By AccuWeather meteorologist
This AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite shows Subtropical Storm Nicole in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022.
Even though November marks the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, this season refuses to end quietly. As of Monday morning, the rainstorm that AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking over the last few days, located just north of the Caribbean, has been designated Subtropical Storm Nicole by the Nation Hurricane Center. Nicole is the 14th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic season.
A storm that develops some tropical traits but maintains some non-tropical characteristics is known as a subtropical system. As Nicole gradually strengthens and becomes better organized it will likely become fully-tropical before heading for the northern Bahamas and the southeast coast of Florida.
When it was first designated as a rainstorm by AccuWeather meteorologists on Saturday just south of Puerto Rico, the storm deluged the island with several inches of heavy rainfall. On a northward trajectory, it crossed from the Caribbean Sea into the far southwestern Atlantic Ocean early Sunday. AccuWeather forecasters were warning of development in this part of the Atlantic basin for early November weeks ago.
As of late Monday morning, Nicole was packing sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and was located 495 miles (795 km) to the southeast of the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward to 275 miles (445 km) to the east of the center. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h). A hurricane and storm surge watch has been issued for the Florida east coast. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.
Nicole is forecast to first take a winding track toward the northwestern Bahamas and storm-weary Florida.
"The main impacts on the Florida Peninsula will be from torrential rain and strong, long-duration winds as well as the effects of pounding waves on the Atlantic coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "After swinging back over Florida, Nicole is likely to take a northward turn and track along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. late this week and then Atlantic Canada later this weekend."
News of yet another potential tropical hit is likely highly unwelcome across Florida as a large swath of the state continues to recover from the devastation wrought by deadly Hurricane Ian in late September. Before this latest tropical threat approaches the U.S. coast, it will spend much of the early week taking a gradual northwest turn over the southwestern Atlantic, with impacts lingering for several Caribbean islands.
"Nicole will bring additional rainfall of 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) to parts of the Lesser Antilles into early this week, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches (380 mm) in the Leeward Islands," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Additional rainfall, when combined with the amount of rainfall that has already fallen, signal that flooding and mudslides remain a concern for the region.
The subtropical storm is expected to take on more of a westward track later Tuesday. By midweek, forecasters expect the storm will track across the northern Bahamas with its outer rain bands creeping into Florida.
"Rain will move into the Bahamas and Florida around the middle of the week and flash flooding will be a concern," added Douty.
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In addition to rainfall, tropical storm-force winds are expected to overspread the northern Bahamas and a large swath of the Florida Peninsula later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. AccuWeather's current track has the tropical storm possibly approaching landfall in southeastern Florida from late Wednesday night to Thursday morning.
Residents along the Florida Atlantic coast are cautioned to closely monitor the latest forecast updates this week.
While the strongest winds from the storm will closely follow its center, wind gusts of 40-60 mph (60-100 km/h) will move through as the system tracks a significant distance inland and begins to move northward up the Florida Peninsula from Wednesday to Friday. It's not out of the question that the track of the system could wobble into the Gulf of Mexico briefly as it skims along the western Florida coast.
Cities likely to face these wind gusts include places like Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Jacksonville.
"Winds of this magnitude can down trees, power lines and cause transportation delays in some areas," cautioned Douty.
By late-week, the system is likely to transition into a tropical depression due to prolonged interaction with land as it tracks toward the rest of the Southeast. Even with this anticipated transition, the threat for gusty winds and heavy rainfall will not let up.
Forecasters expect the depression to take more of a northeastward track late this week and through the weekend, taking the center of the system on a journey across southeastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas before it emerges once again over the Atlantic Ocean.
Once it emerges over the Atlantic, forecasters are concerned the system will interact with a potent front and lose its tropical characteristics, once again becoming subtropical in nature. Despite losing some of its tropical characteristics, the system will likely still pack a significant punch as it races toward Atlantic Canada with strong winds and heavy rain later this upcoming weekend.
Ultimately in the U.S., heavy rain from this system will likely stretch from the Southeast through the Northeast before spreading into Canada.
In addition to direct impacts from the tropical system this week, strong east winds will pound the eastern coast of the U.S., leading to widespread areas of coastal flooding, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.
While the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and should be winding down, climatologically-speaking, two storms have already grabbed names in November: Lisa and Martin.
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