Saturday, August 7, 2021

Will the Atlantic Basin soon awaken from its slumber?

 By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

This image, captured on Saturday, Aug. 7, 2021, shows some moisture and clouds (white) gathering from the central Atlantic to the coast of Africa (right). Dry air was still extensive across the region. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)

CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East

AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close watch on the Atlantic Ocean as there have been signs of life over the past few days. However, forecasters say it may be an uphill climb for a new named storm to form, despite a recent flare up in shower and thunderstorm activity.

"Since Hurricane Elsa’s dissipation on July 9, it has been calm in the Atlantic basin due to the dominating presence of dry air, dust particles and strong wind shear, which all inhibit growth of tropical systems," AccuWeather Meteorology Intern Marshall Smith said.

Although the Atlantic typically enters a lull in tropical activity during July and into the start of August, the basin achieved a feat that hadn't occurred since 2009. That was the last year a storm was not named between July 10 and Aug. 3, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University meteorologist.

"The current pause in activity in the Atlantic since July is a sharp contrast to the month of June, which featured three named tropical systems and tied the record for the most active June," Smith said.

AccuWeather's team of tropical experts are monitoring several features, known as tropical waves, that have emerged off the coast of Africa. The showers and thunderstorms associated with these waves can organize into a tropical depression or the next named storm under the right conditions.

Forecasters say some of the conditions supportive for tropical development will be in play into next week, while others will not.

"Water temperatures are largely supportive for development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. Water temperatures of around 80 F or higher are needed for tropical storms to form and strengthen.

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The water being sufficiently warm is not enough for a tropical system to form, however. Dry air, dust and wind shear can deter and prevent tropical development in many cases. These factors have been prevalent across the basin since Elsa's demise and forecasters do not expect them to let up anytime in the near future.

"Pockets of dry air across the eastern and central Atlantic will continue to inhibit the development of the tropical waves crossing the basin," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

This graphic depicts how tropical activity typically ramps up as August progresses.

Pydynowski is currently giving an area of low pressure to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands and two tropical waves ahead of this feature low chances for development.

Any development that does take place will be very slow to occur due to the inhibiting factors in the atmosphere, according to Pydynowski.

"If either of these features can somehow navigate through these obstacles and reach tropical storm status, the next storm would be named Fred," Smith said.

Regardless of development, the Lesser Antilles can expect an enhancement of gusty showers and downpours during the early and middle part of next week as these waves pass through the islands or nearby. Seas may also be rougher than normal for an extended period of time.

Even with the recent lull in activity, AccuWeather's team of hurricane experts is projecting an above-average season with 16-20 named storms and a total of seven to 10 of those reaching hurricane status. Five to seven direct impacts on the U.S. are forecast. 

As the statistical peak of hurricane season nears, AccuWeather meteorologists urge people in hurricane-prone areas to continue to check back for updates.

IN OTHER NEWS:

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