By AccuWeather Meteorologist
Published Feb. 6, 2022 6:14 AM EST | Updated Feb. 7, 2022 3:26 PM EST
An early spring or even summer teaser will be coming soon for the western third of the United States as temperatures rise above normal this week, flirting with daily records. While this may be good news for warm weather lovers, poor air quality and higher fire risk are unfortunately forecast to come along for the ride.
"High pressure over Northern California and Oregon will result in little air flow and increased air stagnation and poor air quality as the week progresses," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson.
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In fact, the National Weather Service of Portland, Oregon, had issued an air stagnation advisory for Monday morning that warned residents of high pollution and asked them to refrain from outdoor burning. That advisory expired during the midday hours.
With very little moisture flowing onshore from the Pacific Ocean as the atmospheric pattern stills, conditions are anticipated to remain dry for most as temperatures are allowed to build. Places like Portland are likely to have temperatures at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average, but other cities could have record-breaking high temperatures.
On Wednesday, Medford, Oregon, is anticipated to have temperatures in the upper 60s, just a couple degrees shy of the 2006 record of 70 F. It could get even closer on Thursday, when the high could reach the lower 70s, which would break the Feb. 10 record of 69, also set in 2006.
Farther south, the heat will likely be centered around Northern California, where temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 80s during the second half of the week. Redding, California, will have the chance to reach record levels from Tuesday through Friday. The city has never had temperatures rise above 79 F on Feb. 9, 10 or 11 before this year, when it is expected to rise above 80 each day. Afternoon temperatures around 60 F are more common for this area in early February.
Several other cities, including San Francisco, Fresno and Sacramento, California, are forecast to break daily records on Thursday and approach records other times this week, and most locations around will be above average in terms of temperatures, like San Jose, California.
Despite the stagnation of the overall pattern, the weather at the surface could become particularly gusty as enhanced offshore flow occurs in California.
"A Santa Ana wind event will likely unfold across Southern California Wednesday into Thursday," said Erickson, adding that winds may gust at 40-60 mph across passes and canyons that are oriented north to south. Santa Ana winds are high-speed and dangerous winds that typically blow from the mountains to the coast in Southern California.
This combined with the high temperatures and dry air can lead to a higher wildfire risk this week. Over 60% of the state of California remains in severe drought, with Oregon in even worse shape at nearly 75% severe drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor.
The offshore flow could even get high winds gusting as early as Tuesday and enhance the warm conditions.
While the major cities of Southern California likely won't hit record levels, places like Los Angeles, San Diego and Palm Springs, California, will have temperatures surpassing 10 degrees above average by the end of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday, downtown residents of Los Angeles can expect temperatures to soar into the lower 80s, despite the average being in the upper 60s for February.
Though many may wish to get out and about in these warm conditions, AccuWeather forecasters urge those across the region to take the proper precautions. Gusty winds can produce hazardous crosswinds and blow away unsecured objects, as well as cause damage to power lines and tree limbs. Even the warmth could be dangerous to those unprepared or susceptible due to heat stress.
The AccuWeather long-range team predicts strong and gusty offshore winds across California will continue into next week, keeping conditions relatively toasty for Valentine's Day and beyond.
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