By AccuWeather Meteorologist & AccuWeather senior meteorologist & AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug. 14, 2021 12:02 PM EDT | Updated Aug. 15, 2021 8:42 PM EDT
While Fred's journey through the Caribbean had left the storm relatively disorganized during the first half of the weekend, AccuWeather forecasters warn not to underestimate the strengthening storm.
On Sunday morning, Fred increased in wind intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Shortly before 9 a.m., Fred once again became a tropical storm packing sustained winds of 40 mph while moving northwestward at 8 mph.
As of 5 p.m. EDT, Fred was 305 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Fred is rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, storm surge and minor coastal flooding are all likely as a result of Fred, but forecasters are most concerned by the threat of excessive rainfall and localized flooding that could unfold over Florida, as well as the southeastern United States mainland.
For the remainder of the weekend, Fred is forecast to remain well away from land. However, a lot of the moisture from Fred is forecast to impact the Florida Peninsula.
"Wind shear, persistent winds in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, are expected to be out of the southwest through the rest of the weekend, relocating much of Fred's rainfall and thunderstorms east of its center," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Heavy downpours could bring as much as 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) of rainfall to the western shores of the Florida Peninsula. While some stronger thunderstorms could produce some gusty winds in this area as well, the strongest winds from Fred through Sunday night will remain offshore.
Forecasters urge residents and visitors alike across Florida, particularly boating enthusiasts and those along the shoreline, to stay aware of rapidly changing weather conditions and to heed all warnings from officials. Seas and surf are anticipated to increase as Fred passes by, and squalls capable of capsizing small vessels can develop with little notice.
On Sunday, however, many tourists and residents were still soaking in the sunshine at Panama City Beach ahead of the storm, AccuWeather's Bill Wadell reported. Many locals still on the beach told Wadell that they were keeping a close watch on the storm to make sure they had enough time to evacuate safely before its arrival.
Fred's northwestward trajectory is expected to continue through Sunday night, before turning more northerly on Monday and eyeing the Gulf Coast. While Fred is still about 390 miles south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, residents of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should be preparing for this incoming storm.
Preparations picked up across Florida on Friday, when Governor Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 23 counties as Fred began closing in on the Sunshine State. These counties included several in the Florida Panhandle, including Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Wakulla, Walton and Washington. This includes Panama City and Tallahassee, Florida, which account for about 228,000 residents alone.
Governor Kay Ivey of Alabama tweeted that Alabamians should "stay weather aware", and that the government was keeping a close eye on Fred should state-level action be needed.
Delta, Southwest and American airlines are all waiving their change fees in airports across the region expected to be impacted by Fred as many tourists change their flights to earlier dates in an effort to avoid the storm, Wadell reported.
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The warm waters of the Gulf could allow Fred to gain even more wind intensity as it travels north. Water temperatures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico are in the upper 80s, which will favor the strengthening. Even still, Fred is likely to remain a tropical storm for the rest of its life over water. Tropical-storm-force winds begin at 39 mph and gust as high as 73 mph.
More impressive wind gusts are likely to be felt on late Sunday night or Monday as Fred once again nears land.
"As Fred nears the Florida Panhandle, wind gusts of 40-60 mph will occur, mostly in coastal and western portions of the Panhandle, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph," said Douty. While wind gusts within this range can also occur in far southeastern Mississippi, winds should diminish rapidly as Fred moves inland.
The highest wind speeds are likely to be recorded where Fred's eyewall moves ashore, and could bring power outages to the region. At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists predict Fred will make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle.
In southern Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle is likely to be the target of some of the highest rainfall totals from Fred as well.
"As much as 4-8 inches and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches can fall near and just east of landfall," said Douty.
Fortunately, Fred is forecast to move rather quickly this week, limiting the chances for days and days of rainfall for the region. However, just 24 hours of heavy tropical rainfall deluging the same area could bring flash flooding. As of Sunday morning, flash flood watches were issued by the National Weather Service across the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Additionally, the pouring rainfall will bring travel slowness and disruptions to outdoor plans.
As the week progresses, Fred is forecast to move inland across Alabama, before turning northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, losing wind intensity as it does so.
"By the middle of the week, Fred's circulation may dissipate enough to make it difficult to track exactly where the center of the tropical rainstorm is. Nonetheless, the tropical moisture will remain," explained Douty.
Widespread 1-2 inches of rain is forecast from the Mississippi-Alabama border and southern Georgia on northward into West Virginia and central Virginia. The concentration of heaviest rain, aside from the Gulf Coast, is likely to be in the Appalachian Mountains of northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina, where over 4 inches of rain is possible.
This area of the country is one that has already been drenched by flooding rainfall this year. Birmingham, Alabama, reported 165% of the cities normal rainfall during the months of June and July. As such, the water-logged region could experience flash flooding as the tropical rainfall moves in.
One area that could use the rain is across West Virginia and Virginia, where abnormally dry and slight drought conditions were reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor last week. Steady rainfall in this area may help out the dry conditions in that region.
Well behind Fred, Grace is forecast to travel through the Caribbean, impacting several of the same islands that were just hit by Fred a few days ago, before eyeing the U.S.
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