Weather Outside Your Window: Hurricane Grace makes landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Aug. 17, 2021 2:34 PM EDT | Updated Aug. 19, 2021 10:31 AM EDT

Hurricane Grace made landfall along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula near the town of Tulum, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Thursday morning. AccuWeather meteorologists say this is the first of two landfalls in Mexico, with the second expected to occur this weekend.

Grace has been rated as a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, due to the heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and storm surge that can create flash flooding, structural damage and power outages.

Grace was a Category 1 hurricane at the time of landfall on Thursday morning, packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, according to the NHC.

Grace remained a Category 1 hurricane as of 7 a.m. CDT, on Thursday, packing sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), according to the NHC. The storm was about 45 miles south-southeast of Valladolid.

This infrared satellite loop shows Hurricane Grace making landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday morning. (AccuWeather)

Wind gusts up to 85 mph (137 km/h) were been reported near Playa del Carmen, Mexico, the NHC said. Wind gusts to near 60 mph (97 km/h) were reported in Cancun.

These winds downed tree branches and power lines in Playa del Carmen, just north of where Grace made landfall, according to The Associated Press.

Cancun and a stretch of the Yucatán Peninsula were under hurricane warnings on Thursday morning as Grace made landfall.

Grace neared the criteria for rapid intensification from Tuesday into Wednesday when the system's maximum sustained winds increased from 52 mph to 75 mph (80 km/h to 121 km/h).

Rapid intensification, as defined by the NHC, is a meteorological process where tropical systems gain wind intensity very quickly, strengthening 35 mph (55 km/h) in just 24 hours.

Grace is likely to continue unleashing wind gusts near or above 80 mph (135 km/h) across parts of the states of Yucatan and Quintana Roo on the peninsula Thursday.

Near where Grace tracks inland on the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as on the island of Cozumel, wind gusts of 80-90 mph (130-145 km/h) can cause extensive power outages and structural damage. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph (160 km/h) is expected.

Heavy tropical rain is also expected to impact the northern Yucatan Peninsula as Grace pushes through the area. Rainfall totals nearing 4 inches (100 mm) can result in the risk of flooding.

As strong winds blast onshore, ocean water can pile up along the coast. When Grace makes landfall, this water will push onshore as storm surge, leading to dangerous flooding and coastal inundation along the east-facing shores of the Yucatan Peninsula, adding to the flood risk that already exists just from heavy rain.

Land interaction in the northern Caribbean caused Grace to lose wind intensity earlier this week. The same trend is forecast for Grace as it travels over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and Thursday night. By the time Grace emerges over the Bay of Campeche, it is expected to be a tropical storm.

At the end of the week, Grace is expected to continue its general west trajectory through the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico, aiming for eastern Mexico by the weekend.

A persistent high pressure over the southeastern U.S. is helping to create winds higher up in the atmosphere that will continue to steer Grace westward toward Mexico.

The system is predicted to spend enough time over the warm, tropical waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico to allow Grace's wind intensity to increase once again. Grace is expected to regain hurricane status in time for the weekend and its second landfall along the Mexico coastline. Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph (130 km/h) will be possible.

No matter Grace's exact wind intensity, heavy tropical rainfall is expected to unload on the area, bringing with it the threat of flash flooding.

"There could be as much as 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain in the states of Tamaulpas, eastern San Luis Potosi and northern Veracruz from Grace, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (500 mm) most likely in the mountains," said Miller.

Mountainous areas deluged with this much rainfall will be susceptible to mudslides, which can cause treacherous travel and road closures in the area.

"The remaining circulation center of Grace will reach the southwestern coast of Mexico late Sunday or Sunday night and move over the East Pacific," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. "It's possible this system could attempt to re-develop into a tropical depression and even a tropical storm in the East Pacific early next week as it moves due west."

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If it were to re-develop into a tropical cyclone and become a tropical storm, it would take the name Marty.

The last tropical feature to impact Mexico was the early beginnings of what later became this year's Tropical Storm Claudette. The storm gained its name on June 19 near the Louisiana coast, after it brought heavy rain to the Bay of Campeche coasts in Mexico. The last-named tropical system to make landfall in Mexico was during the historic 2020 Atlantic Basin Tropical Season. In late October, the 28th named tropical system of the season, Hurricane Zeta, made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Grace wasted little time making its name known this past weekend, strengthening from Tropical Depression 7 to a tropical storm in less than a day.

Already Grace has lashed parts of the Caribbean, including disaster areas in Haiti which took a hit from a major earthquake over the weekend, and Jamaica. As a tropical storm and tropical depression, Grace plowed through the Caribbean with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. In doing so, Grace unleashed 13.6 inches of rain on Kingston, Jamaica, in just 24 hours.

"Torrential rains" from Grace fell over portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic Monday night, including portions of southern Haiti that are still reeling from a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck Saturday morning. Grace's stormy conditions hampered rescue and recovery efforts. Officials say the earthquake killed over 1,900 people , injured 6,900 others and destroyed thousands of homes.

The U.S. Agency of International Development (USAID) was forced to suspend sending relief to Haiti as Grace passed just south of the island of Hispaniola, but the agency said assistance resumed on Tuesday morning.