weather.com meteorologists
Tropical Storm Idalia is organizing and has developed in the Caribbean Sea, near the Yucatan Peninsula. Idalia is forecast to strengthen early this week as it moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico.
It is expected to make landfall in Florida as a hurricane with heavy rain, storm surge flooding and high winds midweek.
What is the latest on Idalia? The system was named Tropical Depression Ten late Saturday afternoon and strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia late Sunday morning.
It is moving slowly near Cancún and will remain in the area into Monday. Heavy rain extends from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula to western Cuba.
Current SatelliteWatches and warnings are in effect: Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Mexico's northeast Yucatan Peninsula, including both Cancún and Cozumel. This means tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for western Cuba's Pinar del Rio, while a watch is in effect for the Isle of Youth, where tropical storm conditions are possible.
What is its future this weekend: For the next day or so, it may not move much at all, potentially bringing soaking rain to parts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancún and Cozumel, as well as parts of western Cuba.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions are investigating Idalia Sunday and will gather date to help improve the forecast.
(MORE: Interactive Storm Tracker)
Current Storm Status And Forecast PathWhat is its future in the Gulf: The latest data suggest Idalia should finally begin moving north by either late Monday or early Tuesday.
On that track, its center could arrive somewhere along Florida's Gulf Coast Wednesday. After that, most computer models suggest it would take a bend, tracking through Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday or early Friday.
Computer Model Forecast TracksHow strong could Idalia become: Gulf of Mexico water remains very warm, even by late August standards, and the recent Tropical Storm Harold did little to cool the Gulf, particularly in the path of Idalia.
Idalia may also get a boost from its track over the Gulf of Mexico loop current, a northward flowing ribbon of deeper, warmer warmer from the western Caribbean Sea into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
All other factors equal, warmer water can provide more fuel for a tropical storm or hurricane to intensify.
Furthermore, recent computer models suggest wind shear during its northward journey toward Florida may be lower than previously forecast. Wind shear is usually a hostile factor that can weaken or slow a storm's intensification.
Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Idalia to become a Category 1 hurricane, possibly stronger, before its Florida landfall. The National Hurricane Center also noted in its Sunday morning discussion that "There's a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves acorss the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico."
Forecast Path And Ocean Heat ContentPotential impacts in Florida and the Southeast: Some bands of soaking rain could reach parts of western Florida as soon as Monday. Locally heavy rain is also possible in parts of the Southeast not associated with Idalia this weekend into Monday.
Heavier rain appears to begin sometime Tuesday, continuing into Thursday from Florida into parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. That will likely trigger local flash flooding in some areas.
Three to six inches of rainfall, with totals up to 10 inches, are possible for parts of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia from Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Any damaging wind or coastal flooding/storm surge impacts will depend on Idalia's strength and track, but those are uncertain factors this far out. That said, Florida's Gulf Coast is very prone to storm surge, even for modest hurricanes and tropical storms.
(MORE: Recent 'I' Storms Have Been Notorious)
Rainfall ForecastMore detailed information should be available in the next few days.
The best course of action for now is to stay up to date on the latest forecast changes and review and ready your hurricane preparation plans.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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