A high temperature record that stood for more than a century was broken Tuesday in the Plains. More heat is in the forecast, but a noticeable change will soon occur.
Autumn is about two weeks old in the United States, but summer has had a hard time getting the hint to leave. Summerlike heat has frequently baked the nation's midsection in recent weeks, but AccuWeather meteorologists say an upcoming stormy pattern will help usher in air more typical of fall.
Overall, it has been a mild start to meteorological autumn, which began on Sept. 1 (astronomical fall began on Sept. 22), across the central parts of the nation. Temperatures averaged 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the entire month of September in places like San Antonio, Texas, and Little Rock, Arkansas, to over 4 degrees above normal in towns like Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Fargo, North Dakota.
Record high temperatures were set in cities from Billings, Montana, to Bismarck, North Dakota, on Tuesday. Billings hit 86 degrees, breaking its previous daily record of 85 from 1943, while the temperatures peaked at 91 in Bismarck. The old record of 90 had been in place there since 1947. One of the most significant records was set on Tuesday in Dickinson, North Dakota, where the mercury peaked at 92 F, exceeding the previous record of 91 F set 101 years ago.
On Thursday, heat began to build for the South Central states once again. As it continues to build, this heat will bring yet another round of abnormal warmth to portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri before the end of the week.
Widespread temperatures in the middle and upper 80s are expected for St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha, while the 90-degree mark is likely to be topped farther south.
"Temperatures are forecast to soar into the 90s on Friday and Saturday for locations like Oklahoma City and Dallas and Amarillo, Texas," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker.
While 90-degree temperatures are not unusual for these communities, heat of that magnitude is much less common by the time October rolls around. In fact, both Dallas and Oklahoma City hit the 90s only one day in October 2020, and temperatures in the lower 90s are almost 20 degrees above normal for early October.
The afternoon high temperatures in these cities are likely to fall short of records, which are in the middle to upper 90s.
Temperatures of this magnitude are likely to be noticeable by residents spending time outdoors during this otherwise dry weather pattern. Forecasters recommend that those attending college football games or fall festivals should stay well hydrated as the weekend progresses.
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This extreme heat is expected to wane as the week progresses in these cities and slowly return to near-normal levels for early October. However, the abnormal warmth will linger from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains through the end of the week.
A southerly wind flow will allow the abnormally warm conditions in cities like Minneapolis and Chicago to persist into the end of the week, according to Walker.
The peak of the heat is likely to be on Saturday, as another storm moves in from the west. For the first day of the weekend, a high temperature in the lower 80s is predicted for Chicago, while Minneapolis will soar to the upper 70s. Temperatures of this magnitude are 10-15 degrees above normal for early October.
AccuWeather forecasters say that there is an end in sight for the above-normal warmth.
"The heat building in the center of the country through the end of the week is expected to be squashed by two storms moving through the region over the weekend or early next week," said Walker.
The first storm is expected to shift from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains Saturday and Saturday night, bringing with it cooler air that will really settle in early next week. Temperatures in Fargo, North Dakota, and Minneapolis are likely to be slashed by 10-15 degrees in a matter of two days.
The same will be true farther south with a second storm moving in from the Rockies. This storm will help to drop temperatures in cities such as Wichita, Kansas, from 95 degrees on Saturday to just 75 by Monday. Widespread 15- to 20-degree temperature drops are expected elsewhere in the southern Plains.
In addition to bringing an end to the abnormally warm conditions across at least eight states, the storms will also bring welcome and beneficial precipitation along with them.
The U.S. Drought Monitor's update at the end of September showed continuing drought across the Central states. Over 63% of the High Plains region, which extends from North Dakota to Kansas, plus another 73 percent of both Minnesota and Oklahoma, were designated as being in moderate drought or worse. Little rain in the center of the country since early October has likely only worsened these conditions.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring for adverse effects with the stormy weather returning to the center of the country this weekend, including flooding and severe thunderstorms, as the week progresses.
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