By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Jan 30, 2023 12:41 PM EST | Updated Jan 31, 2023 3:10 PM EST
A quick but intense blast of Arctic air will barrel into the Northeast later this week to deliver quite a cold shock to the Northeast and neighboring Canada, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. The wave of freezing air will serve as a harsh reminder that it’s still the dead of winter despite January producing temperatures of 5-15 degrees above average across the region.
"A shift of the polar vortex will be at the heart of the brief cold blast in the Northeast," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. In this case, a small lobe of the feature will pivot quickly southeastward.
High temperatures tend to range from near 20 in northern Maine to near 40 in New York City and the mid-40s in southeastern Virginia during late January. Instead, temperatures have been poking as high as 15 degrees above those levels at times this month. However, the surge of Arctic air that will be colder than the outbreak at Christmastime is coming for New England and the eastern Great Lakes region, as well as portions of the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic region.
The outbreak in mid- to late December heavily focused on areas west of the Appalachians in the Central states. For the Northeast, as well as a large swath of eastern Canada, this will be an Arctic blast that will hit hard and fast.
Temperature departures from normal as of Jan. 29, 2023.
"There will be places that will be 30-50 degrees colder Saturday morning than they were Thursday afternoon," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said.
For example, in Boston, after a high near 40 on Thursday, temperatures there will dip to 10 below zero on Saturday morning. If the temperature gets that low, it will shatter the daily record of 2 below zero set 127 years ago in 1886. A high in the single digits is likely on Saturday, forecasters say.
In Caribou, Maine, following a high of 20 on Thursday, temperatures will start the day on Saturday at 28 degrees below zero. The record low is 30 below zero set in 1971. Temperatures are forecast to remain well below zero during the day on Saturday.
"At peak during the outbreak from late Friday to Saturday, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will plunge between 30 and 50 degrees below zero where many people live in central and northern New England and could plummet close to an unworldly 100 below zero on top of Mount Washington, New Hampshire," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
People who will be spending any length of time outdoors should be prepared for the extreme cold, which can be dangerous for those with pulmonary conditions, experts warn. The risk of frostbite on exposed skin will be very high with the event from Friday night to Saturday.
Even though the harshest cold will be felt in northern New England, areas as far south as New York City and Washington, D.C., will feel the difference.
Temperatures reached the mid-50s on Monday in New York City, but it will feel like the Arctic early Saturday in Manhattan with a morning low of 3 and afternoon temperatures only in the upper teens. RealFeel temperatures will dip below zero at times as the air is funneled between the concrete canyons, forecasters say. The record low temperatures in Central Park on Saturday morning is 3 set in 1918, if the wind ends up being more northerly, rather than northwesterly. A northerly wind tends to be the most efficient for funneling cold air down the Hudson Valley and right into Manhattan.
Farther south, temperatures may struggle to reach the 32-degree mark in Washington, D.C., on Saturday after starting the day off in the mid-teens.
Wintry precipitation to reach mid-Atlantic, more lake-effect snow for Great Lakes
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to track a series of storms that will bring a substantial amount of ice, travel delays and power outages to the South Central states during much of this week.
The risk of a broad area of accumulating snow or a wintry mix through Thursday has diminished compared to forecasts that were issued last week for the zone from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C. However, as evidenced by the wet snow and rain mix in New York City on Tuesday morning from a passing cold front, there can be a small amount of slush here and there.
The best chance of a swath of periodic snow and ice farther south. One such round will likely occur from Tuesday night to early Wednesday, just south and east of I-95 from New York City to Washington, D.C. Later this week, the wintry mix zone will most likely occur in Virginia.
Only a few flurries will fly in the nation’s capital or Philadelphia this week unless a storm moving across the South strengthens and shifts its track farther to the north. In addition, the blast of dry, Arctic air will arrive and help deflect the storms and their potential for accumulating snow away from parts of the I-95 corridor that are in a snow drought.
The Arctic outbreak will set off bands of lake-effect snow but not in the Buffalo, New York, area as was the case in December. Instead some of the snow belt south of lakes Ontario and Erie will be on the receiving end of localized snowfall.
The cold blast will leave the Northeast as quickly as it arrives.
As an Alberta clipper storm travels across southern Canada, the wind direction will shift from the northwest to the southwest by Sunday afternoon, and temperatures will rebound.
"In many areas, temperatures will surge by 40 degrees on average compared to Saturday morning's frigid levels," Kines said.
Boston will climb into the upper 30s by late Sunday, which is right about average. In Philadelphia, after a Saturday morning low in the single digits, temperatures will approach 40 on Sunday then soar to near 50 on Monday. The normal high in Philadelphia in early February is in the low 40s.
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