Ian intensified into a Category 2 storm as it approached western Cuba Monday evening. Meanwhile, mandatory evacuations were underway in Florida as the state braced for the strengthening hurricane.
Some of the world’s foremost companies in oil have announced changes in production ahead of Ian’s landfall.
BP Plc stated Monday that the company is shutting down production at the Na Kika and Thunder Horse offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, with Ian forecasted to strengthen into the northeastern Gulf. BP announced it has evacuated all personnel from Na Kika, which produces 130,000 barrels of oil per day, as well as all essential personnel from Thunder Horse, which produces 250,000 barrels per day. Contemporaries such as Chevron Corp. have made their own arrangements, with Chevron transporting all personnel away from its Petronius and Blind Faith platforms in the Gulf. Shell PLC stated Monday that the company is “closely monitoring” Ian, with no current impacts to Gulf operations as of Monday afternoon.
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Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea Monday morning, making a pass by Grand Cayman Islands and bringing some strong wind gusts to the area.
The strongest wind gusts reported on the islands all cracked the 50 mph mark, with gusts reported at 59 mph at Shoreline Drive, 52 mph at Heritage Beach and 50 mph at Bodden Town. Other top gusts were reported at Savannah (48 mph), Yacht Drive (47 mph), Grand Cayman Airport (44 mph) and Georgetown (44 mph). Rough seas caused by Ian's winds washed debris along a road on the islands Monday morning.
Offices of the city of Tampa closed Monday at 5 p.m. EDT to allow for storm preparations. While the offices will be closed, emergency services such as out-of-school camps, sandbag distribution and the Citizen’s Info Line will remain in service. Residential garbage collection will run through noon Tuesday, and one blue city of Tampa garbage cans will be collected. All garbage that isn’t collected should be secured before the storm. Additional details can be found here.
Classes at Florida State University’s Tallahassee campus have been canceled for Tuesday through Friday, the university said Monday in an announcement. It added that the cancellation of classes on Tuesday was “out of an abundance of caution” for students to travel safely out of the area if they choose to leave. When possible, the university will continue to provide campus services, including dining, for students throughout the closure and on-campus resident halls will remain open for residential students.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) greet following the NFL Super Bowl 55 football game Sunday, Feb. 7, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. Tampa Bay won 31-9. The two are scheduled to face off in a week 4 matchup Sunday in Tampa, unless Hurricane Ian changes plans. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have moved practices from the facility at One Buc Place to Miami due to the approaching Hurricane Ian, CBS Sports reported. While Miami is forecast to have experience impacts from Ian, the Tampa area is forecast to bear the brunt of the powerful storm. The Bucs have a Sunday Night Football game scheduled in Tampa on Oct. 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, just three days after Ian is expected to be the most severe hurricane to strike the Tampa area. The team is working with the NFL to possibly move the game if Ian makes landfall near the area, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
In 2021, a game between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints was moved to Jacksonville after evacuating due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints were able to play the game in Jacksonville because the Jacksonville Jaguars were on the road that week. While Jacksonville, Miami and New Orleans all play road games this week, an official site for relocation has not been agreed upon yet.
A satellite image showing Hurricane Ian just after it reached Category 2 force on Monday, Sept. 26, 2022. The storm underwent rapid intensification Sunday into Monday
AccuWeather meteorologists had been warning about the potential for days ahead of time and on Monday Ian officially strengthened enough to meet the National Hurricane Center's criteria for rapid intensification, meaning it added at least 35 mph of sustained windspeed in 24 hours or less.
At 5 p.m. EDT Sunday, Ian’s maximum sustained winds were 45 mph as the storm was about 220 miles (355 km) southeast of the Grand Cayman Islands, with movement at 12 mph. Since then, Ian has graduated from a Tropical Storm to a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as of 5 p.m. EDT Monday-- more than enough to qualify.
The potential for Ian’s rapid intensification led AccuWeather forecasters on Sunday to rate the storm a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes, and a 4 on the scale for the northwest Caribbean. But what does that rating entail? AccuWeather created the RealImpact Scale to provide practical information that residents of storm-stricken environments can use to evaluate threats posed by a hurricane or tropical storm. The RealImpact Scale differs from the widely-used Saffir-Simpson scale, which classifies storms only by wind speed. The AccuWeather scale takes into consideration a host of other factors such as flooding rain, storm surge and economic damages. Using factors such as inland flooding and storm surge, which are more likely to result in deaths and damages than wind speed alone, makes the RealImpact Scale a superior communicator as far as a storm’s potential impact on lives.
