By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct. 11, 2022 1:11 PM EDT | Updated Oct. 13, 2022 9:04 AM EDT
Widespread showers and thunderstorms, including some that are expected to unleash flash flooding and turn severe, are in the forecast for the northeastern United States this week. The volatile weather will affect some of the largest metropolitan areas in the region including Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, and will also precede a significant cooldown, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
More than 70 incidents of severe weather occurred from the Southern states of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama to the Upper Midwest, according to the Storm Prediction Center. There were several reports of tornadoes from north of Chicago to Milwaukee as powerful storms raced toward Lake Michigan Wednesday afternoon.
The same cold front is heading eastward and is poised to bring storms with high winds and torrential rain in several rounds from eastern North Carolina to eastern New York and New England into Thursday night.
Multiple rounds of windswept rain, some with thunder and lightning, will affect the New York City area Thursday night and could impact the ALDS game at Yankee Stadium between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees. The same storm system triggered a multiple-hour rain delay with the NLDS game on Wednesday between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies in Atlanta.
While the most common risks from the storms will stem from strong wind gusts that can break tree limbs and trigger sporadic power outages as well as torrential downpours that can lead to flash urban flooding, there is the potential for a couple of isolated tornadoes to spin up as well.
Forecasters say that although the risk of tornadoes is low, any twister that manages to develop briefly could be concealed by heavy rain and/or low-hanging clouds.
People commuting or spending time outdoors should stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions and keep up with weather bulletins, experts warn. The AccuWeather app is one such source to get the latest forecasts and weather information.
Both the thunderstorms and showers have the potential to organize into multiple lines that will contain brief periods of strong winds and downpours. In other words, it is possible that some of the severe weather will occur without any thunder or lightning. Areas from the central Appalachians to northern New England may be the most likely to experience torrential downpours without thunder and lightning.
Small hail could accompany some of the strongest thunderstorms as well.
As the line of showers and storms swing through, flight delays will be possible at major airport hubs.
In New England, a longer-lasting period of heavy rain and strong winds is likely to occur as the front swings from a south-to-north fashion to more of a northwest-to-southeast orientation.
Stiff south to southeast winds that occur ahead of the cold front and during the rain can be locally damaging and lead to a period of rough seas and travel disruptions in Long Island, New York, and New England Thursday night into Friday morning.
If it were not for ongoing drought conditions in much of New England, widespread flooding might result. Much of the rain that falls may be absorbed by the landscape. However, in some locations, the rain may still come down so hard and fast that it may quickly run off and lead to flash flooding.
This is most likely to occur in areas where leaves have begun to fall and may block storm drains. A few small streams may also quickly rise given the general 1-2 inches of rain that is forecast to fall in less than 12 hours from Thursday afternoon to early Friday. A substantially higher amount of rain is likely to fall on eastern portions of upstate New York and New England, where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 5 inches of rain can occur.
Where leaves have fallen, the rain can also lead to slick conditions on secondary roads and sidewalks around city streets.
In the wake of the storms, multiple rounds of chilly air will pivot around a large storm that develops at the jet stream level of the atmosphere over the Great Lakes. Since this cold air machine will remain anchored over the Great Lakes, the chilliest air may have trouble pushing to the mid-Atlantic coast and through New England.
For example, at sea level in New York City, high temperatures are forecast to trend downward from the lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday to just the mid-60s by this weekend. Meanwhile, at an elevation of 2,100 feet in the Appalachians, high temperatures in Bradford, Pennsylvania, will trend downward from the upper 60s Wednesday to the lower 50s this weekend and potentially into the 40s next week.
Snow showers are likely to make their presence known in the Upper Midwest starting this weekend, and the first snowflakes of the season could appear in parts of the central Appalachians early next week as well.
Parts of the Midwest will likely record some of the lowest temperatures of the season so far, especially during the daytime hours when clouds and showers dominate. Widespread highs in the 50s are forecast with some northern-tier locations of the Midwest not likely to rise past the 40s this weekend through much of next week.
The weather pattern around the Great Lakes could get rather chaotic with periodic gusty showers, including some that could contain hail. Waterspouts are also likely to develop.
Temperatures will rebound in much of the Northeast this weekend immediately following the rain and storms. The break will allow people to catch up on outdoor activities, including cleaning up the fallen leaves from Thursday's winds. Much colder air from the Midwest is poised to swing into the Northeast early next week.
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