By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep. 8, 2022 1:21 PM EDT | Updated Sep. 9, 2022 4:15 PM EDT
A serious flooding threat is expected to develop across the bone-dry southwestern United States due to a substantial influx of moisture from Tropical Storm Kay, located in the East Pacific near the coast of Baja California, Mexico.
Some of the worst flooding is expected in Southern California, and while Kay will not make landfall in the U.S., it will still make an unusually close approach to the Golden State and provide some needed relief from the recent extreme heat wave.
Rounds of rain and wind are forecast to pound portions of Mexico and the United States as Kay churns near the Baja California coast through Friday.
As of Friday morning, Kay remained a large storm that had sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), making it a tropical storm, and was moving north-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. Kay was located about 235 miles (380 km) south-southeast of San Diego.
Across Mexico, tropical storm warnings were in effect south of Bahia Kino along with parts of the east and west coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday morning.
The center of Kay made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane near Bahia Asuncion in Baja California, Mexico, on Thursday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. Kay has since weakened to a tropical storm and will continue to move northward over the next couple of days, generally paralleling the Baja coast.
Impacts from Kay will extend from the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico up into parts of the southwestern U.S.
Southern California braces for Kay's glancing blow
As Kay continued to churn northward, the impacts from the tropical system were predicted to be significant in parts of the U.S., specifically Southern California.
On Thursday, some outer bands from Kay were already sweeping across southern portions of the Golden State. As Kay continues to move northward, rain is likely to become more widespread.
Tropical moisture will help to bring thunderstorms as far inland as central Arizona and southern Nevada, impacting cities such as Phoenix and Las Vegas. However, the heaviest rain is likely to center on Southern California.
"Despite the loss of wind intensity as Kay moves northward, the impacts to California will be notable," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
The last named tropical system that came close to San Diego was Hurricane Nora from September 1997. Nora made landfall as a tropical storm on the Baja Peninsula of Mexico and continued to move northeastward, with the center of the storm moving into southwestern Arizona.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches of rain are expected across Southern California, including in cities such as San Diego and Los Angeles. Both cities, and many others across the area, average less than a quarter of an inch of rain over the entire month of September.
Based on the current AccuWeather forecast, Kay’s approach toward California will be the closest that any tropical storm has gotten to Los Angeles since a storm named Hyacinth in 1972, according to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell.
Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common in the mountains of Southern California, but some localized amounts as high as 8 inches will be possible. An AccuWeather StormMax™ of 10 inches is forecast in some very localized areas.
Due to the potential for flash flooding, Kay has been rated as a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the U.S.
The strongest wind gusts in the United States from Kay are also expected to be in the higher elevations of Southern California. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will be possible, especially in the mountains, AccuWeather forecasters say. In the higher terrain wind gusts could near 80 mph.
The thunderstorms and gusty winds pushing into the region could bring additional risks.
"Gusty winds could also fuel an elevated fire threat, based on how dry it has been across the region," explained Buckingham.
More than 97 percent of the state of California is experiencing moderate drought conditions or worse. according to the latest update by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The addition of strong winds can fan any ongoing wildfires or any new fires that spark.
The wave of wet weather and increased moisture should eventually bring some relief to drought and assist with wildfire efforts. The Hemet, California area, which is about two hours east of Los Angeles and where the Fairview Fire has been burning since earlier this week, is forecast to receive some rain from Kay.
The wet weather from Kay also comes on the heels of an unprecedented heat wave. Extreme temperatures across the southwestern U.S. crushed long-standing records and incited record-setting energy demand in California.
Mexico slammed by damaging winds, flooding rain
Kay strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane (minimum sustained winds of 74 mph) on Monday as it paralleled the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico. Portions of the peninsula were being hit with heavy, tropical rainfall through the middle of the week.
Maintaining its intensity, the storm made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane near Bahia Asuncion, on Thursday afternoon, local time, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. As Kay re-emerged over the waters of the Pacific, interaction lead to a loss of wind intensity and Kay was downgraded to a tropical storm early Thursday evening.
The Baja California Sur government told AP that more than 1,600 people were evacuated to shelters prior to Kay's arrival. There were no reports of injuries, but rising waters and landslides made some roads impassable.
"Kay is a large storm. Continued interaction with land and northward track into cooler waters will cause Kay to gradually lose wind intensity over the coming days," said Buckingham. Despite this, wind gusts of as much as 60 mph can extend northward to the Mexico-California border.
This water vapor satellite image shows Kay bringing rain to Mexico's Baja California Peninsula on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022.
Flooding rainfall will deluge continue the peninsula through Saturday, with widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches. Locations between the towns of Loreto to San Felipe could see as much as 8-16 inches of rain. The higher elevations may be most susceptible to the higher rainfall totals, including the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (500 mm).
Due to the flooding rainfall and gusty winds, Kay is a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
Weather conditions began to improve in Baja California Sur early Friday, but it won't be until Kay starts to turn westward late in the weekend that much of Baja California will begin to experience lesser impacts from Kay. Dangerous seas and rip currents are likely to persist for western-facing shores into early next week
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