By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug. 30, 2022 1:36 PM EDT | Updated Aug. 31, 2022 3:33 PM EDT
A budding tropical system over the central Atlantic, dubbed Invest 91L, is likely to become a tropical depression or storm over the next several days, potentially ending a historic run with no named storms in the basin, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The system was spinning several hundreds of miles east of the Leeward Islands, and, if it strengthens further in the coming days and becomes an organized tropical storm, it will be given the name Danielle -- the fourth name on the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season list.
In this wide view of the Atlantic Ocean from Aug. 31, 2022, the most likely candidate for tropical development in the short term was a tropical wave (lower center). North Atlantic disturbances (upper left of center) were running out of time, while a tropical wave near Africa (lower right) was a few days away from organizing. (AccuWeather RealView™ satellite).
Atmospheric conditions have been too hostile to support tropical development across the basin in recent weeks, and thus far no tropical depressions, named storms or hurricanes have formed during the month of August. The Atlantic Ocean has not had a named tropical system spinning across the basin for 59 days straight since July 2.
Should the system fail to develop by the end of August, it would be only the third such season without a named storm in August since the satellite era began in 1960. The other two years were 1997 and 1961.
"This system has a high chance of development over the next five days, but development through Wednesday evening is not a guarantee," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
"Satellite images revealed robust and likely gusty thunderstorms associated with the system on Tuesday," Douty said. "However, the feature was being attacked by strong southwesterly wind shear."
The wind shear was causing the zone of showers and thunderstorms to be stretched from southwest to northeast. In order for the system to become better organized, showers and thunderstorms would need to be wrapped around a notable center.
The national Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will investigate the system with aircraft and crews as necessary.
The Bermuda high, located over the middle of the Atlantic, is likely to steer the system and its showers, thunderstorms and increasing winds to the northeast of the Leeward Islands late this week, and then northeast of the United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend before skirting past the Bahamas early next week.
As next week progresses, steering breezes may help turn the system more to the north and away from the Bahamas, the U.S. and Canada. Even though this is the most likely path, the exact moment that the system changes directions will depend on a non-tropical storm and dip in the jet stream forecast to develop over the southeastern U.S. It's possible that the northward path may become blocked by those weather features later next week. In such a scenario, the system could approach the U.S. Atlantic coast, causing more substantial impacts.
Since the long-range track could bring the feature within a couple of hundred miles of Bermuda, interests in the island nation, as well as cruise and cargo ship operations are being urged by forecasters to monitor its progress. Depending on the strength of the system and its proximity to Bermuda, seas and surf could increase during the middle to the latter part of next week.
Water temperatures in the path of 91L are above the 78-degree Fahrenheit threshold that forecasters consider favorable for tropical development. Given that, and provided that wind shear and dry air do not interfere with the strengthening of the system, there is potential for it to become the first hurricane of the season, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
There were a few other tropical trouble spots that could develop in the Atlantic in the coming days.
Another potential candidate for a tropical storm may arise over the central North Atlantic during the first few days of September. This system is not likely to grab the name Danielle ahead of 91L, but that chance is not quite zero. Following Danielle, the fifth name on the list for this season is Earl.
A pair of disturbances -- one situated less than 100 miles off the mid-Atlantic coast and the other located 500 miles east of the mid-Atlantic coast -- will run into less favorable conditions for tropical development. AccuWeather forecasters no longer expect either feature to become better organized.
Similarly, a tropical wave over the Caribbean, which tracked all the way from the western coast of Africa, was being torn apart by strong northerly wind shear Tuesday. That system is expected to drift into Central America as a batch of showers and thunderstorms prior to having any chance of developing into a more organized tropical system.
Additional tropical waves will continue to push off the coast of Africa throughout September, and most have at least a chance to develop given that conditions are becoming less hostile for tropical systems in general over the Atlantic basin. AccuWeather meteorologists expect a notable uptick in tropical systems during September and October with at least some activity expected to linger through much of November. AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting a total of 16 named storms -- six to eight of which could become hurricanes.
AccuWeather forecasters say it's not a question of if another tropical system will form this season, but rather when one will develop. Their answer: soon, very soon.
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