By AccuWeather meteorologist
Relentless and unseasonable heat has baked large portions of India this spring, and AccuWeather forecasters say a significant swath of the country is on the precipice of yet another brutal heat wave.
Climatological spring in India did not begin on a temperate note. In a report released earlier this month, meteorologists from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) found that March 2022 was the hottest March for India as a whole since 1901. The average high temperature in India climbed to a staggering 3.35 degrees Fahrenheit (1.86 degrees Celsius) above the climatological average.
As the calendar flipped to April, the unseasonable heat did not loosen its grip on the country. Forecasters say the warmth is set to kick into high gear by midweek and exacerbate the ongoing heat wave across a large part of the nation.
A northward bulge in the jet stream will allow unseasonably warm air to settle into place over much of India this week. The jet stream, combined with a significant area of high pressure at the surface, will keep heat in place and allow the sweltering air mass to get even hotter with time.
“Heat will ramp up in India over the next few days with temperatures in New Delhi forecast to surpass 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius) from Thursday to Sunday,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Thomas Geiger said.
School children cover themselves with a scarf as protection from the sun in Prayagraj, in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, Thursday, April 21, 2022. Many parts of India are experiencing heat wave conditions with temperatures hovering above 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit). (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
New Delhi, like much of the rest of northern and central India, has already encountered more than its fair share of heat so far this spring. As of April 26, there have been only two days throughout the entirety of April in which the daily high temperature in India's capital city did not reach at least 100 F (38 C). However, the city has yet to hit 110 F (43 C) or more this year.
The all-time record high temperature for April in New Delhi is 114.1 F (45.6 C), according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls. While that record may remain just out of reach this week, just how close temperatures are forecast to rise is concerning.
While the city does typically encounter high temperatures in the upper 90s F (36-37 C) by late April and the occasional temperature over 100 F (38 C) is not uncommon, its overnight low temperatures have been well above normal for much of the month.
New Delhi's average temperature so far this April is running an astounding 9.1 F (5.0 C) above normal, according to Geiger.
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The combination of above-average heat during the daytime and no considerable cooling time during the night is what has made the heat so far this April so anomalous.
When temperatures do not fall low enough overnight, there can be little to no true heat relief for residents across the affected areas. This is especially the case in large cities or highly urbanized areas that experience the urban heat island effect.
The urban heat island effect describes the process by which a large amount of building materials, including brick and asphalt, in an area absorbs heat throughout the day and is then slow to release that stored heat at night.
This means that people who find themselves overheated during the day and do not have access to air conditioning or cooling centers will likely find no natural relief at night.
While the worst of the upcoming heat will center over portions of northern and central India, forecasters say other regions of the country are not completely in the clear.
A schoolgirl holds an umbrella and covers herself with a scarf as protection from the sun in Prayagraj, in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, India, Thursday, April 21, 2022. Many parts of northern India are experiencing heat wave conditions with temperatures hovering above 45 degrees Celsius (113 fahrenheit). (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
In Mumbai, located along India's western coast, temperatures are forecast to soar into the middle 90s F (34-36 C) for much of the week. Even Bengaluru, a high-elevation city located in southern India, will experience high temperatures in the mid-90s F (34-36 C), which are a few degrees above average.
“A dome of high pressure has parked itself over the area,” Geiger explained. “This has led to clear skies and a lack of precipitation.”
With clear skies and a lack of rain to moisten the ground, the unobstructed sunshine is able to bake the parched ground and send surface temperatures soaring higher than normal.
“Less winter precipitation in northern India than the previous winters resulted in less soil moisture,” Nicholls explained. “This allowed heat to build faster this year than in 2021 and 2020."
When heat builds quickly and is slow to fade, serious health concerns begin to arise.
“Prolonged heat is a particularly dangerous situation as heat is the leading cause of death out of any weather phenomenon,” Geiger said.
AccuWeather forecasters urge residents to learn the warning signs for heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke and to seek medical attention if necessary.
India’s worst heat waves occurred in 2015 and led to at least 2,081 fatalities, according to Nicholls. However, those heat waves developed closer to the start of summer in May and early June.
Air quality across India on April 27, 2022. As shown in this image, northern India is experiencing Unhealthy (red shading) to Dangerous (purple shading) air quality. (AccuWeather)
“The duration and early start [of the heat] is noteworthy,” Nicholls said.
Along with high temperatures, prolonged high-pressure systems also cause winds to become calm or stagnant. With no air movement to help clear out pollutants, air quality typically takes a major hit during heat waves.
Worsened air quality, when combined with extreme heat for the middle of spring, will increase the danger for vulnerable populations through the weekend.
Forecasters say there isn't much good news on the horizon for residents hoping for cooler air.
"A brief change in the weather pattern can bring some relief around next Tuesday or next Wednesday," said Nicholls. "Any relief looks to be brief as heat is expected to return for the first full weekend of May."
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