By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct. 31, 2022 11:13 AM EDT | Updated Nov. 1, 2022 5:58 PM EDT
Tropical Storm Lisa was becoming stronger and better organized on Tuesday in the western Caribbean, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. The storm, the 12th named system of the 2022 season, is forecast to become a hurricane prior to its expected landfall in Central America on Wednesday.
The government of Belize has issued a hurricane warning for the entire coast of Belize.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras, as well as the coast of Honduras from Puerto Barrios to the south of Chetumal. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the north coasts of Guatemala and Honduras. A hurricane watch was in effect from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, with a tropical storm warning in effect from Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico.
As of 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Lisa was located about 220 miles (355 km) east of Honduras' island of Roatan and 330 miles (530 km) east of Belize City. Lisa's maximum sustained winds were hovering at 65 mph (95 km/h) as of the late afternoon, but were up considerably from 45 mph earlier in the morning. The system was moving to the west at a speed of 15 mph (24 km/h). Tropical storm force winds extended outward to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Lisa.
Forecasters have been suggesting since the middle of October that a tropical storm could brew in the region around the end of the month or during early November. On Sunday, as the system began to steadily organize, AccuWeather meteorologists began to refer to the budding storm as a tropical rainstorm in order to help people in the projected path of the storm to begin preparations. Early on Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) dubbed the system Potential Tropical Cyclone 15.
Satellite images on Tuesday showed thunderstorms more centrally located around the middle of the tropical storm, rather than off to the side, as was the case Monday. Forecasters also observed an uptick in lightning near the center of the storm on Tuesday. Forecasters said these developments could be a key indicator that Lisa is poised to gather strength.
Multiple NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be used to investigate the storm through the middle of the week, according to the NHC.
According to the latest forecast track put together by AccuWeather meteorologists, a landfall in Belize is most likely to occur Wednesday night. However, as the storm approaches the coast, winds and seas will build as rainfall ramps up on Wednesday.
Should the system take a more westerly course, rather than track just north of west for a time into Tuesday night, it could reach land sooner and strike Honduras. In this case, the storm's development window could be chopped by 12-18 hours, and the chances that it would become a hurricane would diminish.
Tropical Storm Lisa was becoming better organized on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
The western Caribbean has a history of storms that have undergone rapid intensification, provided the right atmospheric conditions were in place. Meteorologists say it’s not out of the question that this could happen with Lisa.
"As a word of caution, it is also worth noting that this storm is rather small," AccuWeather Meteorologist LeRoy Thornton said. "With tropical systems, this often means that if and when conditions allow it to finally become better organized, a sudden burst of intensification cannot be ruled out."
"Deep water temperatures in the path of the storm are bathlike and in the 80s F while wind shear is forecast to drop off in the northwestern Caribbean," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno added. "These conditions could foster rapid strengthening."
Wind shear is represented by stiff breezes from the same direction or varying directions over a particular area of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear usually inhibits tropical storm development and/or strengthening. Low to moderate wind shear can aid in the development and strengthening of a tropical system.
AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Lisa as a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Central America and less than one for portions of southern Mexico that will be near the path of the storm. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale takes into account only the wind intensity while the RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes and tropical storms takes into account rainfall, storm surge and risks to lives and property as well.
A life-threatening situation could unfold regardless of the peak wind intensity of the developing tropical system as the storm pushes inland over Central America with torrential rainfall that is likely to unleash flash flooding and mudslides.
A general 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain will fall directly in the storm's path with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (300 mm) possible in some localized areas. In addition to urban flooding, streams and rivers are expected to rise while runoff over the hillsides can lead to mudslides. Some of the worst conditions could occur over Belize as well as the mountains as far inland as Guatemala and even parts of southern Mexico.
Winds near the center of the storm and for 100 miles (160 km) or so inland are likely to gust to 60-90 mph (100-150 km/h) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph (160 km/h). At this force, trees and power lines will come down, and damage to homes and businesses can occur.
Lisa is likely to become a tropical depression or rainstorm by Thursday or Friday as it loses wind intensity. From this point, the system could just diminish completely over land or could take a northward turn into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Disruptive winds could then take a toll on the system.
However, if the circulation center of the storm turns back toward the south and survives the trip across southern Mexico or western Guatemala, it could become the third system to retain its name while reaching the Eastern Pacific basin this year -- something that has never happened before on record.
Back in early July, Tropical Storm Bonnie pushed into the eastern Pacific. Bonnie's journey across both basins made it one for the record books, as the storm traveled more than 6,600 miles and became one of only four systems to ever cross over Central America and become a major hurricane in the Pacific.
More recently, in October, Julia survived the trip across Central America and spent a few hours as a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific. Julia was only the second system on record to pass from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin with at least tropical storm intensity in the same season. The storm was blamed for more than two dozen deaths in Central America.
Areas from the Caribbean to the southwestern Atlantic could be a trouble spot for further tropical activity well into November, experts say.
Some meteorological data suggest that waters within a few hundred miles of Florida could be near the middle of such activity during the second week of November. A broad area of low atmospheric pressure is likely in the region with pockets of showers and thunderstorms. Any of these disturbances slowly could evolve into a tropical system over time.
On Tuesday, Tropical Storm Martin formed about 500 miles to the northeast of Bermuda and could become a hurricane prior to weakening later this week.
The Atlantic hurricane season will officially conclude on Nov. 30.
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