By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Feb 18, 2023 10:37 AM EST | Updated Feb 20, 2023 3:29 PM EST
Fierce Tropical Cyclone Freddy was closing in on Madagascar late Monday, local time, and experts say life-threatening impacts can accompany the formidable cyclone into midweek.
Freddy was churning about 118 miles (190 km) to the north-northwest of Mayotte on the island of Reunion, Monday evening, local time, with the equivalent strength of a Category 3 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Meteo France La Reunion, the government agency responsible for tracking storms in this part of the Indian Ocean, estimated Freddy's maximum sustained winds at 121 mph (195 km/h), with gusts to 173 mph (about 280 km/h). The storm, which had lesser wind intensity compared to Sunday, was on a slightly south-of-west course and moving at a speed of about 19 mph (31 km/h).
Freddy has been closely monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists since its beginnings in the far eastern Indian Ocean, just northwest of Australia, in early February. In fact, Freddy's westward path was considered a bit unusual. No other tropical cyclones observed in this part of the world have taken such a path across the Indian Ocean in the past two decades, according to AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
"Only two other cyclones have taken a track from the eastern Indian Ocean to near Madagascar, and they were Hudah and Leone, also known as Eline, in 2000," Nicholls said.
This image of Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy was captured on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
AccuWeather's team of international experts says that time is running out for storm preparations to be completed from the islands of Mauritius and Réunion (the Mascarene Islands) to Madagascar as Freddy makes its final approach.
"Freddy is expected to bring impacts to the Mascarene Islands starting on Monday, local time, before reaching the eastern coast of Madagascar on Tuesday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said.
The path of the cyclone could put Mauritius at a higher risk of heavy rain and potentially damaging winds when compared to Réunion. However, the latest indications continue to point toward both of the islands receiving a glancing blow from the storm, as opposed to a direct strike. Any slight jog southward in the track of Freddy would heighten the threat to life and property in these areas.
Freddy is forecast to remain a formidable cyclone, likely with at least the equivalent strength of a strong Category 3 major hurricane (maximum sustained winds of at least 110 mph, or 178 km/h) as it reaches Madagascar. AccuWeather experts warn that there will be a significant risk to life and property in the country as a result of the direct strike.
"The general track will place Freddy's landfall between the central and southeastern coast of Madagascar," Smithmyer said.
The cyclone will continue its tear across the country around the middle of the week, sweeping through some of the same areas that faced days of flooding rain and damaging winds from Tropical Cyclone Cheneso in January.
The track of Freddy as seen on AccuWeather's Hurricane Tracker.
Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) can occur along the path of the storm, increasing the threat of flash flooding. Damage to trees and infrastructure will be most extensive near where the center of the storm crashes onshore. Wind gusts can remain high enough even after the storm loses some intensity over land for trees and power lines to topple, especially where the ground is or will become saturated.
"It looks like the worst of the impacts will remain south and east of the country's capital of Antananarivo, but they could still receive 1-2 inches of rain with wind gusts up to 40 mph," Smithmyer said.
Freddy will be the strongest cyclone to threaten the nation since deadly Cyclone Batsirai ripped through the region in early February 2022.
"Last season was a rough one for the country, with six landfalling storms over the span of just a month from January to February," Nicholls said.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy's distinctive eye can be seen right of center on this satellite image from late Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023. (CIRA/RAMMB)
Freddy's legacy may not end beyond Madagascar next week.
"Freddy will likely shift into the Mozambique Channel, where it will continue to gradually track to the west and eventually push into Mozambique by late week," Smithmyer said.
Central and southern portions of that country may be at the highest risk to face Freddy's second landfall by the end of the week, which would mark nearly three weeks since the storm's initial formation.
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