After Tropical Storm Lee developed in the Atlantic on Tuesday, AccuWeather forecasters expect it to become a major hurricane by the weekend. Meteorologists break down where it will head.
Published Sep 4, 2023 12:31 PM EDT | Updated Sep 6, 2023 9:33 AM EDT
AccuWeather hurricane experts are putting portions of the northeastern Caribbean on alert for a strengthening Tropical Storm Lee.
On Monday, AccuWeather became the first source to issue a forecast track map for a tropical wave pushing across the central tropical Atlantic which was expected to develop over the next day or so. As this wave traveled through warm waters Tuesday morning, it strengthened to Tropical Depression 13. At 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center named the storm Tropical Storm Lee. The system is forecast to continue to move across the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean over the upcoming week, eventually intensifying into the basin's next hurricane.
Tropical Storm Lee on satellite at 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday.
Factors that will impact strengthening
"Throughout the upcoming week, Tropical Storm Lee will track through an environment with low wind shear, ample moisture and ocean temperatures several degrees above the threshold for tropical development (roughly 80 degrees Fahrenheit). There is not a lot of dry air present across the tropical Atlantic that this feature will have to deal with, which will help it to get its act together," explained AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Strong wind shear values can quickly tear apart organized tropical systems or fight against storms trying to form. A lack of vertical wind shear is optimal for strengthening and tropical formation, and that shear looks to remain low across the western and central Atlantic for at least the next seven days.
Under these combined conditions, this corridor of the Atlantic waters is primed for helping Lee gain organization and strength. However, meteorologists are taking note of one element that could fight against this storm: sinking air.
The downward vertical motion would suppress cloud formation and ultimately curb how quickly a tropical cyclone can develop, similar to how sinking air associated with high pressure promotes clear skies and calm weather rather than supporting the formation of clouds and thunderstorms.
"Areas of sinking air across the Atlantic could inhibit how fast this feature will initially develop. However, this factor by itself should not hinder much after early this week and the other factors supporting development will take over," stated DaSilva.
The potential path of the storm
AccuWeather meteorologists say that Lee can take on a general westward track toward the eastern Caribbean Islands into the weekend.
At this time, the path of the storm is likely to skirt just north of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands as early as later this week or this weekend, including the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda to name a few. Given the nearby pass by the islands, impacts of rain and wind from Lee can spread across these locations.
From Saturday to Sunday, rainfall amounts ranging from 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) can spread to the northern Leeward Islands. Peak tropical gusts to reach the islands are expected to range between 40-60 mph (60-100 km/h) as this storm passes to the northeast over the same time frame. Any shipping pathways along the track of the storm could be at risk for dangerous seas.
This weekend into early next week, the steering winds could take this storm well northeast of the Bahamas and slow the feature down considerably. By the second week of September, it can enter a zone of ocean waters that were recently churned up by the active storm pattern last week.
"Following the active pattern across the [Atlantic] basin last week, we are noticing a pocket of cooler waters in the general vicinity of Bermuda and several hundred miles off the Carolina coast where Idalia tracked late last week. Typically, the ocean water temperatures can rebound fairly quickly this time of year. It is likely that by the time this feature reaches this zone in the western Atlantic by next week, the ocean temperatures will have returned to warmer values," explained DaSilva.
Will Lee impact the United States?
Forecasters say that any potential impacts to the United States and Atlantic Canada will rely largely on the overall steering pattern of winds in place next week.
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A few scenarios can take place into the upcoming week, depending on the expected position of various features and how quickly they move across the region. Latest indications suggest that the storm track could vary across a wide swath spanning from the U.S. East coast northward to eastern Canada, or even skirt away from the coast entirely.
Either way, most of the beaches along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. are likely to have some stronger surf and dangerous rip currents.
"Interests across the Caribbean and along the East coast from Florida to Maine will need to pay close attention to Lee. Depending on the path this system takes, the expected time frame for potential impacts to the United States and Atlantic Canada may be Sept. 13-16," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Peak of hurricane season is approaching
Historically, most tropical activity takes place between mid-August and mid-October in the Atlantic Ocean. Experts consider the peak of hurricane season to fall on Sept. 10.
In past years, notable major hurricanes that formed during the month of September included Irma, Rita, Maria, Ike and Isabel. Hurricane Irma set a dismal record as the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the Leeward Islands, which was then followed up two weeks later by Hurricane Maria.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor this emerging threat in the Atlantic into the upcoming week, and urge residents to check back often for the most up-to-date tropical information.
In previous tropical seasons, the name Lee has coincided with some powerful storms. In 2017, the last time Lee was used, the storm became a powerful category 3 hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic. Before that, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season produced Tropical Storm Lee, which made landfall in Louisiana before losing wind intensity as it moved northeastward towards the Appalachians, bringing heavy rainfall to the mid-Atlantic, including Pennsylvania where over 100,000 people were evacuated due to flooding.
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