Weather Outside Your Window: Storm to ring in the new year with severe weather, snow in central US

By Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Dec 29, 2022 2:21 PM EST | Updated Dec 31, 2022 5:45 AM EST

Mother Nature will not be wasting any time brewing up another potent storm as 2022 comes to a close and the calendars turn to 2023. After heavy snow caused a travel nightmare around Denver on Wednesday and the eastern United States continues to thaw after a massive outbreak of Arctic air, a multifaceted storm system is expected in the southern and central U.S. early next week.

"Accumulating snow, the potential for freezing rain, flooding rainfall and a threat of severe thunderstorms are all possible, and residents may be wondering if the calendar changed to April instead of January," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham explained.

The storm is first expected to move across the Four Corners region on New Year's Day where mountain snow and valley rain could dampen any festivities. However, as the storm moves east of the Colorado Rockies, it is expected to re-intensify as it moves across the nation's midsection by next Monday.

Springlike conditions and severe thunderstorms to erupt in South

Mild and moist air ahead of the strengthening storm will set the stage for the threat of severe weather Monday afternoon through Monday night.

Afternoon high temperatures could be reminiscent of early spring rather than the middle of winter as the mercury from Texas to Mississippi tops out in the middle to upper 70s. Meanwhile, temperatures farther north in Chicago and St. Louis are set to be March-like. In some locations, the warmth could shatter record highs.

In Texas, Austin will approach the daily record of 81 that was previously established in 2006. Farther north, Chicago could approach or break its record high for Jan. 2 of 60, which was set in 1950.

"Southerly winds are expected to flow out of the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which should put plenty of warm and moist air in place across the South Central states," Buckingham continued to explain.

A large dip in the jet stream pattern, coupled with a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to yield the necessary atmospheric ingredients for severe weather across eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi early next week.

Depending on the exact track and timing of the storm, severe weather may be possible as far north as Missouri and Illinois.

AccuWeather meteorologists warn that cities such as Houston and Dallas, Texas; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Jackson, Mississippi; could be at risk of a few isolated tornadoes, localized flash flooding and damaging wind gusts on Monday. In some areas, winds could gust to an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph.

Tuesday the threat for severe thunderstorms can continue eastward through the Southeast.

“The ingredients aren’t expected to be as favorable for widespread severe weather on Tuesday as compared to Monday, but some communities in the Southeast will still face a risk for damaging thunderstorms,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.

Places like New Orleans, Birmingham and Mobile, Alabama and perhaps at least some western suburbs of Atlanta can see the threat for severe weather on Tuesday.

"As the storm progresses eastward, flooding concerns are expected to rise across portions of the Great Lakes into the middle of next week where a hefty snow base is in currently in place," Buckingham said.

Cold and snowy conditions possible in northern Plains

Residents of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest should be prepared for temperatures to revert steadily to wintry levels following the brief warmup.

As mild, moist air is catapulted into the Southern and Central states early next week, the back side of the storm will have cold and snowy conditions filtering into the northern Plains and east of the Rockies.

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While the exact location of where the heaviest snow will fall continues to be closely monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists, there will likely be a zone of accumulating snow from the Colorado and Wyoming Front Range through the central and northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest between Sunday and Tuesday of next week, according to Buckingham. Some of the heaviest snow will fall on the Colorado Rockies as well as the Wasatch range in Utah, where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 48 inches could be achieved.

In some areas, rain or a wintry mix will precede the snow.

There is the potential for a period of sleet and/or freezing rain across the Midwest from Monday night into Tuesday morning.

As of the start of the weekend, the most likely zone for a period of ice is from northwestern Kansas to southeastern Minnesota and part of western Wisconsin.

People with plans to travel along interstates 29, 35, 90, 94 and 80 on Monday and Tuesday should anticipate delays, reduced visibility from blowing snow and slick and snow-covered roads.