weather.com meteorologists
Hurricane Elsa is quickly headed toward Hispaniola, then Jamaica and Cuba later this weekend before a potential track toward Florida and the Southeast U.S.
(MORE: Track Hurricane Elsa Here)
Elsa's center is about 100 miles south of the Dominican Republic and quickly moving through Caribbean at around 30 mph.
This quick forward speed appears to be producing shearing winds, which has weakened the hurricane a bit since Friday, after it had previously rapidly intensified.
Outer rainbands are affecting parts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and tropical storm-force winds are nearing the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
Current Satellite and Wind FieldCurrent Alerts
Hurricane warnings are in effect for southern Haiti from Port-au-Prince south and the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward where hurricane conditions are expected later Saturday.
A hurricane warning is also in effect in Jamaica, meaning hurricane conditions are expected by Sunday for the island.
A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of eastern and southern Cuba, meaning hurricane conditions are possible on Sunday.
A tropical storm warning has also been issued for the rest of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and portions of northern Haiti where tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, but not for Grand Cayman.
Forecast Details
Elsa will continue to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of the Bermuda High through this weekend.
By Saturday night, that will put the center very near southwest Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula.
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
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Up to 15 inches of rain could fall in southern portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with much of the southern portions of the country picking up 4 to 8 inches. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. That said, the system's fast forward speed will limit the heavy rain threat that might otherwise be greater.
Current Status and Forecast PathElsa will then sweep through Jamaica on Sunday, then Cuba Sunday into Monday.
Up to 15 inches of rain could fall in Jamaica, with much of the southern portions of the country picking up 4 to 8 inches. A storm surge of up to 3 feet is possible in Jamaica.
Further west, in Cuba and the Cayman Islands, heavy rain and a storm surge are expected to arrive Sunday into Monday. These islands can expect 5 to 10 inches of rainfall and, in Cuba, a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is possible.
U.S. Forecast Uncertainty
The forecast for Elsa's eventual impact in the Southeast U.S., including Florida, remains tricky.
First, as mentioned earlier, Elsa's fast westward movement may keep a lid on its strength this weekend in the Caribbean Sea.
Elsa may then track over much of Cuba from through Monday morning, which would also take a toll on its intensity.
Then the key is how soon and how sharp a right-hand turn Elsa makes Monday as it reaches the edge of the Bermuda high.
While the uncertainty is narrowing a bit, the possibilities of Elsa still range from tracks in the eastern Gulf well west of the Florida Peninsula, to tracks near or over the Florida Peninsula, to a few lingering model tracks east of the Peninsula over the western Bahamas.
For now, the most likely forecast is for a tropical storm near Florida to begin having at least some impacts later Monday in south Florida and the Keys, then spreading northward up the peninsula Tuesday.
These impacts could then spread into other parts of the Southeast Wednesday into Thursday.
Tropical Storm Wind ChancesCheck back to weather.com for updates over the next few days as the forecast uncertainty is narrowed down.
Elsa Recap
Tropical Depression Five formed late Wednesday night while it was about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands.
The system then became Tropical Storm Elsa six hours later on July 1, the earliest forming fifth named Atlantic storm on record in the satellite era (since 1966). The old record was held by Edouard, which developed a year ago on the evening of July 5.
Elsa also formed unusually far south and east for so early in the hurricane season, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist, Phil Klotzbach.
The following morning, Elsa became the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on July 2, almost six weeks earlier than the average date of the season's first Atlantic hurricane.
Elsa brought hurricane force gusts to Barbados and St. Lucia Friday morning. A sustained wind of 74 mph and gust of 86 mph was measured on Barbados early Friday. A wind gust of 79 mph was reported in St. Lucia.
The name Elsa is new to the list of rotating names being used this season. This year's list was last used in 2015, but Erika was the "E" storm that year.
Erika was retired after it caused deadly and destructive flooding in the Caribbean Island of Dominica. Elsa replaced it.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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