By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
While localized downpours have hit some parts of the Northeast in the last week, for others, drought conditions continue to worsen. More widespread wet weather could be on the way, including for areas that have missed out on recent rains; but along with this rain potential comes the risk for flooding.
The same storm that produced severe weather though Saturday in the Midwest and produced a tornado south of Davenport, Iowa, will shift into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. Soaking rainfall is expected to spread from Indiana and Michigan in the morning to central New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland by the afternoon.
Along the way, the storm is likely to also spark some thunderstorms that would be capable of turning severe during the afternoon and evening from Buffalo, New York, to Nashville.
While some thunderstorms may contain hail or damaging wind gusts, the most widespread impact is likely to be torrential downpours. While any downpour could lead to water in low-lying areas, for some in this corridor, the threat for flooding is even higher.
Portions of the area affected, especially in Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia, have been hard hit by rain so far in August. Cincinnati reported 4.74 inches of rain in just two days and has already recorded more than 6 inches of rain so far this month. Charleston, West Virginia was deluge with rain just a week ago, recording 4.44 inches of rain in less than 48 hours which lead to water rescues and a state of emergency declaration. Rainfall in southeastern Kentucky at the end of July lead to historic flooding and killed at least 37 people.
"Given the recent heavy rains, these areas could be more susceptible to flooding with Sunday's thunderstorms," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo.
The wet weather is forecast to linger across portions of the Ohio Valley into Monday, but the majority of the storm will instead shift into the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.
"The steadiest rain is likely to follow the track of the storm across interior portions of the Northeast and into northern New England," said LoBiondo.
However, showers and thunderstorms are likely to reach all the way to the Eastern Seaboard.
Along the Interstate 95 corridor, in cities like Philadelphia and New York, Monday is likely to be the wetter day. Monday's downpours could lead to ponding on roadways as well as localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas. Travelers should also be alert for reduced visibility in a heavier downpour.
While the wet weather would dampen those with outdoor plans early in the week or for some students' first days of school, much of the area could use the rain. Just over 50% of the Northeast region is currently abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The area most at need for the rain in this part of the country is in southern New England. A engulfing 99% of the state of Rhode Island is in a extreme drought, while 75% percent of Massachusetts is in a severe or extreme drought.
Since July 1, Boston has only reported 0.89 of an inch of rain. The average amount of rain normally seen during this time frame is over 5 inches.
The exact track of the storm into Tuesday will determine how much rain these areas in southern New England might received to help alleviate the persistent drought.
If the dry conditions continue through the remainder of August, the first signs of fall in the region could be impacted.
AccuWeather long-range meteorologists warned earlier this month, with the release of the 2022 Fall Forecast, that dry conditions and lingering warmth could bring a delay in peak of fall foliage.
"If the dry conditions were to worsen over the next month or so, it could endanger the vibrancy of the fall leaf colors," explained LoBiondo.
For those looking to get outside and enjoy the last few weeks of summer, drier conditions are likely to return to the Northeast for the second half of the week.
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