By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Oct. 14, 2021 9:18 PM EDT
Parts of the Midwest and Northeast are about to experience a weather roller-coaster ride, and dramatic temperatures won't be the only factor to make the weather feel like a wild ride. A slow-moving storm system will finally pick up forward speed, causing the potential for a drenching end to the week and weekend for some communities -- and even the potential for snow in a few spots.
"A weather reality check is set to push eastward and sweep away late-summer conditions late this week and this weekend from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Northeast," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dean DeVore said.
A southward dip in the jet stream, a strong cold front and tropical moisture are forecast to join forces and ignite downpours and gusty thunderstorms from the middle part of the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into Friday.
"It appears that the circulation associated with Tropical Rainstorm Pamela was shredded while moving from the mountains of northern Mexico to the plains of Texas during Wednesday night," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said. However, tropical moisture has survived and will be strung out for thousands of miles along the cold front and that can lead to areas of very heavy rain into this weekend, Adkins added.
In the major hubs of St. Louis, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cincinnati and Nashville as well as the connecting highways in between, heavy rain can fall, leading to localized flash flooding and travel slowdowns before the weekend. In some cases, wind gusts in showers and thunderstorms can be strong enough to trigger sporadic power outages.
The impacts from the dynamic trio will not stop in the Midwest. Quite to the contrary, AccuWeather forecasters say the intensity of the stormy pattern is likely to increase over the Northeastern states for a time this weekend.
In many cases, strong wind gusts can occur during torrential downpours, but some may occur without thunder and lightning.
"There will be strong winds just several thousand feet above the ground in the Northeast states, and any shower or thunderstorm that pushes up into that can bring the strong winds down to the ground in terms of powerful gusts," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Due to wet soil leaving trees water-logged, gusty winds may cause some trees to topple over. That will pose hazards to motorists and pedestrians as well as lead to minor property damage and sporadic power outages.
Eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York state to western West Virginia, central Kentucky and middle Tennessee are likely to bear the brunt of the drenching and gusty showers and thunderstorms during Friday night.
During the day Saturday, the bulk of the gusty downpours and thunderstorms will advance eastward through the central and southern Appalachians. Motorists traveling along the I-81 corridor should anticipate delays due to poor visibility and ponding in poor drainage areas.
The core of the windswept rain and thunderstorms is likely to pivot across the coastal mid-Atlantic and the Hudson Valley of New York state during Saturday evening, before pushing eastward across much of New England during Saturday night.
The passage of the cold front with its torrential downpours will act as a flip of a switch from late-August or early-September conditions to early November for a brief time.
Temperatures will take a plunge in the wake of the front. Highs in the mid-80s F on Friday will be swapped with highs in the lower 60s by Sunday in Washington, D.C. Balmy nights with temperatures mainly in the 60s will be a thing of the past as well.
In New York City, highs will dip from the upper 70s on Friday to the low 60s on Sunday and Monday, according to DeVore.
"Blustery conditions will make it look and feel more like November in the Midwest on Saturday and much of the Northeast on Sunday," Adkins said. In the wake of the cold front, wind gusts will frequent 25-35 mph range with some gusts past 40 mph possible, he added.
The combination of wind, clouds and other factors will cause AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to dip into the 40s and 50s from Michigan to Ohio on Saturday and then the 30s and 40s over the interior Northeast and the 50s in coastal Northeast on Sunday.
Actual low temperatures in the 40s will be common over the interior Northeast Saturday night and can dip into the 30s Sunday night in some cases. Frost may form in the typical colder spots of the interior Northeast during Monday night where the sky clears out and winds diminish.
By Sunday, most of the torrential downpours will have parted the Northeast, but clouds and showers will linger, especially from the central Appalachians to northern New England and neighboring southern Ontario and Quebec. Moisture from the warm waters of the Great Lakes can produce bands of steady lake-effect rain in parts of western and central New York state and northwestern Pennsylvania. The pattern may also trigger a few waterspouts on lakes Erie and Ontario.
A glimpse of winter may follow in some areas.
"As moisture lingers, the air is likely to get cold enough for a little wet snow to fall and accumulate over the ridges and peaks in the Catskills, as well as the higher elevations in general over the Adirondacks, Green and White mountains during Sunday night to early Monday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
While the mere mention of the four-letter word may have some in a panic and others digging their skis out, conditions more typical of September are forecast to return early next week with sunshine helping to turn the weather around once again.
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