By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Feb 10, 2023 1:32 PM EST | Updated Feb 11, 2023 6:00 AM EST
A pair of storms are forecast to track through the center of the country next week, bringing downpours and severe weather risks along their path. AccuWeather meteorologists say that the most volatile storm of the week may take shape right around the middle of the month.
The first storm in the duo will slide southward along the California coast this weekend. Impacts from rain and snow will be limited during this early stage of the storm's journey.
Early next week, AccuWeather forecasters say that the storm will intensify and gather more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it tracks through the central and southern Plains. Strong winds at the jet stream level will aid in the eruption of rain and thunderstorms across a wide swath of the south-central United States from late Monday through Tuesday.
"As a storm emerges from the Southwest and begins to take shape across the South Central states Monday evening, the threat for thunderstorms will develop," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said, adding that the right atmospheric conditions may come together for some thunderstorms to turn severe.
The most significant risk of damaging thunderstorms is likely to aim at parts of Oklahoma and central and northern Texas during Monday night, followed by the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, according to AccuWeather severe weather experts. Sudden downpours and damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazards, but the potential for isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
There remains some question as to how quickly the air will be able to warm up and become conducive to severe thunderstorm development in the wake of a late-week burst of cold air across the southern Plains. A lack of warm, moist air would favor more isolated incidents of severe weather.
Regardless of the extent of the severe weather risks, soaking rain and gusty winds could result in travel delays in places such as Dallas, Oklahoma City and Little Rock, Arkansas.
"Rainfall totals could range as high as 1-2 inches in some locations from northeastern Texas to parts of Arkansas and Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible in the heaviest downpours," Smithmyer said.
Strong wind gusts could add further headaches to motorists and airline travelers early in the week.
Beyond early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists will be tracking a new storm that will charge across the Western states with accumulating snow for the interior and a fresh push of cold air. This second storm is expected to be the next big weather maker for the Southern states for the latter part of next week.
"This feature can ignite an enhanced severe weather risk from the Gulf Coast states to the southern Ohio Valley," Smithmyer said.
Areas from Houston to Memphis, Tennessee, and Atlanta could all be in the path of potentially damaging storms from the second round of severe weather.
Parts of the South have been hammered by multiple rounds of severe weather in the final two months of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Severe weather this week spawned an EF2 tornado that resulted in "extensive" damage in Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana, approximately 65 miles northwest of New Orleans and 60 miles east of Baton Rouge. AccuWeather forecasters say that warmer-than-normal water in the Gulf of Mexico is one of the factors behind the frequent severe weather. As of Friday, Feb. 10, sea surface temperatures on the Gulf waters were 4-7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average.
The press of cold air associated with this later storm is also expected to result in a wide swath of snow from the interior Southwest to the Plains and Great Lakes region next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to provide forecast updates on both upcoming storms through the weekend.
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