Weather Outside Your Window: Heavy rain, severe weather threat looms for northern Plains

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Aug. 19, 2021 3:31 AM EDT

A potent storm bringing gusty, fire-stoking winds to California along with a fall-like chill, soaking rain and even some high-country snow to the northern Rockies will shift into the northern Plains to end the week. As the storm shifts, it will continue to bring its bag of both beneficial weather for some but threatening weather for others.

Much of the northern Plains, from eastern Montana across the Dakotas into Minnesota, is in the throes of severe drought or worse, according to the US Drought Monitor. AccuWeather forecasters say this next storm may help put a big dent in that drought.

"A lot of the region from northeastern Wyoming and eastern Montana, across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska and into Minnesota and Iowa is likely to get 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain from Thursday through Friday," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Niki LoBiondo. "While this won't eliminate the drought, it will be a big step in the right direction and alleviate some of the dryness."

AccuWeather forecasters say rainfall totals could reach 2 to 3 inches in places where the heaviest precipitation comes down, which is most likely to be across the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.

"From an agricultural perspective, this rain is coming a bit too late to benefit most of the corn crop at this point," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "However, soybean fields will welcome the beneficial rain."

The rain will also help, at least temporarily, clear out some of the smoke and haze that has persistently plagued the skies in the region recently. However, with fires still raging across much of the West, it may only be a matter of time before smoky skies return following the storm.

Precipitation will no doubt be welcome as it helps begin easing drought conditions and clear out some of the smoke in the skies, but that rainfall may come with the risk of stormy weather in some communities. "Severe thunderstorms are also forecast to break out in the region as this potent storm moves through," LoBiondo said.

Both Thursday and Friday may bring a risk of severe thunderstorms, but the more significant threat of severe weather will arise on Friday. "While a tornado or two certainly can't be ruled out, damaging wind gusts and hail look to be the main threats on Thursday," LoBiondo said.

On Thursday, the threat of severe weather will focus farther west, including places like Cheyenne, Wyoming, and Rapid City, South Dakota.

On Friday, tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail and flash flooding could all occur across a large swath of the Plains from parts of far northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri through the eastern Dakotas and much of Minnesota.

Places that could get dangerous weather include metro areas around Minneapolis, Des Moines, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and Fargo, North Dakota.

Those with outdoor plans to kick off the weekend or those attending sporting events in the region will want to be prepared for the threat of severe weather. The weather system could also prove disruptive for college students who may be traveling or planning to move back to campuses Friday in preparation for the new semester.

Farmers throughout the region will also want to stay weather aware as crops are nearly ready to be harvested at this time of summer.

"With corn now reaching maturity across much of the region, cornfields could be more susceptible to damaging winds," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "The tall stalks weighed down with ears of corn can be blown over by thunderstorm winds much more easily."

Last week, AccuWeather covered the one-year anniversary of the 2020 Midwest derecho, which hit particularly hard in Iowa and caused billions of dollars in damage, including the destruction of hundreds of millions of bushels of corn as well as millions of bushels of stored grain.

At this time, AccuWeather forecasters aren't expecting an event of that magnitude on Friday, but after a year when farmers have already sustained significant crop damage, any additional losses from storms this year could strain farmers even further.

Following the storm, a refreshing mass of cooler and less humid air, accompanied by plenty of sunshine, will sweep across the northern Plains for the weekend.