Weather Outside Your Window: NYC, Philly and DC at risk for severe weather this week

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Jun 25, 2023 11:47 AM EDT | Updated Jun 27, 2023 4:04 PM EDT

Dangerous weather is forecast to sweep through the East Coast, with some areas of the Northeast expected to be at risk for severe weather once again on Tuesday. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that after the severe weather exits, more wet weather could impact the drought-stricken region.

The jet stream is expected to dip southward across the Great Lakes and the Northeast early this week and remain that way through the final days of June. For those in the Northeast, this is expected to allow for a very different weather pattern than what was experienced during the majority of June.

After severe thunderstorms began across much of Iowa and Illinois on Saturday, producing gusty winds and hail, thunderstorms spread into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into Sunday night. Similar to earlier in the weekend, thunderstorms produced damaging hail and gusty winds from Michigan on south to Tennessee. On Sunday, dozens of storms erupted across Michigan and Indiana, some producing damaging hail, wind and at least one deadly tornado.

Behind the weekend storms, cooler conditions were prevalent from the Midwest to the interior Northeast on Monday. The change in temperature that began on Tuesday for locations like Buffalo, New York, and Columbus, Ohio, is not expected to be as drastic as those farther west; however, temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s rather than the 80s of last week.

GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP

Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+

Of the more than 330 storm reports from Monday across the U.S., the majority across the Northeast included damaging wind gusts and hail, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

As the week progresses, thunderstorms could once again be feisty into Tuesday evening, which will again threaten some of the same cities, like Philadelphia.

Locations right along the Eastern Seaboard will be most at risk for severe weather into Tuesday evening, thanks to the influx of moisture from the Atlantic. Once again, damaging winds will be the most widespread risk, but downpours are also expected to be heavy during this time.

Soggy end to June on the horizon for the Northeast

Even after the severe weather exits the region, wet conditions are forecast to linger across the Northeast into the final days of June.

The same storm helping to produce the severe weather is expected to move through the Northeast, but it will take several days to do so. In fact, it may not be until Thursday or Friday before some areas finally see slightly drier conditions.

While an all-out washout is not expected every day across the Northeast, the moist conditions will favor a couple of heavier downpours. Heavier rainfall may cause ponding on roadways and reduced visibility, both of which would certainly slow travel for motorists in the region.

If the same area were to get hit by those downpours for multiple days, flash flooding could also quickly become a concern. Given the recent dry weather across the area, some pockets of the Northeast can only afford 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time.

Even in the areas that miss out on the heaviest rain one day, dew points are expected to remain on the higher side, in the 60s Fahrenheit, or even the lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. For some Northeast residents, dew points reaching the 70-degree mark can be downright uncomfortable. Relief from the humidity levels may not arrive for the interior Northeast until the latter half of the week, when some drier air finally moves in from Canada.

Communities in the Northeast need the rain

The severe weather and soggy conditions in the forecast this week come after a particularly dry spell across the Northeast.

As of June 20, over 70% of the region was at least abnormally dry, with a total of 34% of the area in at least a moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. A small portion of southeastern Pennsylvania and Maryland was even classified as being in a severe drought.

Looking at the amount of rain that fell over much of the East during the first half of June, it’s no wonder that much of the Northeast is drought stricken. During the first 20 days of June, Hartford, Connecticut, only received 0.54 of an inch of rain, a measly 13% of the historical average for that time of year. Reagan International Airport in Washington, D.C., only reported 0.23 of an inch of rain, which is only 8% of normal.

In the past week, a shift in the weather pattern has brought some more substantial rain to parts of the region, with more than an inch of rain coming to places like Baltimore and Norfolk, Virginia, in just a couple of days.

“Despite the hazards that the rain and thunderstorms could bring, several days of damp weather may prove beneficial for the current drought situation in the Northeast,” Smithmyer explained.

AccuWeather meteorologists say that the wet weather is likely to extend into southern Canada, and hopefully assist with the containment of the wildfires in Quebec.