It’s been a tough year for the turkey and its sides. Farmers lost 8 million of them to the bird flu, cranberry crops are fighting climate change and inflation isn't making things any better. Here's how it will affect Americans.
Published Nov. 18, 2022 4:21 PM EST | Updated Nov. 18, 2022 4:21 PM EST
Inflation, drought and Avian influenza, also known as the bird flu, will all play a role in the rising cost of a typical Thanksgiving dinner this year and have certainly added stress for farmers in the United States. Yet it might not affect whether holiday staples make it to plates.
Beth Breeding, the vice president of communications and marketing at the National Turkey Federation, told AccuWeather people shouldn’t worry about not getting the food items they need to fill out their Thanksgiving dinner, as the federation doesn't anticipate having any major impacts this holiday season.
Although farmers have lost about 8 million turkeys since February due to the bird flu, Breeding explained that is not necessarily the greatest factor in the cost increase Americans are facing this Thanksgiving.
“Eight million is actually just over 3% of annual turkey production in the U.S.,” Breeding told AccuWeather. “We're predicted, according to USDA, to raise over 212 million turkeys in the U.S. this year. So, while those losses are significant for any farmer that is dealing with them, overall, it does not have a significant impact on the holiday availability.”
(Getty Images/VeselovaElena)
In reality, it is the combination of several events that has contributed to the 20% increase in Thanksgiving dinner costs, according to data from the Farm Bureau’s annual survey report. Droughts that have impacted the growth of turkey feed and the increased cost of fuel and transportation for food, are all responsible for the increase, Breeding said.
“The cost of everything to raise a turkey has gone up this year, particularly grain prices, so corn, soybeans, the things that turkeys eat a lot of,” Breeding told AccuWeather. “And one reason is because of [the] weather. When we do have dry weather and it makes it more difficult for these crops to be successfully harvested.”
The Farm Bureau reported the average cost of this year’s classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 people is $64.05, less than $6.50 per person. Last year’s average was $53.31.
Breeding said the national average for a turkey featured at the grocery store is $0.97 per pound and reminded consumers that they might not even experience the increase in the turkey prices themselves, as most retailers offer turkey holiday deals to attract customers into the store.
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“The bottom line is that if you're looking for a turkey you're going to be able to find one,” Breeding said. “We just encourage you to plan ahead and start shopping early to make sure you get the turkey that best suits your table.”
Turkey, however, is not the only ingredient of Thanksgiving dinner that has been struggling this holiday season. Some cranberry farmers said they've had to adapt to a changing climate in order to keep this dinner staple on the table.
With higher temperatures even in the northern states of the country, cranberry crops haven’t been as successful this year, they noted. The fall seasonal rain isn't enough to repair the damage from the droughts that preceded them during the summer months.
“I think that the pendulum is swinging with climate change, and then in the fall, we've got a lot of rain -- nature has a way of making it up. But nature is eventually not going to make it up,” William Michale McCaffrey, owner of Spring Rain Farm in Taunton, Massachusetts, told AFP.
Keith Mann, the owner of Mann Farms, told AFP the issue is cranberries require a certain chilling temperature so every year the buds can reset and produce flowers and fruit, and that is why they don’t grow any farther south than New Jersey.
“There's a chance that that starts moving up north and the line for commercial production could come closer to us,” Mann said. “One day that could be a real concern. If we go up by two or three degrees, that could become an issue."
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