By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
AccuWeather meteorologists say the start of the new month will bring noticeable changes in the weather across the Rockies and Plains.
February is notoriously known for being a chilly month across the United States, but some locations across the center of the country took this to the extreme this year. Through Feb. 26, average temperatures for the month ranged from 2 to 6 degrees below normal from the Rockies and Four Corners region through the southern and central Plains. In Denver, temperatures averaged 4.6 F degrees below normal, while Dallas reported temperatures of 5.6 F below normal.
"After a stretch of well below-average temperatures during late February, a springlike stretch of warmth is in store for places from Denver to St. Louis," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Temperature readings began to improve over the weekend, climbing from the deficits of as much as 30 to 40 F degrees below normal last week. But an even bigger warmup is ahead.
In cities like Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Oklahoma City, temperatures that return to normal on Monday will peak Wednesday or Thursday.
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Temperature departures of more than 10 degrees is expected as far north as from Rapid City, South Dakota, and Omaha, Nebraska, but the most extreme temperature differences, of as much as 20 to 30 degrees above normal, are expected across Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma.
"Cities like Kansas City and Oklahoma City, can expect temperatures to soar into the middle 70s F by Wednesday afternoon," explained Buckingham. For Kansas City, this is around 25 degrees above normal for early March. Such temperatures are more akin to late-April levels, rather than the first days of meteorological spring.
The same high pressure that will help to promote the warming sunshine is also expected to create a prolonged stretch of dry weather across the central U.S.
"The extended stretch of dry weather is expected to elevate wildfire concerns around midweek across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. Breezy conditions and low relative humidity levels will contribute to the ideal conditions for wildfire activity," Buckingham warned.
Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado will be emerging from the month of February in a severe or extreme drought, something that the dry pattern will only further exacerbate.
As the final days of the week approach, the weather pattern is expected to change. The jet stream is forecast to dive southward by the weekend, bringing with it the next big storm for the region.
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The clash of the warm air over the central U.S. and the introduction of the fresh cold air is likely to create everything from snow and ice to severe thunderstorms for the first weekend of March.
The exact location of the strongest storms will be dependent on the track that the late-week storm takes, but AccuWeather forecasters are currently highlighting portions of the southern and central Plains as the most likely target for the severe weather.
Southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri to eastern Texas is most likely to have all the atmospheric ingredients necessary for severe weather to emerge. Such ingredients include the drastic temperature clash, and sufficient moisture, likely streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico.
A pattern like this is very reminiscent of spring, when areas across the central and southern United States are increasingly likely to have these ingredients and the threat for severe thunderstorms.
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