Potential Gulf Tropical Depression or Storm Could Pose Heavy Rain Threat to U.S. Gulf Coast

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: June 15, 2021

A tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and no matter how well organized this system becomes, it poses a threat of flooding rain along a part of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast heading into Father's Day weekend.

There is a high chance of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico beginning later this week, according to the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This potential system has been tagged Invest 92L, which is a naming convention used by NHC to track disturbances being monitored for the possible development into a tropical depression or storm.

(MORE: What is an Invest?)

Claudette will be the name given to the next tropical storm that forms in the Atlantic.

Potential NHC Development

Invest 92L is currently a broad area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, or Bay of Campeche, that's producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall in that region could trigger flooding in parts of southern Mexico.

Computer forecast models have been consistently suggesting over the past several days that low pressure may become better defined as Invest 92L gets drawn northward through the western Gulf of Mexico late this week.

This festering area of low pressure over warmer-than-average water may eventually sprout enough thunderstorms to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

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There are a couple of factors this system will have to overcome to develop and strengthen that are typical this early in the hurricane season.

Wind shear –– changing wind speeds and/or direction with height –– is forecast to be at least moderate strength over the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear can disrupt tropical systems by blowing thunderstorms away from the developing surface low pressure center. In this case, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be blown northeastward away from any center that forms.

Forecast Wind Shear

This system might also have to battle dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and from the continental U.S. at times.

The majority of computer model guidance suggests this system will move north in the western Gulf of Mexico, which could eventually bring it toward the northern or western U.S. Gulf Coast by Friday or Saturday.

Regardless of the exact track or strength of this system, this system may wring out heavy rain along the northern Gulf Coast beginning as soon as Friday and lingering into the weekend. This includes already soaked parts of Louisiana and the lower Mississippi Valley.

Our long-range rainfall outlook shows the potential for heavier rain this weekend from parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This threat could be in play no matter how much this potential future western Gulf system organizes.

Rainfall potential depends largely on how fast, or slow, a storm moves. It doesn't matter how strong a tropical system's winds become.

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Some locally heavy rain could even linger in parts of the Southeast Monday as the remnant is pulled east ahead of a strong cold front arriving from the central U.S.

It's too early to pinpoint exactly what areas might see flooding this weekend. For now, residents along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the forecast closely.

Building surf, higher than normal tides and dangerous rip currents will also be threats on the northern Gulf Coast late week into the weekend.

June Gulf Storms

June storms in the Gulf of Mexico are fairly typical.

Since 2000, there have 16 named storms in the Gulf of Mexico. Eleven of those made a U.S. landfall.

Tracks of all June Gulf of Mexico named storms from 2000 through 2020.

The most recent one was last year. Tropical Storm Cristobal formed from the remnant of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, then made landfall in southeast Louisiana.

Other June Gulf storms were prolific flood producers, including Debby in 2012 in Florida and Allison's $9 billion flood in 2001 in Houston.

The last June Gulf hurricane was in 2010.

Hurricane Alex made a Category 2 landfall in northeast Mexico triggered massive flooding in Monterrey, Mexico, where up to 35 inches of rain fell.

June Gulf U.S. hurricane landfalls are extremely rare. The last one was Hurricane Bonnie, 35 years ago.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.