The hurricane will pound Cuba and rapidly intensify. AccuWeather forecasters say a number of factors will influence its strength as it heads for Florida, but excessive rainfall, winds and storm surge are all expected.
Published Sep. 25, 2022 10:07 AM EDT | Updated Sep. 26, 2022 8:19 PM EDT
Hurricane Ian continued to rapidly intensify on Monday evening, strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane as it barrelled toward Cuba, with conditions continuing to deteriorate on the western portion of the island.
Over the course of 24 hours, 5 p.m. Sunday through 5 p.m. Monday, Ian's maximum sustained winds jumped from 45 mph to 100 mph. The criteria for rapid intensification requires the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone to increase by at least 30 knots within a 24-hour period. Ian's maximum sustained winds increased by roughly 47.8 knots, which computes to 55 mph.
Hurricane watches were upgraded to warnings for a stretch of Florida's western coast Monday evening, including Tampa Bay, and a hurricane warning was issued for the Dry Tortugas, an island in Monroe County, Florida, as Ian continued to gain strength as the fourth hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather forecasters warn that the storm will continue to rapidly gain intensity during the next couple of days and is forecast to become a Category 4 behemoth in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
Due to the potential for rapid intensification, as well as a host of other factors, forecasters have rated Ian a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes and a 4 on the scale for the northwest Caribbean.
As of 8 p.m. EDT Monday, Ian had sustained winds of up to 100 mph -- up from 85 mph earlier during the day -- and was moving north-northwest at 13 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. Ian was located about 155 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 35 miles from the storm's center, while tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 115 miles.
After a historically quiet start to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, a flurry of tropical activity has changed the course of the season recently, and Hurricane Ian is no exception.
With the looming threat of Ian to the U.S., Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a pre-landfall state of emergency for the entire state on Saturday afternoon and urged residents to be prepared for Ian's impacts. DeSantis also stated Sunday that he has activated the National Guard to help with the landfall, as well as power crews to aid with power renewal post-storm.
The storm formed in the central Caribbean on Friday, after the system first became noteworthy several days prior, when it remained a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located just east of the Caribbean Sea. Shortly thereafter, AccuWeather meteorologists recognized it as a possible threat to the United States, and that remains the case as the storm has turned northwestward.
While Ian is a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for now, forecasters caution that there is a high likelihood of that changing. In recent days last week, the storm's strength and ability to stay organized had been hindered by persistent wind shear, which frequently limits the strength of tropical systems. However, that has recently changed, with intense thunderstorms now developing around the storm's center, a sign of intensification. As Ian moves into the western Caribbean, conditions are set to be extremely favorable for strengthening.
"A quick uptick in strengthening is expected early this week as Ian moves into the western Caribbean, where low wind shear and very warm water are in place. This will raise the likelihood of significant impacts in the western Caribbean, and eventually the United States," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty explained.
"By Tuesday, Ian may be a dangerous major hurricane," Douty also cautioned.
Some of the storm's worst impacts may occur in western Cuba, where Ian is likely to be rapidly strengthening as it moves northward over the island. Because of this, a hurricane warning was issued for portions of the island Sunday morning.
Conditions in western Cuba are likely to begin deteriorating as early as Monday afternoon, with flooding rainfall and increasingly strong winds moving ashore.
Tuesday morning may bring the worst conditions, with destructive winds and a storm surge of over 6 feet in some areas. In this area, wind gusts reaching 120-140 mph (195-225 km/h) appear likely, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 150 mph (240 km/h) possible in the most impacted spots.
Moving toward midweek, the focus will quickly turn to the United States, where landfall is increasingly likely. Ian is expected to miss most of Cuba's high, mountainous terrain that often disrupts tropical systems, allowing the storm to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane.
However, what happens afterward will depend largely on the exact track that Ian takes. This will be determined by a southward dip in the jet stream across the United States, which will help act to pull the storm northward and into the coast. Just how quickly this interaction happens will determine the track of Ian, as well as how strong the system is when it reaches land.
As an additional factor, more wind shear will likely be in place across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico, which could act to decrease the hurricane's wind intensity as it nears land. Whether Ian reaches this wind shear or not before making landfall could make the difference between a major hurricane striking a densely populated area, or a system with less wind intensity.
"If the jet stream is able to dip southward early, Ian could be steered into the west coast of Florida before interacting with high wind shear, causing the hurricane to be much stronger at landfall. On the other hand, a slower jet stream arrival could allow Ian to drift toward the northern Gulf Coast, where high wind shear would drop the wind intensity prior to landfall," Douty explained, noting that very tiny track differences could make the difference between the two scenarios.
Regardless of Ian's wind speed at landfall, major impacts are likely to come in the form of extremely heavy rain. As is often the case with hurricanes, Ian's heaviest rainfall is expected to fall east of the storm's center. Because of this, cities such as Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville could all have a general 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rainfall, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall of this intensity can easily lead to street and river flooding, especially in low-lying areas.
In anticipation of the rainfall and other landfall impacts, Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach announced a mandatory campus evacuation for Monday. In Tampa, Hillsborough County Public Schools, as well as county government offices, will be closed for much of the week.
Meanwhile, storm surge may be an even more significant threat, regardless of Ian's ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. With several days of onshore winds, coastal flooding could be the most severe and far-reaching impact as Ian crawls northward.
"Based on a track with the eye of a major hurricane just offshore of Tampa, the Tampa Bay area can expect a water level rise of 6-10 feet," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
"If the track we have now holds up, with the eye a bit farther offshore of the 1921 Hurricane, the water level rise would likely be less in Tampa Bay, comparatively speaking," Kottlowski said. The 1921 Hurricane brought a water level rise of about 11 feet in the Tampa area. Given Ian's projected track, the worst conditions in terms of water level rise are likely to extend to the north along the Florida west coast, perhaps through the Cedar Key area.
Nearly 200 miles to the northeast of Tampa Bay, areas along the St. Johns River, especially the Jacksonville, Florida, region may be at risk for significant storm surge. The combination of stiff easterly winds and heavy rain can push river and estuary levels to the point of significant flooding.
Because of the persistent threat of storm surge along the Gulf coast of Florida, in addition to widespread damaging winds and flooding rainfall, Ian has been a designated 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States, meaning AccuWeather forecasters believe the storm poses a high risk to life and property across a significant portion of Florida.
Along with the likelihood of flooding and high winds directly from Ian will be the potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the Peninsula, especially were pockets of dry air allow the sun to emerge for a time.
AccuWeather forecasters began warning of the potential for a hurricane to threaten Florida early last week in order to put people on alert to take the necessary precautions to save lives and protect property. As Ian strengthens, the entire AccuWeather forecasting team is urging those in the path of the storm to stay vigilant and heed the advice and orders of local officials.
Beyond Florida, slow movement of Ian will cause a host of problems over the southeastern U.S. late this week into this weekend. Prolonged rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in some locations, and an ongoing risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be a concern from Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas.
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