Erosion From Hurricanes Ian, Nicole In Florida Is No Surprise, Geologist Says

 Jan Wesner Childs

Published: November 16, 2022

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Damaging erosion to beachfront property that happened along Florida’s east coast in hurricanes Ian and Nicole isn’t a wakeup call, coastal geologist Randall Parkinson says.

It’s a reminder.

“We should not be surprised,” Parkinson said in an interview Monday.

“This has been discussed for 30 years, even longer.”

(MORE: Katrina Survivor Describes Hurricane Nicole Experience)

P​arkinson, based in Melbourne, Florida, works as a consultant and is an associate professor at Florida International University.

The “this” he refers to is sea level rise due to climate change, and its impacts on coastal development.

“Over the last 100 years or more, the effects of climate change have slowly been integrated into the coastal processes,” Parkinson said. “The geometry of our shorelines is now subject to physical factors that it wasn’t previously.”

Water – through waves or storm surge – reaches properties it didn’t before. Seasonal changes in ocean depth or storm activity have greater impacts onshore, as do high tides. All these things, plus hurricanes and other storms, have cumulative effects.

(RECAP: Hurricane Nicole Was A Damaging, Unusual November Strike In Florida)

Volusia County, Florida, home to the famed Daytona International Speedway, was hardest hit by erosion from the back-to-back strikes of Ian and Nicole six weeks apart. Dozens of condominiums, hotels and single-family homes were deemed unsafe after Nicole roared through last week.

Waves lap the eroded beach below the half-collapsed homes of Nina Lavigna, at left, and her neighbor, after Hurricane Nicole swept away sand from the beach and from under foundations, Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022, in Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Florida.

Many had already been damaged by Ian.

Some were completely destroyed. Others were left perched precariously on the edge of sheer sand cliffs, also called scarps.

It's all part of the changing coastal dynamics Parkinson studies.

“If you’re up at 25 or 30 feet, you’ll see that kind of scarping,” he said. “If you’re down around an inlet where the elevations are 2 or 3 feet, what you see there is flooding.”

The Volusia County Property Appraiser’s Office has estimated more than $522 million in damage from Nicole across the county, including along the beaches, where assessments are still ongoing.

Residents have been allowed to return to some beachfront buildings, the county said in a news release Monday, while more may still be added to the list of those considered in danger of collapse or further damage.

“The impact of Hurricane Nicole along Volusia County shorelines was nothing short of devastating,” Jessica Fentress, director of the county’s coastal division, said in a video. “We have had multiple single-family houses fall into the ocean – we had multiple hotels and condominiums evacuated out of fear of collapse. You’ve seen tears, you’ve seen heartache and our beach has truly changed.”

(​PHOTOS: The Worst Of Nicole's Damage)

Fentress and other officials are worried about more bad weather. Hurricane season is coming to an end, but damaging storms can happen any time of year.

“The Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast is one of the planet's storm alleys,” said weather.com senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman. “In the colder months, the increasing temperature contrast between colder air arriving from the interior and still mild air over the Gulf Stream, along with stronger jet-stream plunges, gives rise to these strong East Coast storms.”

These storms can cause erosion and coastal flooding. But it doesn’t take a “storm” to produce high surf or other impacts, Erdman noted.

“A slow-moving pattern with strong high pressure over the Northeast and general low pressure in the Caribbean Sea can produce several days of onshore winds that can eventually lead to coastal flooding along Florida's Atlantic beaches,” he said.

A public facility and life guard tower are seen partially collapsed near the Pirates Cove condominium due to a storm surge by Hurricane Nicole Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022, in Daytona Beach Shores, Florida.

Scientists say climate change is causing hurricanes to intensify more rapidly, and packing them with more rain.

The damage in Volusia County, and the total devastation from Hurricane Ian on the other side of the state in parts of Lee County, are raising questions about the practicality of coastal development and rebuilding.

“I sadly see this will become more and more common, just the catastrophic level of destruction of physical property, people’s entire lifetime savings, of life,” Parkinson said.

“This does not end in a good way … The question is how much can you tolerate? What’s the threshold? I don’t have an answer to that.”

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.