By AccuWeather Meteorologist
Published Aug. 13, 2021 8:56 AM EDT | Updated Aug. 14, 2021 12:14 PM EDT
Many eyes are on Tropical Rainstorm Fred as it crawls toward Florida, but AccuWeather forecasters have also been watching another emerging tropical threat in the Atlantic. The system strengthened enough to be named Tropical Storm Grace by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) early Saturday morning.
Well behind Fred, Tropical Storm Grace came together early Saturday morning over the open Atlantic. As of 11 a.m. EDT, it was about 265 miles (425 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, moving westward at 23 mph (37 km/h). The system was packing 45 mph (75 km/h) sustained winds.
This satellite image shows Tropical Storm Grace shortly after sunrise on Saturday, Aug. 14, 2021. (Image/NOAA/GOES-EAST)
Tropical storm warnings have gone into effect for Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saba, Sint Eustatius, Sint Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the British Virgin Islands.
AccuWeather forecasters predict Grace will continue to move westward over the next several days, following a roughly similar path that Fred did in its early stages of development. However, some atmospheric factors have the potential to cause this new storm to track somewhat differently to the path Fred has taken through the Caribbean.
Like Fred, Grace is anticipated to encounter some obstacles that could limit its ability to strengthen, forecasters say.
"Grace is embedded within an area of drier air and has some African dust to its north and west which is working to slow development," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Wind shear is also expected to increase early next week as the system tracks towards the Bahamas, southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the northern Caribbean Sea.
The developing storm looks to be a significant rain producer, according to forecasters, as it swirls over the Caribbean into next week. Islands like Puerto Rico could see 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) of rain and as the system moves through the Bahamas it could unload anywhere from 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) and some locally higher amounts near the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (300 mm).
The heavy, tropical rainfall is also forecast to impact southwestern Haiti, which will be recovering from a strong 7.2 earthquake that hit near Saint-Louis Du Sud on Saturday morning.
Buildings collapsed during the earthquake and rain and wind from Grace could complicate rescue and cleanup efforts through the first part of the week.
Many of these locations just got drenched with several inches of rainfall from Fred a few days ago.
Next in line for impacts would be the southeastern United States, but any impacts will depend on a host of factors that AccuWeather forecasters are continuing to monitor.
Grace is expected to bring impacts to the U.S. by the end of next week if it maintains organization.
"Indications point towards Grace tracking slightly farther to the north compared to Fred, so places like the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could endure greater impacts compared to Fred," Douty said.
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This more northward path would keep the storm away from the mountainous and larger islands of the northern Caribbean. With a potential track over more open water, there might be more opportunity for Grace to strengthen at a much faster pace when compared to Fred most recently and Elsa during early July.
Even with two tropical systems ongoing, Fred and Grace are not the only features that forecasters have their eye on as activity in the Atlantic basin ramps up.
"In addition, another robust tropical wave appears poised to emerge from the western coast of Africa this weekend," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker, adding that the AccuWeather forecasting team will continue to watch this feature this for potential development as well.
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