Ian’s rating of a 3 out of a potential 5 on the scale means that the storm is expected to bring widespread and substantial flooding. Structural damages to buildings such as mobile homes are also expected, as well as downed trees, power outages and major coastal inundation. The 4 rating for the northwest Caribbean means Ian is expected to bring widespread catastrophic flooding to the region, which may last days to weeks.
AccuWeather meteorologists discuss their latest forecast for Hurricane Ian at their State College headquarters on Monday, Sept. 26, 2022.
Hurricane Ian tracks north in the Caribbean on Monday. (CIRA/NOAA/NESDIS)
Hurricane Ian strengthened to a Category 2 storm Monday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of up to 100 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of 5 p.m. EDT Monday, Ian was moving north-northwest at 13 mph toward Cuba, the NHC said. Ian is currently situated about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the western tip of the island country.
Hurricane watches remained in effect for a stretch of Florida's western coast at midday on Monday as Ian continued to gain strength. AccuWeather forecasters warn that the storm will rapidly gain intensity during the next couple of days and is forecast to become a Category 4 behemoth in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
Hillsborough County, which includes the city of Tampa, ordered mandatory evacuations from coastal communities on Monday that took effect at 2 p.m. EDT.
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor cautioned residents of her city – the largest urban area in the path of Hurricane Ian – that the storm poses a “very serious situation” and could be “a potentially deadly” emergency weather event if people don’t heed warnings from officials.
“We always want to communicate with our residents that the issue that is always 100% in the winning column is Mother Nature and we don’t want to mess with that,” Castor told AccuWeather broadcaster meteorologists Geoff Cornish and Bernie Rayno.
Hillsborough County, of which Tampa is included, has already begun taking steps to prepare for Ian’s imminent arrival, such as ordering a mandatory evacuation of residents in low-lying coastal areas in Tampa and surrounding regions. “We’re telling homeowners and businesses, now is the time to get to higher ground,” Castor said. She explained that the city also is draining down certain areas in anticipation of forecast storm surges of 6 to 10 feet along the Gulf coast. “We’re draining our stormwater ponds, putting water over the dam …Trying to get as much water out of our city as we possibly can,” she said. The Tampa Bay area, she noted, is not immune to hurricane alerts and reminded Floridians “to stay vigilant, prepare as much as possible.”
“We like to rehearse, rehearse, rehearse. We just don’t want to be on that main stage of Ian,” Castor said. “We always use the adage of ‘Hide from the rain, run from the water’.” Watch the full interview with the mayor below:
Hurricane Ian’s path will see a “fork in the road” after tracking over Cuba, with one directing the storm toward Florida’s Big Bend and the other steering Ian toward an area that hasn’t seen a major hurricane landfall for over a century. “It hinges on the strength of this trough coming across the Midwest,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. A trough is a region of relatively low atmospheric pressure.
When the trough lifts out, the steering flow will weaken and Ian will slow. However, even if Ian loses intensity, Rayno and AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski stressed the impacts would still be dangerous. “Just because it goes from a [Category] 4 to a [Category] 2, the surge will be like that of a four because it takes sometimes 24-36 hours to dissipate,” Kottlowski said. “Just because it weakens, doesn’t mean the surge will weaken. The surge could be just as strong as if it were a Cat 4.”
State officials are warning residents to be on the lookout for price-gouging at the pump, grocery stores and elsewhere, and have activated a hotline to report such abuse amid hurricane fears.
U.S. Rep. Val Demings, of Florida, reminded people on Twitter Monday that “some people try to take advantage during emergencies” by promoting price-gouging schemes during emergency weather outbreaks. Floridians can report cases of severe price hikes on essential goods by calling a hotline set up by the state attorney general’s office -- 1(866) 9NO-SCAM.
Florida residents were filing up extra gasoline containers in preparation for Hurricane Ian. (AccuWeather)
Florida’s price-gouging law specifically applies during a state of emergency for common necessities, such as food, water, gas, ice and lumber.
The Federal Communications Commission said scammers often use a host of outlets for schemes, from phone calls and texts to email and even door-to-door scams. Tips to avoid scams include seeking verification from those claiming to be a federal official and remembering that agencies do not call or text asking for financial information. Verification is key, officials said, whether it is knowing you are dealing with a legitimate government official or insurance company representative.
