The pair of tropical systems were beginning to lose wind intensity at the beginning of the weekend, and AccuWeather meteorologists say impacts from one of the storms will quickly diminish across Mexico following its close encounter with land.
Published Jun 30, 2023 12:48 PM EDT | Updated Jul 1, 2023 9:52 AM EDT
Two tropical systems, Adrian and Beatriz, continued to roam the eastern Pacific Ocean Saturday morning as one storm in the pair scraped along the southwestern Mexico coast.
Adrian, which became the first named tropical system of the 2023 Eastern Pacific season on Tuesday, was quickly followed up by Beatriz, which formed the next day. The recent surge of activity stands in stark contrast to the first six weeks of the season when there was little happening in the basin.
Beatriz brushes Mexico with rain, wind
As of Saturday morning, local time, Tropical Storm Beatriz was spinning about 45 miles south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, a city that sits just south of Puerto Vallarta. AccuWeather is forecasting the storm to maintain this intensity as it moves to the northwest into Sunday, before quickly losing wind intensity by early week.
Heavy, tropical rainfall will continue for portions of Colima, Jalisco and Michoacan with a risk for flash flooding.
Additionally, wind gusts as high as 100 mph (160 km/h) could lead to power outages and structural damage, while also pushing water onshore, leading to storm surge flooding.
Beatriz peaked at Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale late on Friday and is a 1 on AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes as it brings impacts to western Mexico.
While the core of Beatriz will avoid the tourist hotbed of Acapulco, resorts in other Pacific coastal towns such as Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta will be briefly impacted through Saturday before the storm moves away.
Beatriz will make a second approach to land later in the weekend as it moves by the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula from Sunday into Sunday night.
Further loss of wind intensity is then forecast as the storm heads out to sea, posing no additional threat to land by Tuesday.
Adrian is a hurricane, but no threat to land
Hurricane Adrian, spinning a few hundred miles to the west of Beatriz over the open Pacific, was exhibiting a classic symmetrical shape and packing an eye on satellite imagery Friday morning but has since lost some of its structure.
Hurricane Adrian as seen on AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite imagery from late Friday morning, June 30.
From late Thursday into early Friday, Adrian strengthened rapidly from a tropical storm into a Category 2 hurricane and was packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (170 km/h).
Adrian is already back to a Category 1 hurricane due to the colder ocean waters. With more colder water ahead on its journey to the northwest, the storm's strength will only continue to diminish.
While no direct impacts from Adrian are expected on land in Mexico, swells generated in tandem with Beatriz will hammer the Pacific coasts of the Mexican mainland and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. This will likely result in life-threatening rip currents and rough surf, further imperiling more coastline in North America, following a rash of fatalities in the U.S. in recent days.
The season could turn 'hyperactive' following a slow start
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which begins annually on May 15, was off to a slow start until Adrian and Beatriz arrived on the scene.
According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in tropical weather and seasonal hurricane forecasts, Adrian was the second-latest first named storm to form on record in the basin, trailing only 2016's Agatha, which formed that year on July 2.
Despite arriving a little more than 24 hours later, Beatriz was also behind schedule for the second named storm of the season. Klotzbach tweeted that, on average, the second named storm in the basin forms on June 24.
Even though the season is off to a slow start, AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski is still predicting an active season. A total of 17 to 21 named storms is forecast, above the historical average of 15 for an entire season.
The above-average forecast is mainly due to the expected presence of El Niño, which Kottlowski said could make the season “hyperactive." El Niño often leads to lower wind shear through the heart of the basin, promoting easier development of tropical systems.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
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