The Empire State has a long history of monster snowfalls. Taking a look back at some of the most historic lake-effect snowstorms in New York can help offer insight into what this storm could unleash.
Published Nov. 16, 2022 4:15 PM EST | Updated Nov. 16, 2022 4:21 PM EST
A potentially historic lake-effect snowstorm is on the doorstep for areas in western New York and parts of Ontario, Canada, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Winter storm watches and lake-effect snow warnings have been issued ahead of this long-duration event, which could cause travel shutdowns and potentially create a new page in the weather history books.
Lake-effect snow events typically occur from the late autumn to the first part of winter when the Great Lakes are still unfrozen and the waters are warm, relative to the colder air flowing across the region from Canada. As of Wednesday, Nov. 16, water temperatures on the Great Lakes were within a few degrees of 50 F.
As the weekend nears and the rest of the atmospheric mechanisms come together ahead of this significant weather event, AccuWeather meteorologists have studied previous storms for any similarities that this forecast could have.
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"Looking back at past lake-effect snow events that resemble the upcoming setup can give clues as to how the event will unfold, specifically which areas may be at risk for the most extreme snowfall totals," AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said.
Here are some of the most extreme lake-effect snowfalls on record for New York.
The historic and deadly 'Snowvember' event
Eight years ago, back-to-back storms developed between Nov. 17 and Nov. 21, 2014. The pair of storms, later nicknamed the "Snowvember" lake-effect snow event, dropped nearly 7 feet of snow across parts of western New York.
The rate of snowfall on the northern edge of the lake-effect snow band was so substantial that many described it as a "wall of snow," the National Weather Service (NWS) reported in a post-storm recap. The wall of snow created a sharp contrast between towns buried in snow and others receiving only a few inches. Snowfall rates in the "wall of snow" exceeded 3 inches per hour, while some neared 6 inches per hour. These stunning snowfall rates continued for not just hours, but days.
By the time the first event concluded on Nov. 19, it was apparent where the highest snowfall rates occurred. In South Cheektowaga, New York, a town located about 10 miles east of Buffalo, 65 inches of snow was measured. Nearly 4 miles to the east, in Lancaster, 63 inches of snow had fallen.
BUFFALO, NY, UNITED STATES - NOVEMBER 21: Roadside Snow view from a car on November 21, 2014 in Buffalo, New York as the death toll attributed to Buffalo snow rises to 13. A brutal blast of Arctic air triggered a lake-effect storm and snow in the states of New York, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. (Photo by Patrick McPartland/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
But nearly 4 miles northwest of Lancaster and just over 2.5 miles to the north of South Cheektowaga, at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, there was a shocking difference. Snow totals were far from the 5-foot mark. Only 6.5 inches of snow fell at the airport during this major lake-effect snowfall event.
As if 5 feet of snow wasn't enough, the second round of lake-effect snow targeted roughly the same area and deposited another 1-4 feet. This brought the combined snowfall total from both events to as high as 7 feet in some of the hardest-hit locations.
In Cowlesville, which is about 20 miles east of Buffalo, 88 inches of snow was measured. This was the highest snowfall amount produced by the storm.
Over a dozen people were killed, and thousands of motorists were trapped in vehicles during the infamous event. Due to the tremendous weight of the snow, numerous trees toppled over and triggered power outages, and hundreds of roofs and structures collapsed, according to the NWS office in Buffalo.
The Buffalo Bills game was moved to Detroit's Ford Field after Ralph Wilson Stadium (now known as Highmark Stadium) in Orchard Park was buried under snow and more than 220,000 tons of snow had to be removed from the team's practice facility.
The Snowvember event was one of the most extreme cases of lake-effect snow on record.
"In terms of the November 2014 snow event, the atmospheric conditions and lake water temperatures present during that event are similar to the ones forecast for later this week," Duff explained. "It's important to note, though, that these events can only be used as a guide."
Snow, just in time for the holidays
One of the most notable lake-effect snowstorms occurred in late December 2001. After a record-warm and nearly snowless November and December, a lake-effect storm impacted the Buffalo area just in time for the holidays.
On Christmas Eve, multiple bands of lake-effect snow developed downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, bringing heavy snow to the Buffalo area and northern New York. Persistent snow bands continued to bring snow to towns and cities located off both lakes through New Year's Day.
Mike Rodriguez digs his car out of a snow pile December 27, 2001 in Buffalo, NY. Buffalo has been pounded by a lake-effect snowstorm resulting in 6 feet of snow so far. (Photo by Mike Groll/Getty Images)
This storm went down in history as the biggest storm on record for Buffalo's airport, as a storm total of 81.6 inches of snow was measured. Christmas lawn ornaments were buried, and all major roads and the airport were closed. Former New York Gov. George Pataki called the National Guard to help Buffalo dig out of the record-breaking snowfall.
In northern New York, snowfall totals reached the triple digits, and one location measured over 108 inches of snow, according to a snowfall accumulation map created by the NWS office in Buffalo.
'One of the most intense and disruptive storms on record'
In 2010, a lake-effect snowstorm brought over 30 inches of snow to the Buffalo area, creating widespread travel delays. While the storm didn't produce nearly as much snow as the previously discussed event, this early December lake-effect snowstorm was "one of the most intense and disruptive storms on record for the Buffalo area," the NWS reported.
West Seneca, a town about 7 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo, totaled 30 inches of snow from this event. At least 7 inches of snow fell during one 30-minute period between 3:30 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. on Dec. 2, according to a local storm spotter.
