Fiona strengthened overnight and on Saturday was packing 60-mph sustained winds and threatening to dump 8-12 inches of rain on parts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Published Sep. 16, 2022 8:40 AM EDT | Updated Sep. 17, 2022 6:32 PM EDT
Tropical Storm Fiona continued to strengthen Saturday morning prompting a hurricane warning to be put into effect for Puerto Rico and a hurricane watch to be issued for the Dominican Republic. The storm was expected to strengthen further and take a turn that will send it through the northeastern Caribbean.
AccuWeather forecasters warned that the storm’s strong winds and heavy rains, as much as 12 inches (305 mm) in some spots, could bring life-threatening conditions to Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic and have rated Fiona a 2 for the Caribbean on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Forecasters stated that these islands, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands which was issued its own hurricane watch Saturday morning, would get slammed with tropical downpours that can pose a significant flood and mudslide risk to lives and property.
On Saturday, one man was found dead in the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe after heavy rainfall in the area attributed to Fiona caused flooding, local authorities stated. The man was found dead after his house was swept away by floods, and video footage from the island showed a river bursting out of its banks. There have been reports of 19 inches (482 mm) of rain on the island.
After strengthening, Fiona was packing 60 mph (95 km/h) sustained winds on Saturday afternoon, with gusts even higher, and was churning westward at 8 mph (13 km/h) about 90 miles (145 km) southeast of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from Fiona's center.
Overnight Friday into Saturday, Fiona delivered tropical storm conditions to the Leeward Islands, but the storm's center had moved west of the island chain by Saturday morning.
The tropical storm is the most significant tropical system to impact the Caribbean so far this Atlantic hurricane season, which has been unusually quiet. AccuWeather meteorologists have upped the intensity of Fiona at its closest approach to land in the northern Caribbean, with the storm now expected to be at Category 1 hurricane strength (maximum-sustained winds of 74-95 mph or 119-153 km/h) by late Sunday.
In addition to the hurricane watches, tropical storm warnings, which were put into effect on Friday, remain in place for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm warnings also remained in effect for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, extending as far southeastward as Guadeloupe, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Early Saturday morning, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters posted an eerie video from their flight through Fiona overnight Friday, which showed frequent flashes of lightning illuminating the clouds and cockpit of the airplane.
Fiona is expected to continue to strengthen and is expected to reach hurricane strength as it passes close to the southwest coast of Puerto Rico, where beaches were shut down and officials opened shelters, according to The Associated Press. Theaters and museums were also closed as Fiona approached and officials cautioned residents to stay indoors as conditions deteriorate.
Forecasters say how quickly the storm takes a jog to the north will determine whether it makes landfall in western Puerto Rico, far eastern portions of the Dominican Republic or somewhere in-between.
Along Fiona's path, its circulation will encounter 4,000-foot mountains on Puerto Rico and 10,000-foot mountains on Hispaniola. These high mountains will exert a drag on the system and allow dry air to mix into the storm's circulation. Because of these conditions, the storm may lose some wind intensity for a time later this weekend.
Workers oufit the doors and windows of a Marshalls department store in Old San Juan, Puerto Rico, with storm shutters as Tropical Storm Fiona closed in on the island Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022.
Regardless of Fiona's exact path, a swath of 60-80 mph (100-130 km/h) wind gusts is expected to stretch across Puerto Rico, eastern and central portions of the Dominican Republic and into the southeastern Bahamas into early next week. Gusts nearing the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph (160 km/h) will be most likely closest to where Fiona's center passes by.
Loose outdoor objects should be properly secured or stowed away ahead of Fiona's winds, which are at a high enough level for some tree damage, power outages and minor structural damage to occur.
There is every indication that the storm will pack torrential downpours across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean, with the heaviest rain likely where the terrain is the most mountainous in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Non-flooding rainfall, although disruptive, can be beneficial where there have been few downpours this summer. However, a general 8-12 inches (200-300 mm) of rain is forecast to fall on much of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches (600 mm). Rainfall of this magnitude will trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Even 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) poised for the Virgin Islands and Haiti can lead to localized flooding and debris flows, forecasters warn.
Given an anticipated significant flooding threat as well as the potential for damaging winds, AccuWeather forecasters have rated Fiona a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean.
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands will feel the brunt of the impacts of Fiona through Sunday. From Sunday to Monday, Fiona will likely take a turn to the north and spread flooding rainfall and damaging winds into portions of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Fiona’s path toward Puerto Rico comes nearly five years to the day since Hurricane Maria left much of the island in ruins. While Fiona is far from the powerful storm Maria was when it made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Sept. 20, it still poses a significant threat.
Puerto Rico's last brush with a tropical system was nearly one year ago, when Tropical Storm Peter brought 3 to 6 inches of rainfall to various parts of the island from Sept. 19-22, 2021. In early August 2021, Tropical Storm Fred passed through the island, causing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall as well as power outages.
After Fiona tracks through the Caribbean, AccuWeather forecasters expect the storm to take a more northerly path which will put the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas in line for tropical rain and hurricane-force winds. After that, all eyes will be on whether Fiona will make any turn to the U.S. mainland.
So far the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has paled in comparison to the previous two years. Last year at this point of the season, some 20 named storms had developed in the Atlantic basin. Though September 2022 has seen a relative flurry of tropical activity, there has not been a hurricane within striking distance of the U.S. mainland yet this season, and August was a historically inactive month, which went without a single named storm for the first time in 25 years.
Another metric meteorologists use to gauge the overall intensity of a hurricane season is ACE, or the accumulated cyclone energy of each named storm in a hurricane season. Given that there have been just six named storms this year, the 2022 ACE value, which stood at 31.1 as of Sept. 16, according to Colorado State University, was also dramatically trailing the pace of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which finished with a value of 145.7.
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