By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Aug. 11, 2021 1:33 PM EDT | Updated Aug. 12, 2021 9:22 PM EDT
As Fred impacted parts of the Caribbean with strong winds and heavy rain on Wednesday and Wednesday night, AccuWeather meteorologists were tracking an emerging tropical threat, designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), that could soon follow in Fred's footsteps.
AccuWeather forecasters have been monitoring what is now Fred since it emerged as a tropical wave last week. It eventually became more organized as it crossed the Lesser Antilles and moved into the Caribbean Sea on Monday night. By Tuesday night, the feature strengthened into a tropical storm, then weakened into a tropical depression on Wednesday night.
Visible satellite imagery of Fred on Thursday morning revealed how disorganized the feature had become after it passed over Hispaniola. The low-level circulation can be seen near the eastern tip of Cuba while the more robust thunderstorms are offset to the east over Hispaniola.
This satellite image shows a disorganized Tropical Depression Fred swirling over the northern Caribbean on Thursday morning. (AccuWeather)
As of 8 p.m. Thursday, EDT, Fred had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) as it drifted toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The NOAA and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft were investigating Fred on Thursday evening as it swept by the northern shore of Cuba.
Bands of heavy rain and gusty winds from Fred will continue to impact Hispaniola on Thursday, which can lead to some sporadic power outages as well as increase the risk for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas, said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.
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As Fred moved over Hispaniola on Wednesday night, the storm weakened to a depression upon encountering the island's rugged terrain. The highest peak on the island rises over 10,000 feet (3,000 meters). This drastic change in terrain increased the friction Fred faced over land, aiding in the storm becoming less organized and losing wind intensity.
Rapid intensification is not expected on Thursday as Fred continues to contend with land interaction from nearby islands and some light wind shear over the area.
Fred is forecast to reorganize gradually as it skirts the northern coast of Cuba and could return to tropical storm strength (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph) as early as Friday morning.
Fred is forecast to track along the northern coast of Cuba through Friday, bringing rain, wind and rough seas to the island. Similarly, whether or not Fred acquires additional strength will depend on just how close to land the storm tracks as it moves past Cuba on its way to the U.S.
Fred is expected to continue bringing wind gusts of up to 50 mph (80 km/h) to Hispaniola on Thursday morning. These wind gusts are also expected along the northern coast of Cuba, but the strongest gusts are forecast to remain offshore.
Regardless of strength, Fred can bring widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) as it passes through the northern Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. Along the south-facing mountain slopes of Hispaniola, rainfall totals climbed to around 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (300 mm), most likely to occur in the highest peaks of the island into Thursday. This amount of rainfall can lead to flash flooding, mudslides, washouts and road closures.
"Tropical Depression Fred is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes in Hispaniola and Cuba due to the impacts expected from heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts," stated Zartman. The RealImpact™ is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5 and takes into consideration a variety of diverse, contributing factors, such as flooding rain, high winds and storm surge as well as the total damage and economic impact from the storm.
Depending on how Fred survives its trek through the Caribbean, it is forecast to make a turn to the north and bring impacts to the southeastern United States this weekend.
Residents along the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor this feature through the rest of the week for potential impacts.
Tropical Depression Fred expected to take a track similar to Tropical Storm Elsa, which raced through the region during early July, but it is important to remember that each storm is different, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Atlantic to stay active beyond Fred
AccuWeather forecasters are already monitoring a tropical wave tracking across the Atlantic Ocean for potential development late this week or into the beginning of next week.
This tropical low will have to battle elevated wind shear across the basin, but as it reaches the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean, wind shear is expected to decrease, and the wave may have an opportunity to become better organized, explained Kottlowski.
Development potential will increase if this low drifts farther south as it moves into the Caribbean, where wind shear levels are lower.
Kottlowski also added that the strength of Fred and how it might influence the Bermuda high over the Atlantic Ocean can play a part in which direction Invest 95L moves into next week.
"At this time, it looks like this wave is destined to move into the Caribbean then the eastern Gulf of Mexico, similar to Fred, but with a track a bit more to the west," Kottlowski said on Wednesday, adding that this feature could bring impacts to the United States by the end of next week if it holds together.
The next name on the list of storms for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is Grace.
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