By AccuWeather Meteorologist
Published Mar. 8, 2022 10:09 AM EST | Updated Mar. 8, 2022 6:05 PM EST
Frequent downpours are in the forecast for rain-starved parts of the Southeast this week, and while some heavy thunderstorms are expected to bring beneficial rain for some, including parts of Florida that have been dealing expansive wildfires in recent days, AccuWeather forecasters caution that the storms will also bring the risk of flooding.
While some cities in the inland Southeast, such as Atlanta, experienced a fairly wet February with 5.29 inches of rain falling as opposed to the average of under 5 inches, those along the coasts have not had nearly as much precipitation.
Portions of the Southeast have been experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, particularly close to the Atlantic Ocean. Jacksonville, Florida, reported only two-thirds of the average rainfall in the month of February, and just a third of the normal in January. Savannah, Georgia, and Wilmington, North Carolina, both received just over an inch of rain each last month, which is under 40% of the average precipitation total for February.
"Despite the fact that parts of the Southeast have been drier than normal over the last month or so, localized flash flooding may still be a concern by the end of the week in parts of southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle where rounds of rainfall may bring a general 3-6 inches between Tuesday and Friday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
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The clash of warm and cold air across the Southeast will help trigger these repeated downpours across the region into this weekend. Gusty thunderstorms are even anticipated in the New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, area. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is highlighting an area from the Florida Panhandle to coastal North Carolina to have gusty or severe thunderstorms.
"Locally heavy rainfall may make for slow travel across I-10 in the Florida Panhandle over the next few days, as downpours could reduce visibility for drivers and also cause ponding of water on roadways," warned Pydynowski. AccuWeather storm warning meteorologists are also watching for gusts up to 60 mph with some of these storms.
Though the dangers of the storms should not be overlooked, they can also provide much-needed relief for wildfires burning across the Florida Peninsula. Firefighters are battling three nearby fires, the Bertha Swamp Road Fire, the Adkins Avenue Fire and the Star Ave Fire as one large blaze known as the Chipola Complex Fire, according to the Florida Fire Service (FFS).
The largest of the three fires, the Bertha Swamp Road Fire, is burning through dry, dead vegetation left behind from Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 hurricane that slammed the state in 2018, according to the FFS, and mandatory evacuations remain in place for residents in the area. More than 1,100 homes have been evacuated since the fires ignited, The Associated Press reported. Michael left behind 72 million tons of destroyed trees, the forest service said, according to the AP's report.
The Chipola Complex is burning across more than 15,000 acres in Bay, Calhoun and Gulf counties, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management. No injuries or fatalities have been reported.
Rain is also anticipated to cool areas of the Southeast that have been experiencing above-average temperatures. Pensacola, Florida, which reached 80 F Monday, typically has afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s this time of year, but highs may struggle to reach the upper 60s Wednesday as heavy rain falls. Charlotte, North Carolina, also had similar conditions in the lower 80s Monday, but forecasters predict highs in the 50s from Wednesday through Saturday despite averages in the 60s.
AccuWeather long-range meteorologists are forecasting rain and thunderstorms to continue advancing across the South into the weekend along a cold front. Some of the thunderstorms can be severe on Wednesday and again on Friday in the zone from the Florida Panhandle to the coastal areas of the Carolinas. Along with the risk of severe thunderstorms with high wind gusts is the potential for a few tornadoes and waterspouts.
A second storm could strengthen and race northward at the beginning of the weekend, bringing more rain and flooding potential to the region.
This will bring even lower temperatures, particularly from Atlanta to Jacksonville. As averages range in the middle 60s to lower 70s, high temperatures will likely be as low as 50s and 60s this weekend in Jacksonville and down to the lower 40s in Atlanta. This could bring temperatures below freezing in both of those cities Saturday night, reminding Southerners that spring is yet to come.
Those hoping for warmer weather shouldn't lose hope, however. Forecasters are predicting more consistent warmth across the South and Southeast next week, but with the additional chance of thunderstorms as the weather heats up.
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