Gouging of gasoline and other essential items is also common during the aftermath of hurricanes, officials said.
A resident uses plastic as protection from the rain in Batabano, Cuba, Monday, Sept. 26, 2022. Hurricane Ian was growing stronger as it approached the western tip of Cuba on a track to hit the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane as early as Wednesday. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
The outer bands of Hurricane Ian have begun to impact portions of Cuba as of Monday afternoon. The outer-most band of Ian is bringing precipitation to the southern portion of the country in cities such as Cruces, Calimete and Pinar Del Rio. As Monday progresses, another band is expected to bring more precipitation and high winds to southwestern Cuba.
Cayo Largo del Sur, a small Cuban island located just south of the main island, has already reported wind gusts over 30 mph as of 1:50 p.m. local time. AccuWeather forecasts Ian to make landfall in far western Cuba within the next 18 hours as a Category 3 hurricane.
Category 1 Hurricane Ian as seen on AccuWeather radar on Monday, Sept. 26, 2022.
While Tampa has a history of being spared the worst of hurricanes, tropical systems have not left the area entirely untouched. Storm surge, or the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, is infamous for causing destruction even outside the path of a storm. More than a century ago, Tampa saw just that from the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane. Water rose 10.5 feet in downtown Tampa as the hurricane slammed into the coast north of the city, destroying a majority of the seawall and damaging buildings in the floodwater’s path. At the time, the population of the five-county area had been some 135,000 people, according to the Tampa Bay Times. The population has since expanded to 3.38 million in 2021, according to census data.
Track of the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane. (NOAA)
AccuWeather is currently forecasting the Tampa Bay Area to see 6 to 10 feet of storm surge. Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer has chased a number of ferocious hurricanes over the years, including 2021’s infamous Hurricane Ida. Now, Ian will be the next storm he documents. Timmer discussed the storm’s looming storm surge threat, adding that even if Hurricane Ian passes just to the west of the Tampa Bay area, it’s still going to cause flooding around the periphery.
Hurricane Ian continued to gain strength on Monday, as its maximum sustained winds were up to 85 mph, a 10 mph increase from Monday morning. Ian was located about 120 miles west-northwest of Grand Cayman Island and about 195 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. The storm was moving to the west-northwest at a speed of 13 mph and its hurricane-force winds extended about 35 miles from the center. The government of the Cayman Islands has changed the hurricane warning for Grand Cayman to a tropical storm warning, the National Hurricane Center said.
Ian is forecast to undergo rapid intensification and become a powerful Category 4 hurricane Tuesday into Wednesday. But as Ian inches closer to Florida, it is forecast to weaken to a Category 2 hurricane. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that even though Ian will likely lose some intensity before making landfall, torrential downpours, destructive winds and storm surge will all still be major risks for people living in central and northern Florida.
Ian has been a named storm since it developed in the Caribbean Sea this past Friday and it isn’t going away anytime soon. Although Florida is the U.S. state facing the greatest danger from Ian, other parts of the Southeast, and even states up into the Northeast, will face some impacts from the storm. Although it will be considerably weaker after moving over land later this week and into the weekend, Ian is still predicted by AccuWeather forecasters to bring a substantial flood risk as a tropical storm and eventually a tropical depression.
“Ian will slow down over the Southeast states, but as long as it maintains some forward speed, rainfall will be heavy but not over the top,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. “However, if Ian stalls over the Southeast for a day or two, there is the potential for much heavier rainfall to fall over a broad area, including interior locations.” AccuWeather meteorologists say widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected through much of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and southern Virginia, including in the Appalachian Mountains. Cities such as Roanoke, Virginia, to Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina, and Augusta, Georgia, could all receive several inches of rain.
School districts in the Tampa and Sarasota area of Florida are canceling classes for thousands of students to allow officials to prepare school buildings as emergency shelters for when Hurricane Ian strikes. Hillsborough County, which includes Tampa, closed its schools Monday and Sarasota County, located just to the south, announced it was closing its schools Tuesday “out of an abundance of caution.” It’s unclear how long they will need to be closed, although officials anticipated needing the buildings at least through Thursday. In all, 312 schools will be closed.
