By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published May 24, 2022 11:56 AM EDT | Updated May 26, 2022 3:28 PM EDT
The 2022 East Pacific hurricane season began less than two weeks ago on May 15, and AccuWeather meteorologists are already tracking one area of interest in the basin. Forecasters say one zone, in particular, stands a significant chance of spawning the first named storm of the season, which may go on to strike southern Mexico during the last days of May.
Satellite imagery on Wednesday depicted several large clusters of showers and thunderstorms roaming the waters south of Mexico. On Thursday, those scattered storms continued to largely remain offshore from Mexico's Pacific Coast. Some slight spin was noted in the mass of clouds, which could indicate the early stages of tropical development. Forecasters expect this trend to continue into the weekend.
"The area of most significant concern is near the southern coast of Mexico where low pressure is expected to develop over the next few days," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
AccuWeather's Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite showed showers and thunderstorms gathering just south of the Mexico coast and west of Guatemala and El Salvador over the East Pacific basin Thursday, May 26, 2022. (AccuWeather)
Forecasters analyze a couple of key factors in the atmosphere to determine whether an area of low pressure will strengthen into a tropical depression or storm. These include sea-surface temperatures, the depth of warm water in the path of the low and wind shear.
"Conditions should be conducive for this low to soon become better organized and develop into the first tropical depression and potentially the first tropical storm and hurricane of the season," Douty said.
Sea-surface temperatures in the area are more than sufficient for tropical development, and as of Wednesday, they were generally around 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) in this part of the Pacific Ocean. At a minimum, a sea-surface temperature of 79-80 F (26-27 C) is needed for the formation and maintenance of tropical systems.
While strong wind shear is inhibiting tropical development across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, lighter wind shear to the south of Mexico across the eastern Pacific Ocean will support more favorable conditions for tropical development into the end of the month.
The first name on the list for the 2022 eastern Pacific hurricane season is Agatha. A system is named and becomes a tropical storm when maximum sustained winds at the center of its circulation reach 39 mph or greater.
"There is concern that the brewing tropical threat can make a turn to the north and impact the southern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Oaxaca this weekend or early next week," Douty said. "Depending on the final intensity of the system, it may have the potential to bring significant impacts to the region, especially in terms of flooding across the mountainous terrain."
If the system strengthens into a tropical storm or hurricane, then strong winds can disrupt power and cause damage to buildings along the coast close to where the storm ultimately moves onshore.
These strong winds can also kick up dangerous surf along the entire southern coast of Mexico, making it dangerous for swimmers to enter the water and for boaters to venture offshore.
Forecasters warn of hazards even if the system fails to develop or peaks in strength as a tropical depression.
Regardless of the strength of this feature, an uptick in downpours is likely to occur along the southern coast of Mexico during the final days of May, which alone can lead to a higher risk of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous areas.
AccuWeather's expert team of meteorologists is also eyeing another area in the eastern Pacific farther to the west, well offshore of southwestern Mexico, which may compete to earn the first name on this year's list.
"There is lower confidence on a tropical cyclone forming in this area, although it remains possible. If this system develops, it should remain well away from land and be short-lived," Douty said.
Even though anything that might develop won't impact land, AccuWeather forecasters advise anyone in the shipping industry who might be navigating these waters over the next week to monitor the area of concern and reroute if necessary to avoid rough seas.
For the 2022 East Pacific tropical season, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a normal to above-normal hurricane season. Fifteen to 19 named storms are expected to form with the possibility of six to eight of them reaching hurricane force. The normal count of named storms in the basin is about 15 storms, with eight achieving hurricane status.
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