By AccuWeather Meteorologist & AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Sep. 2, 2021 9:29 AM EDT
The heart of the hurricane season is underway, and its frenzied pace doesn't appear to be slowing, AccuWeather meteorologists say. During a week in which Ida made landfall in Louisiana as a major hurricane and Julian, Kate and Larry all formed over the open Atlantic, the focus is turning back to the Caribbean.
AccuWeather forecasters are closely monitoring another emerging tropical threat in the southwestern Caribbean Sea where thunderstorms have been erupting around an area of low pressure.
"There is a broad area of low pressure within a larger counter-clockwise wind pattern over the southern Caribbean and eastern Central America typically referred to as a gyre," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
This clip, captured on the morning of Wednesday, Sept 1, 2021, shows thunderstorms bubbling up around a low pressure area in the southern Caribbean. (CIRA/RAMMB)
A gyre is a large area of ocean water currents, but it also refers to a weather pattern that can develop in the tropical atmosphere over the western Atlantic. It's a broad area of slowly spinning and rising air that can help develop intense weather and disturbances.
The low pressure in question was moving into northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday morning and is moving slowly to the northwest.
On this track, the disturbance will track across northeastern Nicaragua, eastern Honduras and the southern Yucatan Peninsula through the first half of the weekend.
"While the low may partially track across the Gulf of Honduras on Friday, it is not expected to spend enough time across the water to become an organized feature through the weekend," said Kottlowski.
Although it may not develop into an organized tropical system, it can still bring heavy downpours and isolated flooding to portions of Central America through the end of the week. These are most likely in Honduras and Nicaragua.
"Eventually, this system will move into the southern Bay of Campeche later Sunday," said Kottlowski. "However, increased vertical wind shear should limit development early next week."
Vertical wind shear is the change in direction and speed of winds at increasing heights in the atmosphere and can work to prevent tropical development.
The main concern for development with this disturbance may come later next week.
"There is a small window of opportunity for development as this low moves northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late next week into a region of low wind shear and very warm water," added Kottlowski. "If it is able to do this, there is some chance it could become an organized tropical system off the Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast."
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