Hillsborough County school buses will help transport evacuees to shelters while nutrition staff will prepare meals for those at the shelters, WFLA reported. “As we continue monitoring Hurricane Ian’s track and potential impacts, residents are encouraged to review their emergency plans and prepare their go-kits,” said Jonathan Lewis, Sarasota County administrator.
Officials in Hillsborough County, which includes the Tampa area, on Monday ordered mandatory evacuations in anticipation of Hurricane Ian, which is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday morning.
The order takes effect at 2 p.m. Monday for those living in coastal Zone A. Also, emergency management officials are recommending a voluntary evacuation for those living more inland in Zone B. “This is not a drill,” Hillsborough Emergency Management Director Tim Dudley said during a morning news conference, adding that shelters won’t open until 2 p.m. and that residents should not show up before then.
Map of evacuation zones for Hillsborough County, Florida. (Hillsborough County Emergency Management)
Hillsborough County has five evacuation zones, and officials were directing residents to its website to double-check which zone they are located in. Within minutes, the site was down due to the heavy traffic on the site. “Please be patient, the website is experiencing a high influx of traffic and load times may vary,” Tampa officials posted on social media.
A mandatory evacuation order for at least some zones was also expected by Tuesday in nearby Pinellas County, which includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater, officials said Monday.
Hurricane Ian is taking a course toward Florida’s western shore after it made a northeastward curve in the Caribbean, according to AccuWeather forecasters. There have been roughly 160 hurricanes, not including tropical storms, that have affected Florida, according to a historic database provided by NOAA. Of these 160, only 17 have made landfall on Florida’s west coast, north of the Florida Keys. With Ian's path projected to stay along Florida's west coast, AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell described it as "very unusual track," adding that most storms typically travel northeast or northwest, not up the coast.
While there have not been as many landfalls on the state’s western coast, that’s not to say that the storms that crashed ashore there didn’t pack a punch. Several historic landfalls from Irma in 2017 to the major hurricanes Michael (2018), Charley (2004) and Wilma (2005) have slammed the western side of Florida, endangering lives and causing catastrophic damage.
For Florida, major impacts from Hurricane Ian are likely to come in the form of extremely heavy rain and destructive wind. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall east of the Ian’s center and because of this, cities such as Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville could all have a general 4-8 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall of this intensity can easily lead to street and river flooding, especially in low-lying areas. Winds associated with Ian will arrive in southern Florida by Tuesday afternoon and central Florida by Wednesday morning.
Peak wind gusts will range from 60 to 120 mph from Tampa to Tallahassee. The winds are expected to produce widespread damage, as well as long-lasting power outages. Susceptible infrastructure may also suffer major damage in western Cuba and into parts of the western coast of Florida. AccuWeather forecasters say that an increase in wind shear across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico could act to decrease the hurricane’s wind intensity as it nears land.
NASA officials said Monday that the Artemis I rocket and Orion spacecraft will be moved into the agency’s vehicle assembly building to keep them out of the harsh weather that Hurricane Ian is forecast to deliver as well as give NASA employees time to prepare for the storm. Officials said that the process to move the spacecraft would begin at 11 p.m. Monday.
“Managers met Monday morning and made the decision based on the latest weather predictions associated with Hurricane Ian, after additional data gathered overnight did not show improving expected conditions for the Kennedy Space Center area," NASA officials said. “The decision allows time for employees to address the needs of their families and protect the integrated rocket and spacecraft system. The time of first motion also is based on the best predicted conditions for rollback to meet weather criteria for the move.” Rolling the massive rocket back to the vehicle assembly building will once again delay the maiden voyage of NASA’s newest moon-bound rocket. NASA has yet to announce a new launch date.
In this photo provided by NASA, Crawler Transporter-2 is seen outside the gates at Launch Pad 39B as teams configure systems for rolling NASA's moon rocket back to the Vehicle Assembly Building on Sept. 24, 2022, at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. NASA mission managers decided Monday, Sept. 26, to move its moon rocket off the launch pad and into shelter due to Hurricane Ian's uncertain path. (Joel Kowsky/NASA via AP)
As of 8 a.m. Monday, Ian was a Category 1 storm in the Caribbean Sea, located about 90 miles west-southwest of the island of Grand Cayman and about 275 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian is expected to undergo a period of rapid intensification, a process defined by the National Hurricane Center as when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph (30 knots) in a 24-hour period.
