By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug. 17, 2021 2:34 PM EDT | Updated Aug. 18, 2021 8:57 AM EDT
Grace was hardly done thrashing the Caribbean when it set its sights on a new country: Mexico.
Tropical Storm Grace continued to unleash flooding rainfall across portions of Haiti that are still recovering from a devastating and deadly earthquake this past weekend, and now the storm is setting its sights on Jamaica, Cuba and eventually Mexico, perhaps at hurricane force, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
As a tropical storm and tropical depression, Grace plowed through the Caribbean with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of Grace was 440 miles to the east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico, with the storm's movement at 16 mph to the west as of 5 a.m. EDT Thursday. Its maximum sustained winds had strengthened to 65 mph.
Grace is rated a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean, due to the heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts that can create flash flooding, structural damage and power outages.
Tropical storm watches were in effect for parts of Cuba, with tropical storm warnings in effect for the Cayman Islands and parts of the Yucatán Peninsula. Hurricane warnings also extended into the Yucatán Peninsula and hurricane watches into the Cayman Islands.
After Grace departs the Caribbean islands, the system will track toward Mexico, and it could strengthen as it makes the trek.
"As Grace pulls away from Jamaica and nears the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the tropical storm will go through an area of warmer water and, eventually, lesser wind shear," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
Miller further explained that these two factors, which are generally considered favorable for tropical development, are likely to help Grace reach hurricane status by Wednesday evening. A tropical system is upgraded to a hurricane when sustained winds reach or exceed 74 mph (119 km/h). There could even be an opportunity for the storm to intensify very quickly as it moves across the more open waters of the northwest Caribbean.
Because of the expected impacts from damaging winds, storm surge along the coast, and flooding rainfall in both the Yucatan and in northeastern Mexico, Grace is rated a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Mexico.
The strengthening system is likely to unleash wind gusts greater than 80 mph across parts of states Yucatan and Quintana Roo on the peninsula Wednesday night and Thursday.
Near where Grace makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as on the island of Cozumel, winds can gust past 100 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 135 mph. Winds of this magnitude could cause extensive power outages and structural damage.
Heavy, tropical rain is also expected to impact the northern Yucatan Peninsula as Grace pushes through the area. Any higher terrain will be susceptible to rainfall totals nearing 4 inches (100 mm), resulting in the risk of flooding.
As Grace builds in intensity, the swirling winds will also begin to pile up the ocean water under the storm. As Grace makes landfall this water will push onshore as storm surge, leading to dangerous flooding and coastal inundation along the eastern facing shores of the Yucatan, adding to the flood risk that already exists just from heavy rain.
Land interaction in the northern Caribbean caused Grace to lose wind intensity earlier this week. The same trend is forecast for Grace as it travels over the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of the week.
At the end of the week, Grace is expected to continue its general west-northwestward trajectory through the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico, aiming for northeastern Mexico by the weekend.
"A persistent high pressure over the southeastern U.S. is helping to create winds higher up in the atmosphere that will continue to steer Grace westward toward Mexico. Should that high weaken, the steering winds may slacken just enough that Grace could drift northward toward Texas," Miller said.
The system is predicted to spend several days over the warm, tropical waters which will allow Grace's wind intensity to increase once again. Grace is expected to regain hurricane status in time for the weekend and its second landfall along the Mexico coastline. Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph (130 km/h) will be possible.
No matter Grace's exact wind intensity, heavy, tropical rainfall is expected to unload on the area, bringing with it the threat for flash flooding.
"There could be as much as 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain in the states of Tamaulpas, eastern San Luis Potosi and northern Veracruz from Grace, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (500 mm) most likely in the mountains," said Miller.
Mountainous areas deluged with this much rainfall will be susceptible to mudslides, which can cause treacherous travel and road closures in the area.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The last tropical feature to impact Mexico was the early beginnings of what later became this year's Tropical Storm Claudette. The storm gained its name on June 19 near the Louisiana coast, after it brought heavy rain to the Bay of Campeche coasts in Mexico. The last named tropical system to make landfall in Mexico was during the historic 2020 Atlantic Basin Tropical Season. In late October the 28th named tropical system of the season, Hurricane Zeta, made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Grace wasted little time making its name known over the weekend, strengthening from Tropical Depression 7 to a tropical storm in less than a day. Grace's rain over the weekend drenched portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Prior to Grace's impact on the island, Puerto Rican Gov. Pedro Pierluisi announced said in a press conference last week that the island's National Guard was standing by to assist residents during the storm, in addition to establishing storm shelters. Pierluisi also postponed the start of public school classes until this Wednesday.
"Torrential rains" fell over portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic Monday night, including portions of southern Haiti that are still reeling from a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck Saturday morning. Grace's stormy conditions hampered rescue and recovery efforts. Officials say the earthquake killed over 1,900 people, injured 6,900 others and destroyed thousands of homes.
On Monday night, Haiti's civil protection agency, Protection Civile, said on Twitter that the ongoing heavy rainfall over the Sud department had complicated the "situation of displaced people."
Some residents displaced from their homes by Saturday's quake were forced to set up makeshift tents for shelter. It was in these same tents that these residents endured the brunt of rain and wind from Grace Monday night. Video from the area showed tarps weighed down by ponding water and wind-whipped rain reaching people huddled under shelters comprised of blankets and poles.
As of early Tuesday morning, widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches (75-125 mm) had already fallen across southern areas of Haiti.
The U.S. Agency of International Development (USAID) was forced to suspend sending relief to Haiti as Grace passed just south of the island of Hispaniola, but the agency said assistance resumed Tuesday morning.
See ALSO:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
No comments:
Post a Comment