By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Dec. 29, 2021 12:53 PM EST | Updated Dec. 31, 2021 9:09 AM EST
An enormous winter storm will mark the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 by producing accumulating and travel-halting snowfall in at least 18 states from the southwestern United States to the Midwest and even parts of Canada during the holiday weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
As of early Friday morning, winter storm warnings have been issued for portions of nine states from the Four Corners region to the central Plains. Chicago has been included in a winter storm watch.
Due to the cross-continent storm's timing coinciding with the New Year's holiday, major travel disruptions are anticipated. Flight delays and cancellations are likely to increase substantially as aircraft and crews are grounded or displaced by the storm.
"This will be a massive storm in terms of the areal coverage of 3-8 inches of snow in the central United States that includes Chicago and many other hubs," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
In addition to Chicago, the major cities of Denver; Kansas City, Missouri; Des Moines, Iowa; Omaha, Nebraska; Milwaukee and Madison, Wisconsin; and Grand Rapids, Michigan; are in the zone where moderate to heavy snow is expected to fall during part of the New Year's weekend.
After unloading inches of rain and up to a foot of snow in Southern California through Thursday, the storm will move swiftly along with heavy snow for parts of the Colorado Rockies on Friday and Friday night. A general 6-12 inches of snow is in store for the mountains in Colorado with locally higher amounts. Enough snow to shovel and plow is foreseen around Denver with the storm unfolding late Friday as New Year's Eve revelers begin their partying. The Mile High City has received less than an inch of snow as of Dec. 30, compared to an average of nearly 19 inches for this point of the season.
Many cities, including Denver, over portions of the Plains Friday night are likely to experience a rapid change to midwinter conditions as temperatures plummet into the 20s, teens and even the single digits Fahrenheit in a matter of hours as the storm unfolds and cold air is drawn southeastward.
Farther to the east, around Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri, the storm may begin as a bit of rain or ice, but it is likely to quickly transition to snow. Plummeting temperatures from the lower 50s to the 20s and teens can create a sheet of ice beneath the snow then cause the snow to adhere to untreated surfaces on Friday night. Temperatures are likely to continue to fall and even dip into the single digits on New Year's Day in parts of northern Kansas, much of Nebraska and Iowa and northern Missouri.
Some areas from the central and southern Plains to the Midwest and northern tier of the Northeast may have to deal with a zone of freezing rain or a rapid freeze-up that leaves surfaces covered in a glaze of ice.
Even in areas where rain simply ends and roads dry off prior to the arrival of cold air, the temperature plunge alone from October-like warmth to January's frigid cold could be quite a shock to those living in the Plains states. After a warm day with highs in the 70s F on Friday in Dallas, temperatures are forecast to fall through the 50s and 40s on New Year's Day and into 20s Saturday night.
The combination of wind and cold, dry air will result in AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures that can range from below zero to the single digits over the central and southern Plains in the wake of the storm. In some cases, it may feel 50, 60 and even 80 degrees colder by New Year's Day compared to conditions experienced in much of December.
Chicago will be in the path of the storm with several inches of snow forecast to fall Saturday into Saturday night. Chicago finally snapped its streak of days with non-measurable snow on Tuesday when 1.5 inches fell at O'Hare Airport.
Depending on the exact track of the storm and area of heaviest snowfall, Chicagoland could quickly start building its seasonal snowfall total. There is the potential for 4-8 inches or more of snow to fall on New Year's Day. By the end of December, Chicago typically receives an average of about 9 inches of snow.
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Even though Detroit and Toledo, Ohio, will likely miss out on the bulk of the snow from the storm with rain forecast during most of the event from Friday night to New Year's Day, enough cold air can sweep in fast enough for a quick freeze up, along with intermittent snow and slippery conditions from late Saturday to Saturday night. Farther to the north over the central part of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, snow may pile up at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour from Friday night to New Year's Day, leading to difficult travel conditions.
Mostly rain is forecast to fall from the storm from the central Appalachians to much of the Northeast, but in portions of northern and western New York state and northern Maine, a wintry or icy mix can occur as cold air rushes in on the backside Saturday night into early Sunday.
Across the border, a foot (25 cm) of snow with locally higher amounts will fall on central portions of the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec from Saturday to early Sunday. However, a glaze of ice can be quite disruptive and dangerous in portions of the Ottawa and St. Lawrence valleys of Canada.
The same potent winter storm will also be responsible for a major outbreak of severe weather that will include tornadoes from parts of Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys from Friday night to Saturday night. Severe thunderstorms are also likely on Sunday from northern Florida to North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.
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