Weather Outside Your Window: Mindy weakens to a tropical depression after making landfall in Florida

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Sep. 9, 2021 10:05 AM EDT

Less than five hours after taking shape over the Gulf of Mexico, Mindy made landfall along the Florida Panhandle Wednesday night as a tropical storm in almost the same exact spot that Tropical Storm Fred hit less than one month ago.

Mindy lost wind intensity after moving inland, becoming a tropical depression at 5 a.m. EDT Thursday, but it still continued to spread heavy rain across parts of southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Prior to Mindy's landfall, multiple weather stations in the Florida Panhandle clocked tropical-storm-force winds with some gusts occasionally topping 60 mph.

Mindy formed at 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday afternoon just off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and by 9:15 p.m. EDT, the center of the storm moved over St. Vincent Island, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

It was not as strong as Fred, which made landfall about 15 miles away at Cape San Blas, Florida, on Aug. 16 with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

By Thursday morning, Mindy was located about 80 miles south-southeast of Valdosta, Georgia, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The tropical storm warning that had been in place for the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued.

AccuWeather forecasters have been monitoring this part of the Atlantic basin since late August for this particular system.

Damaging winds are not expected to be a substantial threat and AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Mindy as a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™Scale for Hurricanes.

This image, captured on Sept. 9, 2021, shows Tropical Depression Mindy over the southeastern U.S. with the center of the system over southeastern Georgia. (NOAA/GOES-EAST)

A plume of moisture associated with Mindy will continue to contribute to drenching showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern U.S. into Thursday night. Downpours can be intense and persistent enough to bring 3-6 inches of rain and flash flooding to some communities into the end of the week with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches. More widespread rainfall amounts will be on the order of 1-2 inches.

Flooding downpours may hit metro areas around Savannah, Georgia; Charleston, South Carolina; and Wilmington, North Carolina, on Thursday. Both Panama City and Tallahassee, Florida, received more than 3 inches of rain due to the effects of Mindy as of Thursday morning.

Fortunately, downpours and winds associated with Mindy will stay well to the east of areas in Louisiana that were hardest hit by Hurricane Ida in late August. More than 250,000 utility customers remained without power in southeastern Louisiana as of Thursday morning, according to PowerOutage.us.

Seas and surf can be rough along the Atlantic Coast of the southeastern U.S., especially in the proximity of thunderstorms from Mindy into Thursday evening. Hurricane Larry, located hundreds of miles to the northeast, near Bermuda, will also generate rough surf and large waves along the Atlantic coast.

Mindy is forecast to take an east-northeast path into Atlantic waters east of Georgia and the Carolinas from Thursday night to Saturday. It could briefly regain tropical storm status after moving off the coast and over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, but Mindy is not expected to become a hurricane.

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Although wind shear limited development earlier in the week, the warm waters below the system contributed to its quick development.

"The center of this [system] was over some of the deepest warm water of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

Water temperatures in part of the central Gulf of Mexico were in the middle to upper 80s F, and the warm waters extended to the depths of the Gulf. When water temperatures are 78 degrees or warmer, conditions are considered to be favorable for tropical development. When the water is warm through a deep layer, it is less likely to be cooled from the churning winds on the surface.

Dry air is forecast to sweep in across the Southeastern states from Friday into this weekend, allowing the region to dry out following tropical downpours throughout the week.

Steering breezes are forecast to guide this feature out into the western Atlantic over the weekend, where it would be a diminishing threat to the U.S.

Elsewhere, in the Atlantic, Larry will remain the strongest tropical system on the maps into Friday night, prior to a close encounter or landfall on the island of Newfoundland, Canada.

A new threat may arise in waters near Mexico and Central America from this weekend into early next week, but the momentum from the trade winds may keep the system too close to land -- a factor that could limit the potential for it to develop further. Winds could also continue to push it westward over the continent.

There is a low risk of development expected in the western Gulf into early next week, but there will be a better chance for tropical development after the system moves over land and into the Pacific later next week, Kottlowski explained.

Farther to the east over the Atlantic, tropical waves will continue to push westward from Africa. There is a chance a more robust wave in the train catches on and slowly develops this weekend to early next week in the vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands, which are located off the west coast of Africa.

As of Thursday, Sept. 9, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has spawned 13 tropical storms, of which five have gone on to strengthen into hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

With the peak of hurricane season only near the halfway point (Sept. 10), plenty more tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes are foreseen this year as 2021 remains on a well-above-average pace. During an average season, there are 14 named systems with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

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