Medium Chance of Subtropical Development Off Southeast Coast, But Here's Why We're Not Too Concerned

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: October 8, 2021

An area of disturbed weather near the Southeast coast has some chance to develop into a subtropical depression through this weekend, but there is one key factor working against that, even though we're still in a core month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Right now, this system is helping to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms from the coasts of the Carolinas into the adjacent Atlantic waters. These disorganized showers are associated with a weak area of low pressure.

The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium chance to form into a subtropical depression over the next five days as it inches slowly east-northeast.

Potential NHC Development Area

The reason this system isn't expected to develop much, despite being over warmer-than-average ocean water, is wind shear.

Computer forecast models suggest winds above the surface will be strong enough to prevent any area of low pressure from intensifying significantly over the next day or two.

Current Satellite, Wind Shear

The bottom line is while a subtropical depression could form, even if it does, it is unlikely to gain much strength at all, due to wind shear.

A front located near the East Coast will also interact with this system by early next week and should end the opportunity for development.

Impacts, Regardless

Despite that, this overall setup will produce some impacts near and along the Southeast coast and possibly farther north into the mid-Atlantic.

The difference in pressure between high pressure over the Northeast and lower pressure associated with the area we're watching will drive persistent onshore winds along parts of the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas.

This could generate high surf and rip currents into the weekend up parts of the Eastern Seaboard.

Keep this in mind if you have beach plans. Rip currents have already claimed 81 lives in the U.S. so far this year, according to the National Weather Service.

(MORE: The Danger of Rip Currents)

There will also be areas of showers and gusty winds near the Southeast coast. Rain and gusty winds from this system will crawl northward into the mid-Atlantic over the weekend.

Heavier, potentially flooding, rain will continue to fall inland over parts of the Southeast due to a separate weather system, a large, stuck, upper-level low pressure swirl that will linger through the end of the week.

Rainfall Forecast

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this system.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.