By AccuWeather meteorologist
On this image captured on Monday morning, June 28, 2021, a swirl of clouds associated with the next candidate for a tropical depression and storm in the Atlantic can be seen in the lower part of the atmosphere off the South Carolina coast. At the same time, strong winds high in the atmosphere were blowing thunderstorms onshore in Georgia, southern South Carolina and northern Florida. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
All has been quiet in the Atlantic basin since Claudette swept through the Southeast, but AccuWeather meteorologists say that could change in quick fashion early this week.
A vigorous area of disturbed weather off the Southeast coast has a short window to develop into the fourth tropical depression or storm prior to moving inland over South Carolina Monday evening, according to forecasters. And, there are a couple of other areas being monitored farther south in the basin.
Forecasters are giving this feature a medium to high chance to develop prior to moving inland. The next name on the list for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is Danny.
The area of concern closest to U.S. soil is a small low pressure system located about 190 miles east-southeast of Hilton Head, South Carolina, as of 8 a.m. EDT Monday.
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature remained disorganized and displaced to the west of the center of the storm early Monday morning, due to strong easterly winds in the middle and upper portion of the atmosphere.
"This feature will not have much time for development before it moves into South Carolina late Monday or early Monday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Still, this system's path toward the west-northwest will bring it over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on Monday, which could foster development into a short-lived tropical depression or even tropical storm.
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Regardless of development, downpours and thunderstorms will continue to push inland over Georgia and parts of South Carolina and northern Florida through Monday night.
Several inches of rain may fall in a narrow zone in parts of southeastern Georgia and South Carolina.
"Gusty winds are possible with this storm, but the main threat to land will be any persistent downpours where flash flooding is possible, especially in any low-lying and poor drainage areas," AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo said.
Rough surf and stronger-than-normal rip currents are also likely along the Southeast coast as this system churns up the ocean.
There is a chance of a couple of isolated waterspouts and tornadoes as the system approaches the coast during Monday evening and then pushes inland Monday night.
The intensity of these effects will be dependent on the organization of the feature prior to landfall.
Should this feature organize into a tropical depression or storm, it would be what meteorologists often refer to as a "homebrew" storm, or a storm that develops not far off the United States coast.
The National Hurricane Center may send an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft to investigate the disturbance on Monday afternoon, if necessary.
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will progress farther inland and may reach the southern Appalachians on Tuesday and the Tennessee Valley by the middle of the week.
"The other feature that will be monitored for development is an area of low pressure embedded within a robust tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that is producing areas of rain and thunderstorms," Douty said.
This low, which has been designated as Invest 95L, has been on the radar of AccuWeather meteorologists since last week.
"There can be some gradual development with this as it tracks across the Atlantic and it is possible that this can gain enough organization to become a tropical depression during the first half of the week," Douty said.
Even if this feature fails to organize into a tropical system, gusty showers and thunderstorms are still likely in the Lesser Antilles and northwestern Caribbean around the middle of the week, forecasters say.
There is a third, suspicious area of showers and thunderstorms being monitored as well.
This image, captured on Monday morning, June 28, 2021, shows a broad area of disturbed weather associated with showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. (CIRA at Colorado State/ GOES-East)
A broad area of disturbed weather has been lingering over the western Gulf of Mexico since this weekend. A very weak circulation was evident on satellite photos and radar loops over the Gulf near the border of Texas and Mexico.
This disturbance is likely to push inland by midweek and end any chance of development. However, the broad area of disturbed weather will continue to produce downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms over the western Gulf, southeastern Texas and northeastern Mexico into Wednesday.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 16-20 named storms, of which seven to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes. Thus far in 2021 there have been three tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.
Meanwhile, waters off the coast of southern Mexico were the breeding ground of the first hurricane of 2021 -- Enrique. Enrique will continue to douse southern Mexico with heavy rainfall early this week, possibly making landfall in a weakened state on the southern tip of Baja California.
Some moisture from Enrique may be drawn northward and into the southwestern U.S. late this week or this weekend.
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