Following Fiona's deluge from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico, AccuWeather meteorologists say the United States should be shielded from a direct blow but that Bermuda may not be as fortunate.
Published Sep. 18, 2022 1:56 PM EDT | Updated Sep. 18, 2022 4:51 PM EDT
AccuWeather meteorologists are putting Bermuda on alert for a potential brush with a hurricane during the latter part of the week -- and even though the threat of direct impacts to the United States has lessened, beaches up and down the Eastern Seaboard will still feel Fiona's effects.
Forecasters project Fiona, which became the Atlantic season's third hurricane Sunday morning, to unload up to 2 feet (600 mm) of rainfall in Puerto Rico before tracking northwestward into the western Atlantic Ocean. The storm's center is expected to pass near or just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands early this week as it continues to gain wind intensity, perhaps reaching Category 3 major hurricane status (maximum-sustained winds of 111-129 mph or 178-208 km/h) for a time.
Late last week, AccuWeather meteorologists were analyzing two scenarios at play with Fiona's path once it crossed the northern Caribbean -- one that whisked the storm out to sea and another that caused Fiona to sit and spin in the western Atlantic for days, before possibly turning toward the east coast of the United States.
Now, forecasters say the atmospheric puzzle pieces are starting to come together and give a clearer picture of Fiona's path during the middle and latter part of the week.
A plunge of cool air associated with a cold front is expected to arrive in the Northeast just in time for the official start of fall on Thursday, Sept. 22. AccuWeather's expert team of meteorologists knew that the timing of this front would be key in determining which scenario played out and say its projected speed is promising for shielding the U.S. from direct impacts.
"Fiona will likely interact with the incoming cold front later this week, causing the storm to pick up speed and turn northeastward, potentially passing close to Bermuda," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
Bermuda and Atlantic Canada are being put on alert for the possibility of direct impacts from Fiona, with Bermuda being first in line to feel the storm's effects by week's end. Less than two weeks ago, Bermuda had a close encounter with powerful Hurricane Earl, though the center of the storm stayed far enough away for the worst of the rain and wind to stay over the open waters.
AccuWeather's current EyePath® for Fiona puts Bermuda in line for drenching tropical downpours, with a majority of the islands projected to receive at least 2 inches (50 mm) of rain from Thursday to Friday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 6 inches (150 mm), which can lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas.
Most of the rain that falls should be beneficial, however, as the island nation captures and recycles rainwater since there are no natural reservoirs or springs.
"Strong winds will impact Bermuda later this week as Fiona accelerates northward," Pydynowski said.
How close the center of Fiona brushes past Bermuda will determine the exact severity of the winds, but current projections place the region in line for wind gusts of at least hurricane-force (maximum-sustained winds at or above 74 mph or 119 km/h) from Thursday through Friday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 120 mph (195 km/h).
Forecasters encourage residents to secure or stow away outdoor items that could turn into deadly projectiles in such winds. Any shift in the track of Fiona farther away from Bermuda would lessen impacts from the wind, but closer to the island, could put the region in line for more severe wind impacts.
Strict building codes in Bermuda allow the region to withstand a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane (maximum-sustained winds of 74-95 mph or 119-153 km/h) with minimal impact and damage. During its closest approach to Bermuda, AccuWeather meteorologists have Fiona forecast to be a Category 3 major hurricane.
As Fiona tracks north and then northeast across the western Atlantic Ocean, the sea will be churned up significantly, resulting in an expansive swath of coastline being at risk for dangerous surf and rip currents from Bermuda to the Bahamas and the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.
The United States East coast beaches will experience high waves, strong rip currents, minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding around times of high tide much of this week as Fiona passes by offshore, according to Pydynowski.
Experts urge beachgoers to heed all advisories hoisted along the beaches and avoid venturing into waters that are not supervised by lifeguards at this point in the year. Operators of small craft may also need to exercise caution.
The southeast U.S. was brushed by two weak tropical storms, Bonnie and Colin, earlier in the season, but the country has dodged any more significant impacts. Earl was the closest approach of a hurricane so far this season, and it stayed about 800 miles away from the East coast. Still, the storm stirred dangerous surf and rip currents, which resulted in at least two fatalities.
Beyond this week, AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close eye on whether Atlantic Canada could be next in line for impacts from Fiona by the upcoming weekend. There is the potential for Fiona to pack even stronger winds at this point in its life cycle as it interacts with the cold front sweeping into the Northeast. At this point, interests in Atlantic Canada are encouraged to keep close watch on Fiona's track this week and be ready to make necessary preparations.
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