Weather Outside Your Window: Dangerous storms to slam central US to mid-Atlantic over July Fourth holiday weekend

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Jun 30, 2023 1:03 PM EDT | Updated Jul 1, 2023 9:47 AM EDT

Severe weather will continue to cause disruptions and threaten lives and property across portions of the central and eastern United States during the extended July Fourth weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

The ongoing severe weather threat follows a derecho that blasted areas from Nebraska and Iowa to central Illinois and southern Indiana on Thursday. The powerful complex of thunderstorms, which rolled along for approximately 450 miles, produced several hundred incidents of damaging winds and torrential rain, similar to that of a hurricane, tossing trucks and flattening corn fields with wind gusts as high as 100 mph.

A slow-moving storm system will shift from the central Plains to the Midwest this weekend and reach the Northeast early next week. It will trigger thunderstorms and severe weather on its southern and eastern flank, and to the north, a more persistent rain lasting several hours may curtail some outdoor plans.

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More severe storms to target the Midwest through Saturday night

The threat of severe weather through Saturday night will extend from western Missouri to western Virginia and northern Georgia.

The main threats from the severe thunderstorms will be wind gusts that may top hurricane force (74 mph), hail and flooding downpours.

Some of the major cities at a heightened risk of severe weather include St. Louis, Nashville, Tennessee, and Cincinnati.

As of Saturday morning, AccuWeather meteorologists highlighted an area from near St. Louis to just east of Evansville, Indiana as a high risk for severe weather. This will be a very dangerous situation and people living in the area should take extra precautions throughout the day.

"There is still some risk of a derecho developing from the Plains to parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "However, conditions are not as volatile for strong derechos as earlier this week, but thunderstorms will still pack a punch at the local level."

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 100 mph is possible with the storms expected through Saturday night.

Severe storm threat to continue on Sunday

On Sunday, as the storm system continues to inch eastward, the severe weather threat will mainly encompass much of Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware and Maryland, as well as portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Severe weather can dive as far south as northern Alabama and Georgia.

Some of the strongest storms on Sunday will pack wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph, hail and flooding downpours. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust to 90 mph is possible. Occasionally severe thunderstorms can spawn a tornado, but tornadoes through the weekend are likely to be very few in number.

Patches of steady rain will occur near and north edge of the thunderstorms and the track of the storm system. Areas most likely to experience a few hours of steady rain will extend from portions of Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Michigan early this weekend to southern Michigan, northern Ohio, northern Pennsylvania and western New York on Sunday and finally, eastern upstate New York to northern New England on Monday. The rain may persist for several hours this weekend in the Midwest to early next week, putting a damper on holiday weekend plans.

Severe weather threat to reach I-95 on Monday

On Monday, the risk of severe weather will tend to focus on the mid-Atlantic's Interstate 95 corridor as well as the beaches in the region. The major metro areas from New York City to Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Richmond, Virginia, and Raleigh, North Carolina, may have to deal with at least one severe storm into the evening hours.

"Monday's storms could pack a punch in the mid-Atlantic region," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.

Any downpour or storm right at the beach during the daytime may be brief, but flooding downpours and damaging wind gusts as little as a few miles inland can lead to travel delays. The severe storms from the interior would likely push toward the beaches in the evening as the sea breeze diminishes.

Storms may pester New England and South on Independence Day

Since the forward speed of the overall storm system is slow, there may still be some shower and gusty thunderstorm activity to contend with right along the mid-Atlantic coast and especially in New England on Independence Day.

Locally drenching, gusty thunderstorms are likely to erupt over the Southern states as well.

Forecasters strongly recommend that people on the road or spending time outdoors through the Fourth of July keep an eye on the sky and have the means to receive weather watches and warnings due to the potential for changing weather conditions. In some communities, the storms may not only produce frequent dangerous lightning strikes but also knock down trees, trigger power outages and cause minor property damage.