Tropical Depression Fred Tracking Across the Haiti on a Potential Path to Florida

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: August 11, 2021

Tropical Depression Fred is tracking over the Haiti, where it will likely weaken some before potentially reorganizing once it moves back over water later this week. Florida could see rain and wind impacts from Fred by Friday or this weekend, but details on the magnitude of those threats are still uncertain.

For now, Floridians should monitor the forecast closely given Fred's current most likely path.

Fred moved inland just west of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic about 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday. It's tracking toward the west-northwest at 15 mph.

Current Satellite

Tropical storm watches have been issued for the northern parts of Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as portions of Cuba. Tropical storm conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) are possible on Thursday.

The Dominican Republic and the western Bahamas could see 3 to 5 inches (locally up to 8 inches) of rainfall from this system. Flash flooding and mudslides are concerns.

Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

Uncertain Forecast For Florida

The official forecast from the NHC below shows that Fred will move generally west-northwest with a turn more to the northwest over the next few days.

The combination of moderate wind shear and land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola will likely cause Fred to weaken some into Thursday. There is even the possibility that the system could dissipate for a time.

Be Prepared For The Next Storm With This First Aid Kit (SPONSORED)

Current Status, Forecast Path

By late week, Fred or its remnants could be located near Cuba and the southeast Bahamas, where some slow reorganization of the system might begin. That will depend on several factors, including how much wind shear it encounters as it moves north, how quickly it recovers from land interaction and whether it tracks over water instead of Cuba.

Then, it could near the western coast of the Florida Peninsula this weekend with little additional strengthening, as depicted by the far right side of the forecast path above. There is also the possibility that Fred could track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where wind shear might weaken enough to allow some intensification.

Keep in mind that Fred's forecast is highly subject to change given all of the wind shear, dry air and land interaction obstacles we've described above.

Regardless, it appears at least some rain and wind impacts are possible in Florida later Friday into this weekend. Details on the magnitude of those impacts are still uncertain, but will come into focus over the next day or so.

However, increasing moisture will likely impact parts of Florida and the Southwest, where 3 to 5 inches are possible Friday through Monday, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and rapid river rises.

For now, interests from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and Florida should monitor its progress over the coming days. Now is a good time to refresh or develop your hurricane season plans.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.