Sunday, June 11, 2023

Multiday severe threat to take shape across southern US

 By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jun 10, 2023 10:35 AM EDT Updated Jun 11, 2023 8:55 AM EDT








AccuWeather forecasters say that portions of the central United States will have to contend with multiple rounds of dangerous storms in the coming days as opposing air masses collide.

Summerlike heat and robust moisture in place across the Plains and Mississippi Valley will set the stage for potentially explosive development.

"The atmosphere will be primed with sufficient energy to support vigorous storms," said AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton.

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On Sunday, the threat of damaging storms will shift eastward and expand into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Areas at risk from Sunday afternoon onward will include portions of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and much of Arkansas.

Hail and damaging wind gusts on the order of 50-60 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph are the most likely impacts from any storms in these areas on Sunday.

However, a second zone exists where severe thunderstorms may fire up during the day on Sunday. Within this zone, extending from the Denver metropolitan area into western Oklahoma, the risk for hail and damaging wind gusts to 60-70 mph will be accompanied by the chance for isolated tornadoes.

Flash flooding will also be possible within this region because some of this area has been no stranger to severe thunderstorms over the past couple of weeks.

By Monday, this area of concern will extend across a larger stretch of the Plains states.

"Within a swath from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to central Mississippi, severe weather will be possible both Monday and Tuesday, with little change in the overall pattern between the two days," Thornton explained.

Storms during the early week will be able to unload hail, heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and even spin up an isolated tornado.

Of the two days, conditions on Monday look to be more primed for a twister than Tuesday's setup.

"The western portions of this zone in particular could really use some downpours, namely Kansas and western Oklahoma, as drought conditions persist," Thornton added.

Kansas remains the state with the worst drought conditions across the country, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Ninety-one percent of the Sunflower State is experiencing conditions ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought.

For neighboring Oklahoma, almost all of the state's panhandle is under severe drought conditions.

The risk for severe weather will shift eastward by midweek as the pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere undergoes a bit of a shake-up.

"By Wednesday, the corridor of thunderstorms may push its way toward the Southeast or perhaps even the mid-Atlantic coasts," Thornton said.

The positioning of storms on Wednesday will be highly dependent upon exactly where the previous day's storms develop.

Looking ahead to the end of the upcoming week, AccuWeather forecasters will continue to monitor opportunities for damaging weather in portions of the southern U.S.

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