weather.com meteorologists
Tropical Storm Idalia could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by the time it moves toward a Florida landfall by Wednesday. This forecast has prompted hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches for parts of the Gulf Coast of Florida.
Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain are all expected along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.
The latest on how people are preparing for Idalia can be found here.
Hurricane and tropical storm alerts: Hurricane watches have been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A hurricane watch is issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Florida's Dry Tortugas, to the west of Key West.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and also for the lower Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge, including Key West.
Watches And WarningsStorm surge alerts: Storm surge watches have also been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A storm surge watch is issued when there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere with the specified area within 48 hours.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Water levels could reach the following heights:
-Aucilla River, Florida, to Chassahowitzka, Florida: 7-11 feet
-Chassahowitzka, Florida, to Anclote River, Florida: 6-9 feet
-Ochlockonee River, Florida, to Aucilla River, Florida: 4-7 feet
-Anclote River, Florida, to middle of Longboat Key, Florida: 4-7 feet
-Tampa Bay: 4-7 feet
-Middle of Longboat Key, Florida, to Englewood, Florida: 3-5 feet
-Englewood, Florida, to Chokoloskee, Florida: 2-4 feet
-Charlotte Harbor: 2-4 feet
-Indian Pass, Florida, to Ochlockonee River, Florida: 2-4 feet
-Chokoloskee, Florida, to East Cape Sable, Florida: 1-3 feet
-Florida Keys: 1-2 feet
Storm Surge ForecastWhere Is Idalia now? Idalia strengthened into a tropical storm late Sunday morning near the Yucatan Peninsula and it is intensifying. It is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.
Its center is near the Yucatan Peninsula but has begun to move northward. Heavy rain will continue to fall over portions of the peninsula and into western Cuba.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Mexico's northeast Yucatan Peninsula, including both Cancún and Cozumel. This means tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas.
A hurricane warning is in effect for western Cuba's Pinar del Rio, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth.
Current SatelliteWhat is its future in the Gulf: The latest data suggest Idalia should move northward into the Gulf of Mexico and then turn toward the northeast.
On that track, its center could arrive somewhere along Florida's Gulf Coast Wednesday. After that, most computer models suggest it would take a bend, tracking through Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday or early Friday.
(MORE: Interactive Storm Tracker)
Computer Model Forecast TracksHow strong could Idalia become: Gulf of Mexico water remains very warm, even by late August standards, and the recent Tropical Storm Harold did little to cool the Gulf, particularly in the path of Idalia.
Idalia is also likely to get a boost from its track over the Gulf of Mexico loop current, a northward flowing ribbon of deeper, warmer warmer from the western Caribbean Sea into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
All other factors equal, warmer water can provide more fuel for a tropical storm or hurricane to intensify.
Furthermore, recent computer models suggest wind shear during its northward journey toward Florida may be lower than previously forecast. Wind shear is usually a hostile factor that can weaken or slow a storm's intensification.
The National Hurricane Center noted in its Monday morning discussion that "rapid intensification is becoming increasingly likely before landfall."
Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Idalia to become a hurricane Monday and be near or at Category 3 intensity before its Florida landfall.
(MORE: 12 Things You May Not Know About Hurricane Forecasts)
Forecast Path And Ocean Heat ContentHeavy rain impacts in Florida and the Southeast: Some bands of soaking rain could reach parts of western Florida as soon as late Monday. Locally heavy rain is also possible in parts of the Southeast not associated with Idalia Monday.
Heavier rain appears to begin sometime Tuesday, continuing into Thursday from Florida into parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. That will likely trigger local flash flooding in some areas.
Parts of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas may receive 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
(MORE: Recent 'I' Storms Have Been Notorious)
Rainfall ForecastTornadoes are also a threat midweek. Isolated tornadoes may develop ahead of Idalia on Tuesday across the Florida Peninsula.
The threat for a few tornadoes may persist across parts of northern Floirda Wednesday morning and will spread along the Southeast coast later Wednesday.
Severe Thunderstorm ForecastStay up to date on the latest forecast changes and review and ready your hurricane preparation plans.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
No comments:
Post a Comment