By Tuesday morning, AccuWeather meteorologists say Ian will be a Category 3 hurricane near the western edge of Cuba and eventually a Category 4 storm later this week. That means Ian’s maximum sustained winds could jump from 75 mph Monday to anywhere from 111 to 129 mph Tuesday morning, which is the range of a Category 3 storm’s winds according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The last time there was a Category 4 storm in the Gulf of Mexico was in August 2021, when Hurricane Ida was churning over the waters.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents to make preparations as soon as possible. While the exact point of landfall isn't certain yet, DeSantis said it is important to make preparations regardless. "Don't think if you're not in that eye that somehow you don't have to make preparations, because the last thing we want to see is it start to really bear east quickly and then have folks who are not prepared," DeSantis said in a press conference Sunday.
The governor also noted there will be broad impacts throughout Florida so residents should "not only continue these preparedness efforts but also take the time to know their zone and know their home." A state of emergency has been declared for the entire state of Florida and an emergency was declared for the state by President Joe Biden.
As Ian continues to strengthen and inch closer to Florida, hurricane and tropical storm watches have been put in place. In western Cuba, a hurricane warning has been put in place ahead of Ian’s landfall. A tropical storm warning is in effect for parts of central Cuba. In Florida, a hurricane watch spans from just north of Tampa to just south of Sarasota. Farther south, a tropical storm watch is in effect for Cape Coral, Fort Myers and Naples. A storm surge watch stretches from the Everglades National Park, along the west coast of Florida to Palm Harbor, which is just north of Tampa. Key West and surrounding islands are under a tropical storm warning as of Monday morning.
As Ian treks through the Caribbean, its eye will largely avoid an area known to wear tropical systems down. Referred to as the hurricane graveyard, the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba can prove to be difficult for storms to move through without falling apart to some extent.
However, Ian is currently steering toward western Cuba, which has, relatively, less mountainous terrain. For this reason, AccuWeather forecasters believe the terrain may have a minimal effect on the overall strength of the storm before it enters the bathlike waters to the north of the island.
At 5 a.m. EDT, Ian strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea with sustained winds of 75 mph. Ian was moving northwest at 14 mph and was located about 90 miles southwest of Grand Cayman Island and 315 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
As Ian moves into the western Caribbean, conditions are set to be extremely favorable for strengthening, AccuWeather forecasters warn. “By Tuesday, Ian may be a dangerous major hurricane,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty explained. Ian is the fourth storm to reach hurricane status so far this season in the Atlantic, joining Danielle, Earl and Fiona.
Residents across Tampa, Florida, had a beautiful weekend with plentiful sunshine just days before the impacts of Hurricane Ian are forecast to be felt across the region. Temperatures Saturday were around 90 degrees, while Sunday temperatures remained in the upper 80s. Monday will be similar to Sunday which will give those in the area the perfect weather to put final preparations in place in anticipation of Ian on Wednesday.
Hurricane Ian will be the latest first continental hurricane landfall of the season in the United States in 20 years. The last time the mainland U.S. had its first landfalling hurricane this late in the season was when Hurricane Lili made landfall near Intracoastal City, Louisiana, on Oct. 3, 2002. Lili was the first and only hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. during the 2002 season. Since then, there have been a handful of seasons that produced zero hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S., most recently in 2013 and 2016.
Hurricane Lili is seen on satellite making landfall in Louisiana on Oct. 3, 2002. (Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team,NASA/GSFC)
The formation of Tropical Storm Ian on Friday brought the seasonal total of named storms in the Atlantic basin so far this year to nine. The 2022 season has been slower than average in terms of tropical storm formation. By mid-September in the hyperactive 2020 season, the full list of predetermined storm names had been exhausted and meteorologists were forced to dip into the Greek alphabet to name storms. That practice was discontinued prior to the start of the 2021 season, which was also quite active. At this point last year, forecasters were on the S storm, which turned out to be Hurricane Sam, a powerful and long-lived storm that stayed out to sea.
This season also went the entire month without a named storm in August, a rare feat that has only happened twice before since the satellite era began in 1960. The season started to see an uptick in activity on Sept. 1 when Danielle formed, the first named storm in the Atlantic since Colin in early July. An average hurricane season according to NOAA is one that has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. AccuWeather meteorologists have predicted there will be up to 12 named storms for the 2022 season, which runs through Nov. 30.
AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite image of Ian when it was a tropical storm.
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