Weather Outside Your Window: Grace a major hurricane ahead of second Mexico landfall

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist & Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Aug. 20, 2021 11:18 PM EDT

Following Grace's first landfall in Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, the strengthening storm is closing in on a second landfall in Mexico.

Although the storm lost some wind intensity while crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, Grace had restrengthened into a Category 2 hurricane by Friday evening. Just a few hours later, Grace had intensified further and became a Category 3 major hurricane. AccuWeather meteorologists say that Grace will maintain hurricane force when it roars ashore from late Friday into early Saturday.

As Grace moved west of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning, it had its sights set on eastern Mexico. With the expectation of landfall, hurricane warnings are already in effect along the coast of mainland Mexico from the towns of Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo.

Grace has been rated as a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, due to the heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and storm surge that can create flash flooding, structural damage and power outages.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Friday morning that Air Force hurricane hunters had found that Grace developed into a hurricane once again. When they investigated the storm later that evening, they found it had intensified into a Category 2 hurricane and then quickly became a Category 3 hurricane.

From 11 p.m. EDT Thursday to 11 p.m. EDT Friday, Grace's maximum sustained winds had burst from 65 mph to 120 mph, undergoing a process known as rapid intensification. The qualifications of this process require a storm's maximum sustained winds to grow by over 30 knots (about 35 mph) over a 24-hour span of time.

Those living in the hurricane warning areas were being told to rush to complete preparations to protect life and property.

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The storm was located about 105 miles (170 km) northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, as of 11 p.m. EDT. Grace was packing maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and was moving west at 10 mph. A hurricane reaches Category 3-strength when its maximum sustained winds reach 111 mph.

Conditions will deteriorate along the east-central coast of Mexico throughout Friday as Grace approaches, with landfall expected Friday night near Tecolutla.

Damaging wind gusts of 70-90 mph (115-145 km/h) are possible near where Grace makes landfall from late Friday into early Saturday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 140 mph (225 km/h) expected. This can lead to widespread power outages that may last for several days, along with downed trees and some structural damage.

As strong winds blast onshore, ocean water can pile up along the coast. When Grace makes landfall, this water will push onshore as a 3- to 6-foot (1- to 2-meter) storm surge, leading to dangerous flooding and coastal inundation, adding to the flood risk that already exists just from heavy rain.

This heavy rain of 8-12 inches (200-300 mm) of rain can lead to widespread flooding along Grace's track. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 20 inches (500 mm) can cause mudslides in the mountains just inland. Central Veracruz into Puebla, Tlaxcala and Hidalgo will be at the greatest risk for excessive rainfall.

The heaviest rain from Grace is most likely along and to the east of the Sierra Oriental Mountains.

As Grace crosses central Mexico, it can bring a round of heavy rainfall to Mexico City and the surrounding area with 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) possible later Friday night and into Saturday. This can lead to travel disruptions and ponding water in low-lying areas.

Grace will rapidly lose wind intensity while moving westward across Mexico and become a tropical rainstorm on Sunday. However, it is becoming increasingly likely that what is left of the circulation will reemerge in the eastern Pacific by Sunday night.

This satellite image shows Hurricane Grace nearing landfall in Mexico on Friday, Aug. 20, 2021. (AccuWeather RealVue RealVue™ satellite)

"The remaining circulation center of Grace will reach the southwestern coast of Mexico late Sunday or Sunday night and move over the East Pacific," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. "It's possible this system could attempt to re-develop into a tropical depression and even a tropical storm in the East Pacific early next week as it moves due west."

If the storm does redevelop on the Pacific side, it will acquire the next name on the Pacific list, which is Marty.

Additional impacts to Mexico seem unlikely once what is left of Grace enters the Pacific, forecasters say. The system is expected to maintain a westward track away from land and into open waters.

Grace has already lashed parts of the Caribbean earlier this week, including areas in Haiti that took a hit from a major earthquake last weekend.

Torrential rains from Grace fell over portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic Monday night. Grace's stormy conditions hampered rescue and recovery efforts from the enormous temblor. Officials say the earthquake killed over 1,900 people , injured 6,900 others and destroyed thousands of homes.

As a tropical storm and tropical depression, Grace plowed through the Caribbean with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The storm unleashed 13.6 inches of rain on Kingston, Jamaica, in just 24 hours.

During Grace's first landfall in Mexico, wind gusts as high as 85 mph (137 km/h) were reported near Playa Del Carmen, Mexico, as Grace came ashore on Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. The resort town of Cancun recorded a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and gusts to 80 mph (130 km/h).

Winds of 80-90 mph (130-145 km/h) caused widespread power outages and even some structural damage over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and on the island of Cozumel.

Locals remove debris from their homes after the passage of Hurricane Grace, in Tulum, Quintana Roo state, Mexico, on Thursday, August 19, 2021. The Category 1 storm made landfall at 4:45 am, just south of the ancient Mayan temples of Tulum, hitting the Caribbean coast with heavy rain and causing a dangerous storm surge. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)

These winds downed tree branches and power lines in Playa del Carmen, just north of where Grace made landfall, according to The Associated Press. Roofs were also ripped off homes in some areas. Many residents had to seek shelter as the storm menaced the area.

“The only thing I have left is what I’m wearing,” 35-year-old construction worker Carlos González told the AP. “I knew my house wasn’t going to stand it because it’s made of cardboard. When the wind came, I was really scared and decided to leave.” González told the AP that he, along with his wife and 1 1/2-year-old son, had to navigate the dark streets of Tulum with only the flashlight on his cell phone.

At least 180,000 lost electricity across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, local media reported.