More than half a foot of rain could fall across parts of the central U.S. this week thanks to a pair of storms that will travel through the region.
Published Dec. 5, 2022 12:04 PM EST | Updated Dec. 5, 2022 6:14 PM EST
A pair of storms packing plenty of moisture will overlap enough to bring much-needed rain as well as trigger urban and small stream flooding in a large part of the central United States, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The combination of a stalled cold front and storms moving along that front will lead to a wet pattern from the southern Plains to the Northeast this week. However, as AccuWeather forecasters have been saying since last week, the bulk of the rain will tend to focus on about a half-dozen states.
"A plume of subtropical moisture that extended all the way from the Pacific waters off of Mexico to the middle Mississippi and Tennessee valleys was evident on satellite images on Monday," AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Mark Mancuso said.
This image was captured on Monday, Dec. 5, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
"We often see intense rainfall and flooding events unfold when subtropical moisture is involved," Mancuso added.
A half a foot of rain may fall on some locations from Arkansas to Tennessee and portions of Kentucky, western North Carolina, western Virginia, southern Missouri, northern Georgia, northern Alabama and northern Mississippi this week from Monday to early Friday.
Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches is in store for this zone with locally higher amounts possible, AccuWeather forecasters say. A substantial amount of that rain may fall over the course of several hours.
AccuWeather meteorologists believe that motorists should allow extra time for commutes as excess water on the highways will raise the risk of vehicles hydroplaning. Travel in the major cities of Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; and others in the Interstate 40 corridor could adversely be affected.
There is the likelihood that the heavy rain could also cause some small streams to overflow their banks, flood some neighborhoods and block city streets and secondary roads in rural areas.
At least one-half to two-thirds of the rain that falls this week will occur during the first storm that lasts into Wednesday. The overlap of the rain from the second storm on top of the saturated ground from the first could become problematic and end up being the tipping point for small stream flooding in some areas from Wednesday night to early Friday.
However, most of the major rivers will be able to absorb the rain with few problems, and the rain may prove to be briefly beneficial for transporting goods along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers in the days ahead. River levels will likely rise a few feet or more on portions of the Mississippi, Ohio, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee and others in the region.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 8 inches is most likely to occur in Tennessee and primarily over the Tennesee River basin. Since there are an extensive amount of flood control measures along the river, major flooding is not expected. The Tennessee River flows into the lower Ohio River in western Kentucky, which then empties into the Mississippi River.
"As runoff from the rain this week works its way into progressively larger rivers, a significant boost in water levels is likely along a portion of the Ohio and lower Mississippi," AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Justin Povick said.
Record low water levels occurred along a vast stretch of the lower and middle Mississippi River late this summer and autumn. Water levels were so low that barge traffic was suspended or severely limited on the waterway. A single barge can transport dozens of truckloads of grain and other commodities.
As rain from storms that affected parts of the region flowed into the Mississippi, some temporary spikes in river levels occurred. This week's storm duo may lead to another several-foot surge of water that works downstream from the lower Ohio to the lower Mississippi in the coming weeks.
In much of the region where the soaking rain is forecast to fall, long-term soil conditions range from abnormally dry to severe drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. In portions of Oklahoma where some rain is forecast, drought conditions range from severe to exceptional.
Rainfall since Sept. 1, 2022, has ranged from about 60-90% of normal in the zone where most of the downpours are expected to occur.
The second storm may have enough cold air to work with to produce a strip of snow from the central Plains to portions of the Midwest and the interior Northeast from Thursday to Friday. The exact track of the second storm, as well as how far south the cold air pushes, will determine exactly where the swath of 1-3 inches of snow is most likely to fall.
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