BUFFALO, NY - DECEMBER 2: Trucks stand still along the New York State Thruway after a five-mile-wide band of lake-effect snow dumped more than two feet of snow and closed a 16-mile stretch of the road December 2, 2010 in Buffalo, New York. Some drivers on the thruway remained trapped in their cars for more than 15 hours. (Photo by John Normile/Getty Images)
Heavy snow fell across the densely populated region, affecting more than 300,000 people and creating a major backup on Interstate 90. It eventually shut down a 15-mile stretch of the highway, which left hundreds of motorists stranded for almost 24 hours.
Lake-effect snow 'smothered' the Buffalo and Watertown area
In 1997, Buffalo and its surrounding suburbs were "smothered" by the "most intense lake effect event of the season" on Jan. 10-14, the NWS wrote. A large dome of Arctic air swept across the northern Plains and Ohio Valley and worked its way into the western New York region while the Great Lakes were still "relatively warm."
Significant amounts of snow fell around Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Around Lake Erie, the most intense snowfall totals were across Buffalo's northern suburbs, where 15-20 inches of snow fell.
The bigger story was the impressive "snow burst" off Lake Ontario. A band of snow stalled off Lake Ontario, which brought remarkable snowfall totals to northern New York across the Tug Hill Plateau. A "record" snowfall total was recorded in Montague, New York, which is about 48 miles northeast of Syracuse, where 95 inches of snow was recorded.
102 inches of snow in one town from a single snowstorm
During the last week of January in 1966, a lake-effect snow event was underway. Little did the people of western and northern New York know that this five-day event would be legendary and make weather history.
While the first two winter storms of the month in '66 brought snow up the Eastern Seaboard, the third storm was the most impactful to New York.
This storm started as a nor'easter, delivering more than a foot of snow to the mid-Atlantic and New England before a low-pressure system closed off around the Great Lakes. The Atlantic moisture that this storm carried was amplified by the moisture from Lake Ontario, which resulted in heavy snow across the Northeast, specifically in New York, The Washington Post reported.
Snowfall totals downwind of Lake Erie were impressive, but the most extreme totals were located on the south side of Lake Ontario.
When the event concluded, Oswego, which is a town just north of Syracuse on Lake Ontario's southern side, had measured 102 inches. This was a record not only for Oswego, but also for New York state.
Syracuse also recorded its greatest four-day snowfall total during this storm when 44.6 inches of snow fell in the city.
Leap Day 2020 brought 4 feet of snow and encased homes in ice
Although the winter of 2019-2020 was generally "uneventful" in terms of lake-effect snow, one event that occurred at the end of February was a "blockbuster," NWS meteorologists wrote in their post-storm report.
During late February, the upper Great Lakes are typically covered in ice, which makes lake-effect snow events hard to come by. However, since most of the cold air associated with the Northern Hemispheric polar vortex was contained farther north during this winter, there was a dearth of ice cover across the Great Lakes. Any intrusion of cold air was immediately going to be greeted with relatively higher water temperatures over the Great Lakes.
"On Lake Erie, there was almost no ice at all," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell said. "This allowed not only unusually heavy snow to stream off the lake but also frozen spray to accumulate as ice on the homes as well."
Houses along Hoover Beach is covered by ice from high winds and from the waves from Lake Erie, Saturday, Feb. 29, 2020, in Hamburg N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
Several homes along the lakeshore in Hamburg were blasted with freezing spray from the strong winds that blew across the lake. Combined with water levels already 4 feet above normal for that time of year, feet of ice and icicles encased homes, which caught international attention.
Off Lake Ontario, the storm brought heavy snow instead of ice. In Croghan, New York, which is just east of Watertown, the storm dumped 42 inches of snow.
Epic lake-effect storm leaves one New York town with 141 inches of snow
In association with a surge of Arctic air in early February of 2007, the longest lake-effect snow event in New York's history occurred and delivered a snowfall of extreme proportions.
The 10-day event spanned from Feb. 3-12, impacting towns just south of Buffalo first and then burying towns downwind of Lake Ontario.
East Aurora, a village located about 15 miles southeast of Buffalo, measured 42 inches of snow from this storm. According to the post-storm recap from the NWS Buffalo forecasters, the majority of the snow that fell downwind of Lake Erie was recorded during the first two days.
In this Feb. 10, 2007 file photo, Dan Lindsley blows snow into a dump truck in Parish, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Duprey, File)
Snowfall totals downwind of Lake Ontario painted a completely different story. A staggering 141 inches of snow was reported in Redfield, New York. This storm quickly gained national attention as other towns in northern New York recorded snowfall totals in excess of 100 inches.
Although the snowfall total of 141 inches is much larger than the 102 inches that fell during a lake-effect snowstorm in 1966, official records from the NWS only account for 24-hour snowstorm totals. At 51 inches, the 1966 total remains the highest 24-hour snowstorm amount for the state.
Although most of the storms listed in this story affected New York state, significant lake-effect snow also routinely occurs in Michigan, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Snowfall records measured over a 24-hour period in those states are also from lake-effect storms. Lake-effect snow also routinely plagues parts of Ohio, Illinois and Ontario, Canada.
These 24-hour snowfall records in New York, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Michigan were all caused by lake-effect snow events.
While a potentially historic lake-effect snow event looms for the weekend ahead, snowfall totals in the triple digits seem unlikely. But one thing AccuWeather meteorologists know for certain is that travel will be difficult to nearly impossible amid the heaviest snow bands.
Motorists should keep up-to-date on the latest forecast ahead of the storm and plan in advance to stay off the roads. Forecasters anticipate this long-duration event may not fully wind down until early next week.
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