By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Dec. 15, 2022 2:20 PM EST | Updated Dec. 15, 2022 2:20 PM EST
A storm moving through the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley early next week may produce a swath of travel-disrupting snow and ice, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
The potential snow and ice will impact parts of the United States where even just a small accumulation of ice or snow can cause big problems. It will also be a preview of a much colder, more wintry pattern coming to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country later in the week.
There will be several ingredients playing pivotal roles in the development of this storm. The necessary atmospheric energy component will move ashore in Southern California and Baja California, Mexico, this weekend with little fanfare. Needed moisture will then drift into the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico as that energy arrives in the southern Plains on Sunday night and Monday. Finally, the third ingredient for a wintry mess, the cold air, will already be in place.
There is still some uncertainty about if or where exactly these ingredients can come together, forecasters say, but there is increasing concern that parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley will wake up Monday morning to snow and ice that could cause significant travel delays.
"It seems like the big question at this point will be how far north moisture will be able to get," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. "If it does, a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow will all be possible across the region."
The area most at risk as of Thursday afternoon includes portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky, including stretches of interstates 30, 40, 44 and 55 and the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma; Fayetteville, Arkansas; and Springfield, Missouri. Any precipitation will move east through these cities from late Sunday night through the end of the day on Monday.
If the moisture is not able to move far enough north, largely due to an area of high pressure that will be in place over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast, the predominant precipitation type will be rain. Forecasters expect the rain to fall primarily farther south over Texas and Louisiana.
Still, any threat of snow in this part of the country is noteworthy because much of this area averages only a few inches of snow for an entire winter. "Even a small covering [of snow] can lead to significant travel disruptions," added Douty.
If this storm reaches its full potential, a few inches of snow and several tenths of an inch of ice are not out of the question. Additionally, temperatures will be slow to rebound in the hours and days following the possible wintry precipitation, so icy spots could linger or redevelop, especially during the nighttime and morning hours.
This potential bout of wintry weather would end up being a preview of a much colder pattern that will follow later in the week and through Christmas weekend for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The cold blast could also lead to additional snow and ice for the nation's midsection and East in the run-up to Christmas.
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