By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Oct. 11, 2021 6:31 PM MST
As a series of storms continues to spin from the Rockies to the Plains and Midwest, parts of the central United States will continue to be in the crosshairs of severe weather and the risk of tornadoes through the middle of this week.
"The current weather pattern is loaded across the nation," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Rayno was referring to all forms of weather visible on the map across the U.S. this week ranging from record-challenging warmth in the East and winterlike chill with snow in parts of the West. In between, near the clash of warm and cool air, rounds of severe thunderstorms will ignite through the middle of this week.
Dozens of severe weather incidents, including large hail and damaging winds, and about a dozen reports of tornadoes were centered on Oklahoma, northern Texas and southwestern Missouri Sunday and Sunday night. The same storm that triggered these violent storms will pivot northeastward over the Central states into Monday night.
The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms capable of packing high winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes through Monday night will extend from Illinois through Michigan.
More isolated severe storms could also erupt farther south across the Mississippi Valley. While most severe weather tends to occur during the peak of heating late in the afternoon, severe weather can occur well after sunset, when a potent storm system such as this is involved.
One factor that could add to the dangers posed by the severe weather will be the element of timing. Often severe weather peaks during the hottest hours of the afternoon, but severe weather is expected to occur under the cover of darkness due to the potent storm system that is acting as a trigger. AccuWeather forecasters say it is important for people to have a means of receiving severe weather watches and warnings even during the night.
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On Tuesday, the same storm system is forecast to push northward across Ontario. By then, the storm will be much weaker but may still trigger locally heavy and gusty thunderstorms over parts of central Ontario and western Quebec.
However, the risk for severe weather won't end for central parts of the nation as the first storm moves away.
Another storm that was getting underway early this week and was threatening to unleash feet of snow over parts of the Rockies while drawing in much cooler air and gusty winds over the West, in general, will re-activate severe weather and the tornado risk as it shifts over parts of the Plains states on Tuesday.
Some of the same areas that were pummeled with high winds, heavy rain, hail and tornadoes late Sunday and Sunday night will be targeted by severe weather again on Tuesday.
"The greatest risk of tornadoes appears to be centered west of Oklahoma City with this next round," AccuWeather Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said. Western Kansas, the eastern part of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma will be at risk for tornadoes.
Because of the potent nature of this new storm system, just like its predecessor, "the most likely time for severe storms capable of producing tornadoes will be toward sunset on Tuesday and into the first part of Tuesday night," DePodwin stated.
And there will be other similarities as storms erupt across the region. "All forms of severe weather are possible with this new storm system on Tuesday," Rayno added.
It is not uncommon for severe weather to ramp up in the autumn months. This secondary severe weather season is set off by the strengthening jet stream and frequent clashes of cool and dry air with lingering warmth and Gulf of Mexico moisture during October and November.
While the overall number of tornadoes for 2021 is below the recent three-year average, there have been some spikes during the spring and summer, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. As of Oct. 4, a running tally from the Storm Prediction Center indicates that there were 1,007 preliminary reports of tornadoes across the country in 2021. May yielded the highest number of tornadoes for any month this year with 289 and was above the three-year average of 269. This October is poised to finish above the 19 confirmed tornadoes from October 2020.
The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing high winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes during Tuesday afternoon and night extends across central Texas to northern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and western Missouri and includes the metro areas of Dallas; Oklahoma City; Wichita and Topeka, Kansas, and Grand Island and Lincoln, Nebraska.
This new storm will take a northeastward track that is similar to the Sunday-Monday storm as well so that a large part of the Mississippi Valley and Midwest, including Chicago, may face severe weather on Wednesday or at least the potential for heavy, gusty thunderstorms.
As thunderstorms ramp up during the afternoon hours and persist through the busy commute time in the evening each day through Wednesday, travel delays on the highways and at the airports in the region are expected.
AccuWeather forecasters urge motorists to avoid driving through flooded areas as water can be deeper than it appears. Floodwaters can also rise rapidly, and roads can be compromised beneath the water.
As is the case with any thunderstorm, lightning strikes will be a threat. Approximately 400,000 lightning events were detected across Oklahoma on Sunday as thunderstorms swept through, according to Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist with Vaisala, a lightning detection company. People are encouraged to move indoors and away from windows at the first rumble of thunder. Golf carts and picnic pavilions do not offer adequate protection from lightning.
The storm will create a broad zone of strong winds on its western and southern flanks. These drying winds will pivot eastward from the Southwest states to portions of the central and southern Plains at midweek in the wake of showers and severe thunderstorms. However, the dry air may only advance so far to the east as a zone of rain and thunderstorms has the potential to stall from central Texas to southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead of tropical downpours from Pamela in the Eastern Pacific.
As if the risk of tornadoes, thunderstorm-driven high winds and flash flooding was not enough, winds are expected to become strong enough in the wake of severe weather to create problems for high-profile vehicles and trigger sporadic power outages.
But the storm won't bring bad news everywhere. Because of the sprawling nature of the potent storm spanning Tuesday and Wednesday over the Central states, rich moisture is forecast to reach parts of the Dakotas and southern Manitoba, Canada -- drought-stricken areas in great need of rainfall.
"This will be the second storm in a few days to bring drenching rain and will go a long way toward easing drought conditions in the region," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
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